When asked during her campaign last year whether she had any intention of supporting redistricting if elected governor of Virginia, Abigail Spanberger replied: “Short answer is no.” The long answer was also no. It was always no. Redistricting was one of the very few issues where Spanberger, who mostly stuck to vague, non-threatening platitudes during her run, took a firm stand. In the past, she’d preached that gerrymandering was “detrimental to our democracy” and that opposing it “should be a bipartisan priority.”
Politicians break promises all the time, I guess, but it took her only a few days after her inauguration to go back on hers and sign legislation for a special referendum on some of the most aggressive gerrymandering efforts in modern history. The smell of stale coffee from my desk is particularly strong this morning—or maybe it’s just the cynicism of reading these campaign filings again. Back in 2020, Virginia actually voted for a constitutional amendment meant to limit partisan bias by creating a bipartisan commission. When that group deadlocked, the state Supreme Court stepped in and appointed a duo that produced a 6-5 map, which seemed like a pretty fair reflection of the electorate.
But here we are. The Left’s “yes” campaign is pushing hard with ads featuring ominous clips of Donald Trump and activists warning that votes are being stolen, all while claiming this “temporary” measure will “restore fairness.” Former President Barack Obama is on the radio every five minutes arguing that a “yes” vote “gives you the power to level the playing field.”
What’s his version of fairness? Well, it involves taking that 6-5 split and turning it into a 10-1 advantage for the Democrats. Even though Kamala Harris took the state with 51% of the vote, they clearly want 90% of the House seats. It’s a bold move, or maybe just a reckless one. There is nothing “temporary” about locking Republicans out of House elections entirely. That is probably why $40 million has poured into the “yes” campaign—a lot of it from out of state, including $5 million from George Soros—while the “no” side has scraped together only $8 million.
Whatever happens on April 21, there really isn’t any upside for Spanberger. She spent a decade acting like a moderate, but after being captured by the hard left in the legislature, she’s already been branded as unreliable. Her approval rating is brutal for someone only a few months into the job. According to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, only 47% approve of her performance, making her the least popular governor this century. Actually, no other governor has hit such low numbers this early. Her predecessor, Glenn Youngkin, averaged 54% approval.
If the redistricting passes, the blowback will be significant. If it fails? Well, voters will have seen their governor bet the house on a nationalized issue instead of focusing on Virginia, and then lose anyway. She might have bigger aspirations—or maybe she’s already hit her ceiling.