Trump’s sinking – Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie was defeated in a costly Republican primary on May 19 by Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, underscoring a hard political reality: Trump can be increasingly unpopular with key voter blocs while still keeping a firm hold on the G
When the votes came in, Thomas Massie’s political comeback didn’t make it to the finish line. On May 19. the seven-term Kentucky congressman lost the Republican nomination for an eighth term in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District—defeated by Ed Gallrein. a challenger backed by President Donald Trump.
The setback wasn’t just a routine primary loss. It came after Massie crossed Trump on issues that ranged from war to taxes to the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Trump. for his part. made the fight personal on Truth Social. urging that Massie “must be thrown out of office. ASAP!” Two days later. Republican voters in Kentucky moved decisively.
Massie’s defeat in what the article describes as the most expensive House primary in history landed with a message for the rest of the party: in this political climate, crossing Trump can be punished quickly—regardless of wider signs that voters are starting to sour on him.
Across the country, other Republicans also ran into trouble after going against Trump’s preferences. In Georgia. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. who had been opposed by Trump for defending the state’s 2020 election results. finished third in his bid for the Republican nomination for governor. In Louisiana, another Trump target, two-term Sen. Bill Cassidy, failed to even make the Republican runoff in a primary held three days earlier than May 19. That race was led by Rep. Julia Letlow, who won Trump’s endorsement, and state Treasurer John Fleming, who emphasized his fealty to the president. The piece also notes that it was the first time since 2012 that a previously elected senator was defeated in a primary.
In Indiana, at least five of seven state senators who had defied Trump’s demands to redraw congressional maps lost their nomination battles earlier in May.
Even so, Trump’s grip on the GOP sits uncomfortably beside data showing his political standing among key voters weakening. The article says Trump’s aggregate approval rating has dropped below 40% for the first time in his second term. citing the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. It frames that number as a red alert for Republicans on the ballot in November. pointing out that a president’s approval rating is the single most reliable predictor of how the president’s party candidates tend to fare in midterm elections.
The key contradiction—one that Massie’s defeat helps make visible—is that Trump can face rising disapproval in broader segments of the electorate while still winning internal party fights and dominating candidate selection.
Cook Political Report PollTracker trends show where the erosion is happening. Trump’s support among Gen Z voters is described as collapsing: in the 2024 election. he narrowed the traditional Democratic advantage among voters 18 to 29. with his 43% share in CNN exit polls reflecting a notable improvement for Republicans. Now the swing is stark. The article says he has a net disapproval among younger voters of 38 percentage points, with just 29% approving and 67% disapproving. It ties that change to concern about the economy and opposition to the war with Iran.
Latino voters show another sharp divide. The piece says Trump made significant inroads in 2024 with support of 46%. but today Hispanics disapprove of his job by nearly 2-1. 64% to 33%. It adds that the swing among Latino voters—which is also linked to economic concerns—could be crucial in races in Texas. Florida and elsewhere this fall.
Independents, a group that often decides competitive elections, are described as pulling back as well. Trump won 46% of their votes in 2024. Now he is under water among independents by 41 points, 68%-27%.
The pressure is real—especially when these groups combine the kind of broad electoral reach that can shape outcomes in November. Yet the article’s most striking takeaway is that Trump’s political strength inside the Republican Party remains stubbornly intact.
For instance, his approval rating with members of his own party is said to average 81%. That is lower than the 94% who voted for him in 2024. but the figure is still described as healthy—higher than how either Barack Obama or George W. Bush were rated by their partisans at the same point in their presidencies.
That foundation helps explain how Trump can sway Republican primaries and often calm unrest on Capitol Hill, even as the Iran war concern is “testing that,” according to the framing of the article.
The data also shows that Trump remains steady with older voters. Voters 65 and older now divide 45% approve and 44% disapprove, a split the article says is close to their nearly even split in 2024, when 50% voted for Trump and 49% for Democrat Kamala Harris.
White Protestant evangelicals remain among Trump’s most loyal supporters. The piece says that in 2024, more than eight in 10 voted for him. In an April NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. Trump’s approval rating in that demographic was 64%-34%—still described as nearly a 2-1 advantage. Among those who said they voted for him in 2024, the article reports 84% approved of the job he was doing.
Even the moments captured outside election math reflect the same split between broader dissatisfaction and core loyalty. On May 17. the daylong Rededicate 250 celebration at the National Mall included a prayer-focused program marking the approaching 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. The article describes the crowd as scattered with MAGA caps and declarations of allegiance to the president. with Trump and top lieutenants addressing the gathering by video and in person.
Shelley Tufts, 53, who runs a home for children in Opelika, Alabama, was there for the prayer event. “We just have to keep showing up,” she said. Before the election. she told the article. “we had lost just about every one of our freedoms.” She added that Trump has “done a good job of turning things around.” The piece reports that her support is unwavering.
The sequence is difficult to miss: while Cook Political Report measures point to weakening approval among younger voters. Latinos. and independents. the same polling landscape shows high approval among Republicans. seniors. and evangelicals—an overlap that can keep primary voters aligned even when the president’s broader popularity slips.
For Thomas Massie, the politics were personal. After he crossed Trump on issues ranging from war to taxes to the Jeffrey Epstein files, Trump recruited challenger Ed Gallrein, and Gallrein won the May 19 contest.
Trump’s approval may be sinking into “dangerous territory,” as the article frames it, but the GOP machinery inside primaries still appears to be driven by voters who remain convinced—and ready to vote punishment into the party’s future.
Thomas Massie Ed Gallrein Trump endorsement Kentucky 4th District primary Cook Political Report Amy Walter Gen Z approval Latino voters independents Republican primary Brad Raffensperger Bill Cassidy Julia Letlow John Fleming political approval rating