Should you – VOO just became the first ETF to top $1 trillion in assets as the S&P 500 surged toward an all-time high. But with the Shiller CAPE ratio at 41—the highest since the dotcom boom—this near-peak moment comes with a warning: investors may not want to load up too
When the S&P 500 climbs again, it rarely feels like a question—more like momentum you’re supposed to chase. Over the past month, the index has gained about 17%, reaching 7,430 and sitting just two weeks removed from its all-time high of 7,620 on June 2.
On that kind of tape, investors have been pouring into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, VOO. The ETF. the largest in the world. recently crossed a historic line of $1 trillion in assets—the first ETF to do so. Its growth hasn’t been subtle. Over the last three years. VOO accumulated about $386 billion in net assets. more than one-third of its total assets. and that surge tracked closely with the concurrent S&P 500 bull market.
In the past month alone, VOO gathered roughly $50 billion in net assets as the market surge gathered pace.
But history has a way of showing up right when investors feel safest. The last time VOO saw significant net outflows was in March 2026. when the war in Iran coincided with a decline in the S&P 500. Now. with losses erased and the index at a fresh peak. the question is simple: should investors expect the same kind of reversal again—or are conditions different enough to justify piling in?.
The short answer is yes—at least in the sense that the risk isn’t imaginary.
The Shiller CAPE ratio is historically high, and it isn’t a small elevation. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is at 41, the highest since the dotcom boom in 1999. It’s also higher than it was in October 2021, before the 2022 bear market.
The argument here isn’t that a repeat is guaranteed. It’s that investors have been here before when CAPE reached this level: in both recent instances. a correction or bear market followed. The article stops short of promising a downturn in 2026, but it emphasizes that investors should be ready for one.
There’s another layer to the concern, too—conditions that don’t feel like a clean runway for stocks. The war is still dragging on. Inflation is rising. Consumer confidence is low. The job market is mixed. Uncertainty is high, and interest rates are also part of the picture. The conditions are described as not that different from those during the first-quarter market slowdown.
The difference now is the valuation level, which is why the CAPE number matters so much. When investors pay more for future earnings, the margin for error shrinks.
So what should someone do if VOO is meant to be a staple in a portfolio, but the market is near all-time highs? The recommendation is not to abandon the idea of owning the S&P 500—rather, it suggests diversifying into ETFs that tend to perform well in downturns, such as dividend ETFs.
One example offered is the WisdomTree U.S. High Dividend ETF (NYSEMKT: DHS), which tracks a proprietary index of stocks expected to pay the highest dividends. DHS gained 8% in 2022, a year when the bear market took a 19% bite out of the S&P 500. It is also described as up 13% year to date, beating the S&P 500.
The point is timing: with VOO already seeing massive inflows—$50 billion in net assets in a single month—and the S&P 500 sitting near a peak, the article suggests it might be a good time to hold off on adding more VOO shares and instead consider adding DHS or a similar dividend ETF.
A separate portion of the source content also notes that the Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team identified 10 stocks they believe are among the best for investors to buy now. and that Vanguard S&P 500 ETF wasn’t one of them. It includes examples tied to recommendations. including Netflix on December 17. 2004. and Nvidia on April 15. 2005. with cited values and a “Stock Advisor returns as of June 14. 2026” figure. It also states that Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. while The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. and that The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Still. the centerpiece of the question—VOO near all-time highs—comes down to this: VOO’s asset milestone and inflows are real. the S&P 500’s run is real. and so is the valuation signal. With the Shiller CAPE ratio at 41 and the market only weeks from its peak. the challenge for investors isn’t whether the S&P 500 can keep going—it’s how much risk they’re willing to take while the price is already doing the heavy lifting.
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF S&P 500 all-time high net assets Shiller CAPE dividend ETFs DHS WisdomTree U.S. High Dividend ETF
$1T for VOO is crazy… but CAPE 41 sounds like a warning label lol.
So basically it’s first ETF to $1 trillion and then they’re like “don’t buy more”?? Confusing. I thought when the S&P is near highs you just ride it.
Wait are they saying CAPE ratio is 41 bc of the war in Iran? I mean I get markets react but that seems like they’re connecting dots that aren’t connected. Also S&P always goes up until it doesn’t, so I don’t see the big “red flag.”
I don’t even know what Shiller CAPE is but “highest since the dotcom boom” is enough for me. Like dotcom ended bad, right? If VOO is gathering $50B in a month then it’s probably just being inflated by people panicking to get in before it drops. I’d wait… or buy anyway. Not sure.