Trump-backed candidates hold nearly perfect record in GOP primaries

Trump-backed candidates – President Donald Trump is boasting a 98% win rate in GOP primary endorsements, a figure that underscores how much influence he still holds inside the party. But a closer look shows a more complicated picture—incumbents running unopposed, runoffs that count as

For the third time in a week. Donald Trump walked into a political moment with the same message: his touch turns primary wins into victories. On June 24. he posted on social media to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani after Mamdani’s preferred candidates swept three Democratic primaries on June 23 for Congress.

“Congratulations Mr. Mayor,” Trump wrote in a June 24 social media post aimed at Mamdani. “I went 16-0 last night, helping to elect wonderful American patriots, and the media doesn’t say a word.”

It was a brag—one backed by a record that. at first glance. looks close to unstoppable as Republicans reorganize for the 2026 midterms. A review of Trump’s picks by Ballotpedia, a digital encyclopedia of U.S. politics and elections. shows that out of 312 primary endorsements. Trump carries a 98% success rate in GOP contests across congressional. state legislative and statewide elections.

But the political arithmetic underneath Trump’s win streak is messier than the scoreboard suggests.

That’s because some of the “wins” came without the kind of contest that tests a candidate’s appeal inside their own party. In six of the 16 elections Trump cited that night, he backed an incumbent without a primary challenger—such as Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, a moderate who ran unopposed. The president also appears to be counting the South Carolina runoff for governor as two wins after endorsing both candidates in that race.

In other cases. the endorsement power is being felt less like a campaign boost and more like a governing force reshaping who survives in Washington and who doesn’t. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, Texas Sen. John Cornyn and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie have all been pushed out of office this year after disagreeing with Trump at one point or another. Trump also helped fuel a fight in Indiana in which his network’s muscle went into defeating five of the seven Indiana state legislators who defied him on redrawing the state’s congressional maps.

Political observers say Trump wields influence in ways that previous presidents typically avoided, steering clear of intra-party battles rather than driving them.

Mark P. Jones, a Rice University political science professor, put it bluntly: “There’s no modern president whose influence within his party has come anywhere close to that of Donald Trump in terms of both being willing to endorse and then having such success with his endorsements.”

“It’s very difficult for someone to win if Trump has endorsed their opponent,” Jones added. “It’s not impossible but in an overwhelming majority of races his endorsed candidate wins, and that’s really shaped Republican politics in Congress and even down to the state legislative level.”

Trump’s interest can reach beyond the top of the ticket, too.

In Texas, for example, Trump sided with Attorney General Ken Paxton over Cornyn. He also put his finger on the scale for former state Sen. Don Huffines for state comptroller. calling him a “MAGA warrior” and someone who “has been with me from the very beginning. ” in a February endorsement. Despite being a former rival of Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott for many years, Huffines won the GOP primary with 57% of the vote. He defeated Kelly Hancock, a longtime Abbott ally who the governor appointed to the seat in July.

When Trump uses timing and pressure, the relationship between endorsement and outcome can get even tighter.

One shift, National Public Radio found, is how early Trump signals preference. The average Trump primary endorsement came seven weeks before a midterm primary election in 2018. This year. the seal of approval arrives roughly seven months before the contest. often in safe seats where the Republican is unopposed.

In May, Trump also endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Barr in the Republican Kentucky U.S. Senate primary after asking one of Barr’s opponents, businessman Nate Morris, to drop out of the race and promising Morris a role in his administration as an ambassador.

Supporters in the conservative movement see it as agenda-setting. Chip Wyatt, a former aide to Sen. Mike Lee. R-Utah. who now serves as a lobbyist for Heritage Action. the political advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation. said Trump is “setting the agenda for the Republican party at the moment. and that’s an agenda that I think the vast majority of Republican voters agree with.”.

But in Washington, loyalty tests also come with a price tag.

The biggest feature of this cycle’s GOP primary headlines is that Trump is explicitly imposing loyalty on Republican candidates. And that can produce resistance once lawmakers feel the constraints closing in.

In a closed-door June 24 meeting with Senate GOP members. Trump reportedly got into a shouting match with Cassidy over the Iran war. Cassidy later told reporters after the meeting that his “original objectives have not been achieved. ” that Trump “did not particularly care for my comments. ” and that Trump “raised his voice.”.

If Trump’s success in primaries strengthens loyalty with the base, it also leaves Republican candidates facing general elections with fewer openings to distance themselves.

A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released June 18 found 80% of Republicans approving of the job Trump is doing. versus 5% of Democrats and 28% of independents. A survey by the American Research Group conducted June 16-20 found 67% of Republicans gave Trump a thumbs up on the way he is handling his job. while only 30% of Americans overall said the same. Among independent voters, the survey found just 25% approve while 69% disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president.

The White House dismissed the findings, telling USA TODAY the “ultimate poll” was in 2024.

Jones argued the consequence for Republican candidates in competitive areas is stark. With near-absolute loyalty demanded. he said. it becomes “very difficult for Republicans in very competitive races where he is underwater in their district or state to distance themselves from the president.” He added: “There’s no real way for Republicans to distance themselves from him. so at very least they need to utilize him to motivate his supporters to turn out to vote in an election where he’s not on the ballot.”.

As that base-mobilization strategy takes shape, the Republican National Committee is planning a first-ever midterm convention this summer. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. locked in a closely watched Senate race against Democrat James Talarico after Trump’s endorsement helped him vanquish Cornyn. reportedly said during a June 15 tele-hall event that the midterm RNC will be held in Dallas and Trump will be speaking to it.

Democrats are watching the same tightening and seeing leverage.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. chair of the Democratic Governors Association. told USA TODAY in an interview that Trump’s tightening grip is an opportunity to tie Republican candidates to a president Democrats argue has worsened day-to-day life: “Each of these Trump-endorsed candidates has pledged their loyalty to a president that has made the lives of our American families that much harder and people are much worse off for Donald Trump’s leadership.”.

Even as Trump allies boast about the power of endorsements, polls and races show room for voters to cross lines in the general election.

A Fox News poll released June 3 found 31% of self-identified non-MAGA Republican voters willing to support former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown over GOP incumbent Jon Husted. In Nevada—where Gov. Joe Lombardo. who Trump endorsed last year. faces a tough battle against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford—Ford’s campaign has been dogged by tying the incumbent to the president in multiple attack ads.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Nevada’s contest as a “toss-up” race in a swing state Trump won by roughly 3 percentage points in 2024. Some of the negative ads. the coverage notes. mix Lombardo’s comments—like urging voters to “need to maybe feel a little pain” in response to the administration’s trade war with the president’s comments on inflation and rising costs.

Ford told USA TODAY in an interview: “The fact of the matter is Trump and Lombardo are two peas in a pod.” He added: “Nevadans know that this is a race that’s between a folder and a fighter, someone who lies down for Trump or someone who stands up – and that’s me.”

Still, the Trump record isn’t flawless inside the MAGA ecosystem.

In Iowa’s gubernatorial primary, Republican voters went with Zach Lahn in a bruising five-person primary over Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra. Trump made another last-minute entry for Feenstra—endorsing him four days before the election against Lahn—after Feenstra’s campaign benefited from attention late in the contest. Lahn won by less than 1 percentage point. Lahn ran heavily on an “Iowa First” agenda aligned with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.

Georgia provided another example. Trump came up short in the Georgia gubernatorial primary this year when Lt. Gov. Burt Jones lost to Rick Jackson, a wealthy health care CEO who poured millions into that race. Even so, Trump still took credit after the fact. In a June 17 social media post. he said: “Congratulations to Rick Jackson. who very successfully campaigned on being ‘TRUMP. ’ and won. He will be your next Governor of Georgia. Can’t wait!”.

Wyatt said congressional Republicans and other contenders must show voters they took every opportunity to implement Trump’s agenda. He also pointed to a broader governing style: “One of the things that’s been clear from how President Trump has governed in this term is that he’s very much encouraged the GOP in Congress to leave it out on the field to the best of their ability.”.

For voters who are watching what primary wins mean for the next fight. the contradiction is already becoming visible: Trump’s endorsements can dominate Republican primaries almost like a shortcut. but loyalty can also narrow choices for candidates facing general elections—and that can matter in the closing weeks before voters decide who leads.

With five months left until the 2026 elections, Trump’s influence is not just political capital. It is a moving target—measured in win rates, but felt most sharply in who feels they must obey, who is willing to break, and who takes the risk when the general election gets closer.

Trump GOP primaries 2026 midterms Ballotpedia endorsements MAGA campaign influence RNC convention loyalty tests Iran war Cassidy Cornyn Massie Nevada Sherrod Brown Jon Husted