Tomato prices surge after freezes; summer may bring relief

Tomatoflation and – After severe winter freezes in Florida and production setbacks in Mexico, U.S. tomato prices hit record highs in April and remained elevated in May. Economists and growers disagree on how much recent U.S. duties played a role—but most agree the supply shock is

For Florida shoppers who thought the grocery bill couldn’t get much worse. the tomatoes were the reminder that food inflation still has a pulse. By May 2026, the U.S. average price for tomatoes climbed to $2.489 a pound—up from $1.705 a year earlier. And in April, the national average hit a record high of $2.689 a pound, nearly 40% higher than the prior year.

The spike didn’t come from one farm problem. It came from disruptions that landed right where the U.S. relies on fresh supply in winter and early spring. Severe winter freezes in Florida and setbacks in Mexico—where 70% of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. are grown—combined to create what growers and economists have been calling “Tomatoflation.”.

Florida, the largest producer of fresh tomatoes in the United States, took a direct hit. Two severe winter freezes early this year caused production losses to 80% of the 27. 900 acres where tomatoes are grown in Florida by commercial farms. The result was an estimated $164 million in losses for Florida’s tomato industry. Florida Agriculture Secretary Wilton Simpson put the wider cost to the state’s agricultural industry at $3.17 billion.

Guenther, who manages the Maitland-based Florida Tomato Exchange, described the moment farmers watched the market get squeezed. “What we saw was a textbook supply shock in a perishable commodity: two simultaneous. weather-driven disruptions hit the only two regions that supply the U.S. market in winter and early spring,” he said.

That winter damage didn’t land in a vacuum. Guenther said the tomato loss came on top of years of margin compression from import competition. In an email response to questions. he wrote that the $164 million loss “came on top of years of margin compression from import competition. ” adding: “It was a hard year. … April was the toughest month of the season (for Florida tomato growers). with production running about 40% below last year as the freeze damage worked through the system.”.

The timing matters for consumers, too. April’s national tomato price average was the highest recorded, at least since 1980, based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics historical data for fresh produce. By May. the average price eased from April’s peak to $2.489 a pound. but it was still sharply higher than a year earlier—up 32% from $1.705 a pound. May also marked the third-highest price on record.

In one sense, the crisis may already be shifting. Guenther said Florida tomato production largely returned to normal values by the end of April. and May was a rebound month. He said production was up about 36% compared to last year and roughly 11% of the seven-year average. Taken together. he said the Florida tomato industry finished the 2025-26 season up about 13% in production compared to the prior season.

That rebound is part of why growers think retail prices could finally start to come down—though not instantly.

Retail prices did dip in May compared with April’s peak, and Guenther expects further relief. Florida’s tomato-growing season runs from October through mid-June. Because this year’s season “finished on a strong note. ” he said consumers should see “noticeably lower retail tomato prices through the summer.” For the rest of the season. he pointed to the states that supply the U.S. market from June through October—California. Georgia. North Carolina. Tennessee. Virginia. New Jersey. Michigan and Ohio—and to conditions in Mexico and Canada.

He added that if those regions have a normal growing season, consumers should see prices return to near-normal historical ranges by late summer.

Still, losses suffered during the freeze could linger well beyond the growing season. At a town hall event held March 13 at the Hobe Sound Farmers Market, U.S. Rep. Brian Mast—who represents all of St. Lucie County and portions of Martin and Palm Beach counties—addressed the effects of this year’s winter freezes. The event was billed as a “Farmers Freeze Recovery Meeting.” That same day. the Palm City Republican published a blog post describing the freezes as two of “the most damaging weather events in state history for growers. ” saying they caused “years of labor lost.”.

Guenther acknowledged that recovery isn’t just a question of plants growing again. “Recovery from a freeze of this magnitude isn’t the same as being made whole,” he said. He explained that impacts depended on crop stages: seedlings and early plantings often didn’t survive. while fields ready to harvest had to be cut short. leaving damaged tomatoes in the field. He said growers lost an entire window of marketable production during one of the highest-value periods of the Florida season and that they “can’t make those weeks back.”.

He also clarified that the $164 million estimated loss applies to round tomatoes inspected under the federal marketing order, and that it does not include Roma, grape, cherry, or specialty types.

The next planting cycle is already underway in Florida. Guenther said the next Florida crop begins going into the ground in August for the 2026-27 season. meaning “the real physical recovery is already in progress.” The financial recovery. he said. will take longer—making federal disaster assistance part of the near-term business equation. He referenced federal disaster assistance pursued through the block grant program by Commissioner Simpson and Governor DeSantis with USDA. calling it “critical for many growers” as they make planting decisions for the next season.

Some economists think the label “Tomatoflation” captures more than just a weather shock. Guenther bristles at the term. calling it “a standalone phenomenon that overstates what happened.” He nevertheless acknowledged the possibility of it happening again. “Florida has experienced freezes of this severity before. though not at this scale in recent years. and weather variability is increasing. ” he said. He added that Florida agriculture has absorbed roughly $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion in cumulative losses from hurricanes. freezes. and disease events between 2017 and 2026.

Guenther said that level of cumulative risk becomes difficult for growers to keep absorbing without “serious attention to disaster assistance, trade enforcement, and the underlying competitiveness of the domestic industry.”

He framed the broader vulnerability this way: the U.S. food system depends on a small number of growing regions, and when those regions are disrupted at the same time, it shows up quickly in the grocery aisle.

Not everyone agrees on whether recent trade actions helped push prices higher.

Some economists have pointed to a 17% U.S. tariff on fresh tomatoes from Mexico that took effect on July 14, 2025. Ricky Volpe. a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University. told CNBC in an article published April 15 that the U.S. can’t readily substitute for tomatoes from other nations or U.S. growers because Mexico is such a major supplier. Volpe said the tariffs prompted some Mexican tomato growers to reduce plantings. and that—combined with a disease outbreak and the winter freezes affecting Florida—contributed to the steep rise in prices for U.S. consumers, according to an April 22 article published by the Kansas-based Farm Journal publication The Packer.

Guenther disputed that framing. He said the duties are antidumping duties, not tariffs in the conventional trade policy sense. “The duties on Mexican tomatoes are antidumping duties, not tariffs in the conventional trade policy sense,” he said. He added that they were imposed in July 2025 after the U.S. Department of Commerce determined Mexican producers were selling tomatoes into the U.S. market at unfairly low prices, a determination the U.S. International Trade Commission had affirmed previously. He argued the purpose of antidumping duties is to restore fair competition and that they are “not a tax on consumers.”.

He also pointed to a timeline mismatch: wholesale tomato prices in the U.S. remained stable from July 2025 through January 2026. The sharp increase. he said. didn’t start until late February 2026. when Florida’s freeze and Mexico’s disease and weather problems hit the supply chain—creating “a seven-month gap that argues against the duties being the trigger.”.

The price history supports the idea that the rise came in phases rather than as an immediate jump after July 2025. Using historical BLS data kept on the website for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. the national average price of field-grown tomatoes rose slightly to $1.925 a pound in August 2025. the month after the U.S. tariffs or duties on tomatoes from Mexico began. The average price in July that year was $1.793.

U.S. tomato prices remained lower year-over-year until February, when the average price rose 11.1 cents from January to $1.902 a pound, up 2.9% from $1.848 in February 2025. The average price increased 35.3 cents in March to $2.255 a pound, up nearly 24% from $1.819 in the same month last year.

When the average price jumped another 43.4 cents to April’s record high, it broke the previous all-time high for fresh tomatoes—a $2.528 a pound price recorded 10 years earlier in January 2016.

The story unfolding in the numbers is straightforward: when Florida’s production collapsed early in the year and Mexico’s supply faced setbacks at the same time. the market had less fresh volume to draw from. Florida then rebounded by late April. and the question now is whether the rest of the producing regions and Mexico can stay steady enough for retailers to pass along meaningful relief.

For shoppers, that doesn’t mean prices will instantly normalize. But for growers, it’s the first sign that the supply shock may be easing rather than hardening.

tomato prices 2026 Tomatoflation Florida tomato freezes U.S. grocery inflation Mexican tomato supply antidumping duties Robert Guenther Florida Tomato Exchange Wilton Simpson USDA disaster assistance