College football – Oddsmakers and recruiting momentum point to Ohio State, Notre Dame and Texas as the top national championship favorites for 2026-27—while a separate list of longshot “sleepers” includes Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU and four others with odds worse than 12-to-1.
By the time the 2026-27 college football season arrives, the national championship picture could look familiar—at least on paper. The frontrunners are heavyweights that already proved they can win games in the biggest moments, including a team that lost in the CFP quarterfinals last season.
The favorites list starts with Ohio State, Notre Dame and Texas, described as loaded regardless of last season’s outcomes. The oddsmaker-driven group extends to Indiana, Oregon, Georgia and Miami, all of which reached the quarterfinals or went beyond in the most recent postseason.
But the story doesn’t end where the odds end. After naming the top seven frontrunners, the focus shifts to the teams whose championship odds are worse than 12-to-1—longshots with rosters and quarterback situations that could, in theory, change the ceiling.
Texas A&M (BetMGM odds: 15-to-1) is first on the sleeper list. The argument starts with Marcel Reed. the program’s quarterback in his fourth year. who produced more than 3. 600 yards through the air or on the ground last season. His next step, the description goes, is simple: limit interceptions and raise performance against top opponents.
It hasn’t always been smooth. Reed struggled in losses to Texas and Miami. The swing factor is the receiving corps, where Reed is said to be surrounded by “crazy good” weapons, and the plan is to take advantage of that talent once he can dial in consistency.
For Texas A&M, the other hinge is the lines of scrimmage. The program used portal moves to rebuild both the offensive and defensive lines, and the expectation is that improved play up front could determine whether a playoff run is realistic.
Ole Miss (BetMGM odds: 25-to-1) comes with a very different kind of risk. The description leans into how far the Rebels’ ceiling and floor can diverge. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is back as one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, and backfield star Kewan Lacy returned as well.
Even with Lane Kiffin leaving, the piece says a handful of starters are back on both sides of the ball. It also points to a transfer haul and frames Ole Miss’ roster as looking good on paper.
But the schedule stiffened, and the coaching shakeup is a live question. Pete Golding, who previously led the defense, is mentioned for a stirring triumph over Kirby Smart in the Sugar Bowl. Still, the concern is how he’ll handle a full season as coach. The offense, meanwhile, is now in new hands: Charlie Weis Jr. called plays for the playoff run and is off to LSU with Kiffin, leaving the offense under a new setup.
In the story’s quarterback-centric logic, though, the reason Ole Miss still has a path is blunt: if you have an excellent one, the run starts there.
LSU (BetMGM odds: 15-to-1) is next, tied directly to the expectations that follow Lane Kiffin. He’s described as initially downplaying Year 1 expectations, then eventually leaning into them during a recent podcast interview on Tyrann Mathieu’s podcast.
Kiffin’s quote is specific about timing: “I don’t know how fast it’s going to happen.” That uncertainty hangs over the season. The schedule is tough, with LSU slated to play five games against projected top-25 opponents, so even reaching the playoff is not treated as a sure thing.
In addition, transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt is coming off a foot injury. And because LSU has so many new faces, the piece suggests it’d be a wonder if players even know their teammates’ names yet—an early-season reality that can collide with big expectations.
Still, the case for LSU is that the coach excels at blending transfers and has signed another elite portal class. The roster may be in motion, but it’s built to compete.
The Big Ten sleeper takes the spotlight with USC (BetMGM odds: 35-to-1). a team presented as a longshot built on continuity—and tested by a punishing schedule. USC is described as the opposite of LSU: instead of constant turnover. the Trojans are said to have 15 returning starters. the top number in the nation per CBS Sports research.
That core includes a seasoned offensive line and quarterback Jayden Maiava. The roster argument here is straightforward: if continuity can be the engine, USC has enough pieces.
The other half of the problem is Lincoln Riley’s track record. The piece notes Riley has never done anything in the postseason and has never taken USC to the playoff, even as it raises a thought experiment about what USC’s odds would be if Kirby Smart coached them instead of Riley.
Then the schedule closes the door. It includes Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Washington—setting up the longshot framing right where the odds need it.
Penn State (BetMGM odds: 50-to-1) is the Hail Mary sleeper described in the sharpest contrast. For Penn State, the Big Ten narrative is framed as a favorable draw: no Ohio State on the schedule, and no Indiana or Oregon either. The nonconference portion is called a cupcake feast.
Matt Campbell is said to have gotten a kinder welcome into the Big Ten. and he used the popular move for first-year coaches—bringing in a “cavalcade” of players from his previous job. The piece spells out the connection: the first team could be called the CyLions. loaded with former Iowa State Cyclones. including veteran quarterback Rocco Becht.
On paper, it looks ideal. But the skepticism is spelled out too: the Cyclones went 8-4 last year—solid, even on defense, but not national championship-level. Penn State becomes the longshot for the very reason that makes the prediction feel like a prayer for glory.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
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