A projected +5 cut line is keeping the bubble tight at the 2026 U.S. Open after Round 1 conditions swung with high winds and a two-hour fog delay at Shinnecock Hills. As of 2 p.m. ET Thursday, only 78 of 156 players have teed off, and the Datagolf.com model no
By the time Thursday’s tee times resume, the wind has already forced players to rethink every shot—and the numbers are starting to reflect that pressure.
At the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. high winds. a two-hour fog delay. and course challenges have produced a Round 1 leaderboard where only a select few are under par. Greens are proving tricky hole to hole. and significant wind gusts are projected to affect the rest of Thursday’s tee times and Friday’s second round. With more players than usual struggling. the projected cut line is turning into the main test for anyone trying to avoid a weekend exit.
Scottie Scheffler, the defending U.S. Open champion J.J. Spaun, and Si Woo Kim are among the top golfers off to rough starts, but there is still time to work back into contention. The structure is unforgiving: only the top 60 golfers (and ties) after 36 holes make the cut for the final two rounds.
As of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday. the projected cut line is +5 based on the scores of the top 60 golfers (and ties) on the current leaderboard. All golfers with a score of +5 or better would make the weekend at Shinnecock Hills. but only 78 of the 156 golfers in the field have teed off. meaning the cut picture could still shift as the day progresses.
The cut rules are straightforward. The top 60 golfers (and ties) make the 36-hole cut at the 2026 U.S. Open. Historical benchmarks show why the margin feels tight this week: the cut line at last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club was +7, while the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills finished with a cut line at +8.
Datagolf.com’s predictive model currently projects +5 as the most likely cut line for the 2026 U.S. Open, with a 35% chance. There is a 26.2% chance it drops to +4, and a 21% chance it rises to +6 by the end of Friday’s second round.
On the cut bubble, the names underscore how quickly scoring can swing when the conditions do. Chris Gotterup is at +4 (13). Cameron Smith is +5 (15). Graeme McDowell is +5 (15). Daniel Berger is +5 (14). Sepp Straka is +5 (13). J.J. Spaun is +5 (11). Mason Howell (a) is +7 (11). Si Woo Kim is +8 (13).
The broader leaderboard offers a glimpse of what the field is fighting for, even as conditions keep changing. Sam Stevens is leading at -2 (16), started on the 10th hole. A group tied for second sits at -1 (13): Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg, and Ben James at -1 (12). T5 includes Adrien Dumont de Chassart at E (15). Kristoffer Reitan at E (14). Keegan Bradley at E (14). Rickie Fowler at E (14). Sam Burns at E (14). Max Greyserman at E (12). Brian Harman at E (12). and Alex Fitzpatrick at E (12).
2026 U.S. Open Shinnecock Hills Scottie Scheffler cut line Datagolf.com projected cut high winds fog delay leaderboard