The peso hit a new low at P61.567:$1 amid oil and peace-talk uncertainty, while the PSEi bounced higher on bargain hunting and hopes for cheaper fuel.
The Philippine peso slid to a new record low of P61.567:$1 on Wednesday, pushing traders to reassess near-term currency risk.
The move came as oil price prospects stayed murky, tied to stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran.. With energy costs still a live worry, demand for safer assets remained supported, leaving the peso more exposed to pressure than to relief.. The local currency weakened by 26.7 centavos from Tuesday’s previous record low of P61.3:$1, opening at P61.2:$1 and trading in a range of P61.2 to P61.67.. Trading activity also eased, with volume falling to P1.608 billion from P1.749 billion.
Market analysts said uncertainty was effectively keeping a floor under oil prices, which in turn can sustain pressure across currencies and import-linked costs.. One key takeaway from traders’ comments was that when geopolitical signals don’t move decisively, pricing can stay “sticky,” even if there are hints of improvement elsewhere.. In the near term, the peso’s depreciation risk was flagged around the P62 to P62.50 area.
There was, however, a different tone in equities.. The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) snapped a five-day decline and closed 41.10 points, or 0.70 percent higher, at 5,907.89.. The broader All Shares also advanced 0.70 percent, adding 23.20 points to finish at 3,343.60.. For investors, the timing mattered: bargain hunting stepped in after prior drops, and the mood benefited from expectations that oil prices could ease.
A major ingredient behind that optimism was regional signals from the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC.. Even without an immediate, visible swing in crude prices, the possibility of lower fuel costs can influence how investors think about inflation, consumer spending, and corporate margins—especially for sectors sensitive to energy and transport expenses.
The relationship between the peso and the stock market is often closer than it looks on a trading screen.. When the currency weakens, it can raise the cost of imported inputs and sometimes cool risk appetite.. Yet equities can still rebound if investors believe the worst is already priced in or if they see a path to easing costs.. Wednesday’s session reflected that split: the peso looked toward risk ahead, while the PSEi leaned into relative value.
Traders also pointed to the dollar as a driver.. The peso continued to weaken alongside a stronger US dollar, with market participants reportedly watching the timing of when the Federal Reserve could resume its cutting cycle—currently pegged at December 2027.. In other words, if rate expectations shift slower than markets want, capital flows can favor the dollar, making it harder for emerging currencies to stabilize.
On the other hand, easing geopolitical tensions were cited as support for market sentiment, alongside expectations for a pause in US policy tightening.. For equities, that can translate into lower discount rates and less pressure on valuations, giving investors room to buy after the decline.. It also helps explain why bargain-hunting can be powerful even when macro worries persist.
Trading conditions were active, with net value turnover at P6.61 billion, above the year-to-date average.. Foreign investors also returned to the buy side, registering inflows of P279.59 million that snapped a 12-day selling streak.. Sector performance stayed mixed: services led the gainers with a 1.33 percent rise, while property stocks edged down by 0.08 percent.. Advancers outnumbered decliners, 105 to 78, with 54 issues unchanged.
For investors and households, the practical impact is straightforward: a weaker peso can feed into higher costs, while the expectation of softer fuel prices can help balance the outlook.. The next question is whether oil prices can actually follow through on the optimism suggested by OPEC-related developments, or whether geopolitical uncertainty keeps volatility elevated.. If crude stays firm, the peso may remain vulnerable near the P62 zone; if it cools, the PSEi’s rebound could be more durable than a one-day bounce.