NOAA predicts – NOAA is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 55% chance of fewer storms and hurricanes than average. The outlook still includes 8–14 named storms and 3–6 hurricanes, including 1–3 major hurricanes, and NOAA says updated forecast too
June 1 is still weeks away, but NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season lands like a reminder you can’t ignore: even a “below-normal” year can produce a storm that changes everything.
Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2026. NOAA’s outlook for the season. which runs June 1 to November 30. assigns a 35% chance of a near-normal season. a 10% chance of an above-normal season. and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The numbers being watched are not small. NOAA is forecasting a total of 8–14 named storms—systems with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3–6 are forecast to become hurricanes—winds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA also expects 1–3 major hurricanes, defined as Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these ranges.
An average season, by NOAA’s comparison, brings 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. That’s the baseline NOAA is using to frame what “below-normal” would look like.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick pointed to readiness and real-time forecasting as the point of the exercise. saying. “With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies. NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings.” He added that NOAA’s experts are integrating tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest. most accurate information possible.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., tied the messaging directly to technology. “NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology. including AI-based weather models. drones. and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people. ” Jacobs said. “These new capabilities. combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters. will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”.
What’s driving the forecast is a tug-of-war in the atmosphere and the ocean. NOAA says the Atlantic season is expected to run below normal because El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season. while the Atlantic’s ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. NOAA says El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes. while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, kept the tone grounded in what people actually need to hear. “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development. there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. ” Graham said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”.
NOAA’s outlook is aimed at overall seasonal activity based on large-scale patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land, since that depends on short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is also not a landfall forecast.
Graham’s follow-up message focused on timing, urging preparedness before any threat appears. “Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” he said.
A separate set of communication upgrades is also part of NOAA’s push for the season. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States. Hawaii. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
NHC will also begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone meant to capture a greater range of possibilities for storm track direction and timing by incorporating uncertainties for both.
For the Hawaiian Islands, NOAA says it will provide new products and services that include storm surge watches and warnings, along with a peak storm surge graphic. These will be publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands on hurricanes.gov.
NOAA also noted that it issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins, with both anticipated to have active seasons.
The Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.
And for anyone following along as names rotate into place. NOAA included the alphabetical list of 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization: Arthur. Bertha. Cristobal. Dolly. Edouard. Fay. Gonzalo. Hanna. Isaias. Josephine. Kyle. Leah. Marco. Nana. Omar. Paulette. Rene. Sally. Teddy. Vicky. and Wilfred.
NOAA 2026 Atlantic hurricane season below-normal El Niño National Hurricane Center hurricane watches and warnings storm surge watches and warnings inland areas hurricanes.gov
“Below-normal” just means fewer chances to get hit… until the one freak storm shows up anyway.
Why do they always say 55% like that means anything? Hurricanes don’t read percentages. Also isn’t the season already like… starting early now?
I’m confused—if it’s below normal, wouldn’t that mean less major hurricanes for sure? But they still say 1–3 major which sounds like a lot to me, so basically it’s still a risk.
They say updated forecast too June 1 is still weeks away and then drop all these numbers now… like what’s the point? My cousin in Florida says it’ll be worse every year because the ocean is warm, so idk who to trust. Either way I’m stocking up on batteries just in case, because NOAA is always warning but the damage never feels “below-normal” when it’s your house.