NHC watches – The National Hurricane Center is tracking two areas of low pressure in the eastern Pacific. One is already showing signs of organization southwest of Baja California, with a tropical depression possible within 1–2 days and an 80% chance of development in 48 ho
On a day when the Atlantic hurricane season officially kicked off on June 1, the National Hurricane Center’s attention is also locked on the eastern Pacific—where forecasters are watching two separate areas of low pressure that could turn into tropical systems soon.
In a June 2 advisory. the hurricane center said satellite images show an area of low pressure well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is “beginning to show signs of organization.” Environmental conditions over the region appear conducive for further development. and forecasters expect a tropical depression to form during the next day or two as the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the western portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The forecast confidence is already high. Forecasters gave the system an 80% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance within the next week.
A second potential system is also on the radar. The hurricane center said an area of low pressure is likely to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico later this week or over the weekend. Forecasters then raised the possibility that a tropical depression could form by early next week as the disturbance moves northwestward.
For this second area, the odds are lower but still worth watching closely: forecasters gave it a 40% chance of tropical development within the next week.
At the moment, it isn’t clear whether either system poses danger to land. Forecasters emphasized uncertainty as the disturbances develop—an important reminder in both basins, especially at the start of hurricane season when conditions can shift faster than schedules and travel plans.
The stakes here are shaped by the Pacific’s track record. Unlike storms in the Atlantic basin. the vast majority of Pacific storms—roughly 85% to 90%—never threaten land and often spin harmlessly out to sea. Still. they can occasionally bring impacts to places like Hawaii. the west coast of Mexico. or the Southwest U.S. with heavy flooding and rainfall when storms do take a more damaging path.
As for naming, whichever system becomes a tropical storm first would be called Amanda, the first name on the Pacific storm list for 2026.
All of it is unfolding with the calendar now officially in hurricane season mode: the Atlantic opening on June 1 is a reminder that the U.S. weather picture doesn’t start and stop at one ocean. Even when most Pacific storms never reach land. forecasters track development early—because it’s the only way to know when “harmlessly out to sea” might stop being the most likely outcome.
National Hurricane Center NHC eastern Pacific tropical depression tropical development odds Baja California Central America southern Mexico hurricane season Amanda 2026 satellite images