California voters face two tight primaries Tuesday

California primaries – Californians vote Tuesday in closely watched primaries for governor and Los Angeles mayor, with the state’s top-two system shaping November matchups and a mayoral race that could be decided tonight or head to a runoff.

For a state that has often made national news, California’s primary Tuesday feels unusually immediate—like the choices voters make tonight will determine not just who wins a party contest, but who they’ll see again in November.

One race sits atop the ballot with governor candidate X-factor politics: the contest to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. The other is more personal. and closer to home for millions in Los Angeles—Mayor Karen Bass’s second-term bid—where the campaign has been defined by the wreckage of 2025 wildfires. the crush of homelessness. and the anger and scrutiny surrounding immigration enforcement operations carried out by the Trump administration.

In both races, the margin appears thin enough to turn turnout into fate.

Xavier Becerra enters Election Day as the frontrunner

The governor’s race has shifted significantly in recent months since term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom’s departure set the stage for a crowded field. Former Biden administration Health and Human Services Sec. Xavier Becerra is entering Tuesday’s primary as the frontrunner, according to Emerson College/Inside California Politics polling.

Becerra isn’t campaigning from the middle of the field. and two other recognizable names are forcing the race to focus on what happens next. not just what happens in June. Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton. a former Fox News host and ally of President Donald Trump. are battling for the remaining top positions.

California’s top-two primary system is turning this into a puzzle for voters and candidates alike. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to November’s general election regardless of party affiliation. That means voters could end up with two Democrats advancing. two Republicans advancing. or a Democrat and Republican facing off in the fall.

In recent months, the list of candidates people expected to compete for a runoff spot has changed. Former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April after multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct. Swalwell denied the allegations and resigned from Congress shortly afterward. Former Rep. Katie Porter also entered the race as a high-profile contender. but she has slipped in recent polling. with her campaign facing criticism over allegations of a difficult management style and several viral moments involving staff and reporters.

A governor race that could produce a matchup no one predicted is no longer a theoretical possibility. It is the system itself.

Mayor Karen Bass could be done Tuesday night—or dragged into November

Los Angeles voters are choosing a mayor as well, and this one may not wait. Under the city’s rules, if a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they win outright. If no candidate clears that threshold, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking a second term against a crowded field of challengers. But the contest has largely narrowed to three candidates: Bass, a progressive City Council member Nithya Raman, and former reality television personality Spencer Pratt.

Bass’s campaign has leaned heavily into the city’s response to the devastating 2025 wildfires. homelessness. and immigration enforcement operations carried out by the Trump administration. Pratt, meanwhile, became a prominent critic of Bass after losing his Pacific Palisades home in the fires. Bass has defended her handling of the disaster while acknowledging the city must improve its emergency response.

The polling heading into Tuesday underscores how close this could be. A recent UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll found Bass at 26%. Raman at 25%. and Pratt at 22%. putting all three candidates within striking distance heading into Election Day. “You’ve got three very different candidates, each with very different constituencies, all within the margin of error. It’s going to boil down to turnout,” pollster Mark DiCamillo told the Times.

That’s the pressure point for the final hours: when three candidates are stacked so tightly, every decision about where to vote and when to vote becomes more than routine.

What tonight decides

For the governor’s race, the questions are blunt. Whether Becerra maintains his lead. Whether Hilton can secure a runoff spot. And, under California’s top-two system, which two candidates advance to November.

For Los Angeles mayor, the stakes are even more immediate. Whether Bass wins outright Tuesday night. Whether the race heads to a November runoff. And whether Pratt can convert national attention into votes.

At the moment, nothing in either race feels locked. Tuesday’s ballot doesn’t just choose winners—it determines what kind of campaign voters will face next.

California primary governor race Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton top-two primary Los Angeles mayor election Karen Bass Nithya Raman Spencer Pratt 2025 wildfires homelessness immigration enforcement