All the while, he acknowledges Ethiopia’s considerable economic potential, describing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as “an amazing piece of infrastructure, not just for Ethiopia, but for Africa.” Naidoo describes a country suspended between promise and peril. Ethiopia remains one of Africa’s most strategically important economies, with “underlying green shoots” that continue to attract investors. Yet he warns of mounting political centralization, growing feelings of exclusion among key ethnic constituencies, and the possibility that access to the sea could become an increasingly destabilizing geopolitical
objective. Looking ahead, he predicts that Abiy Ahmed, if strengthened by another overwhelming electoral victory, may seek further measures “to consolidate control,” while tensions across the Horn of Africa risk becoming even more pronounced. What emerges is a portrait of a nation whose ambitions remain vast, but whose democratic and regional challenges continue to cast a long shadow over its future.
Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, GERD, political centralization, exclusion, access to the sea, Horn of Africa