Gas prices have already jumped from April to May, and a leading industry analyst now projects the national average could rise to $4.80 per gallon this summer—pushing travel budgets higher just as Memorial Day approaches. The forecast rests on geopolitical risk
By the time Memorial Day arrives, many drivers may be staring at a higher number on the pump than they expected.
GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. Patrick De Haan. says the national average price of a gallon of gas could soon reach a record $4.80—an outcome he linked to a still-tense global oil picture as the U.S.-Iran war continues. De Haan’s forecast comes as prices have already moved up: AAA Auto Club data show the U.S. average rose to $4.55 per gallon on May 20, up from $4.04 one month earlier on April 20.
In an X post, De Haan wrote that GasBuddy is forecasting “Most Expensive Summer at the Pump in Years,” with a possibility of touching $5/gal and a “setting new record average of $4.80 per gallon,” exceeding 2022’s summer average of $4.43 if the Strait remains closed.
De Haan also said the timing of recent swings has been driven by hope and then disappointment in markets trying to read diplomatic signals. In a blog post. he wrote that national prices “spent much of last week drifting lower after jumping early in the week” as oil prices softened on hopes that diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran could ease supply concerns. That optimism. he wrote. faded after President Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran. while renewed warnings toward Tehran helped push oil prices higher again.
His broader point was stark: “with global oil inventories continuing to trend toward historically tight levels. markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments and potential supply disruptions.” He added that gasoline and diesel prices are likely to stay volatile. and with Memorial Day approaching. “any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead.”.
Gas prices aren’t set by one lever. The American Petroleum Institute. which lobbies for the natural gas and oil industry. said on its website that “gasoline prices reflect costs across the fuel supply chain − from crude oil production to refining. distribution and retail sales.” It said the largest factor is crude oil traded in global markets. while refining costs. distribution and marketing expenses. and federal and state taxes also contribute.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration breaks the pump price into components. For gasoline. it lists crude oil pricing at 51%. refining costs at 20%. federal and state taxes at 18%. and distribution and marketing at 20%. For diesel. it lists crude oil pricing at 41%. distribution and marketing at 24%. refining costs at 18%. and federal and state taxes at 17%.
California is already living with the most painful end of the forecast. On May 20, AAA data put California’s average gas price at $6.14 per gallon. That compares with $5.83 per gallon on April 20.
AAA also ranked the five states with the most expensive gas prices on May 20:
1. California — May 20: $6.14; April 20: $5.83; difference: 31 cents
2. Hawaii — May 20: $5.64; April 20: $5.67; difference: -3 cents
3. Washington — May 20: $5.78; April 20: $5.38; difference: 40 cents
4. Oregon — May 20: $5.35; April 20: $4.98; difference: 37 cents
5. Nevada — May 20: $5.27; April 20: $4.93; difference: 34 cents.
What ties these snapshots together is the same pressure drivers have felt for weeks: as oil prices swing with geopolitical headlines and global inventories stay historically tight, the changes show up fast at the pump—well before consumers can adjust their travel plans.
gas prices GasBuddy $4.80 summer average AAA crude oil U.S.-Iran war oil inventories Memorial Day California gas prices diesel prices