Steyer’s late – With about 56% of ballots counted in California’s June 2 governor primary, Republican Steve Hilton leads Democrat Xavier Becerra by roughly one percentage point—while billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer sits third at 19.6%. Election officials warned that t
For Tom Steyer, the wait after California’s June 2 governor primary has become part of the campaign strategy—counting on a late surge to rewrite a result that currently looks almost impossible to overhaul.
As state election officials continued counting with just over half of votes in. Republican Steve Hilton led Democrat Xavier Becerra by a narrow margin. More than half of the vote had been tallied. and the numbers have Hilton. a former Fox News commentator. holding a 27.6% share against Becerra’s 25.6%. a gap of about one percentage point. Steyer, the billionaire climate activist, remained in third place with 19.6%.
California’s ballot deadline isn’t the hard part—it’s the volume. Officials said the mix of mail-in ballots and a last-minute surge among liberal-leaning voters will take time to count. potentially stretching results out for weeks. Officials also noted that California typically begins processing ballots postmarked by Election Day after in-person voting ends. and they have asked voters to be patient while the count stays accurate and secure.
Secretary of State Shirley Weber said in a June 2 news release that California elections officials prioritize both voting rights and election security over rushing the vote count. “We have a process that by law ensures both voting rights and the integrity of elections. so I would call on all Californians to be patient. ” Weber said.
At the moment. Paul Mitchell. vice president of Political Data Inc. a Sacramento-based bipartisan voter data firm. put the remaining workload in plain terms. “There’s about 3.5 million to 4 million votes still out there yet to be counted,” Mitchell said. He estimated that around 9 million voters—roughly fewer than 40% of California’s 23 million registered voters—participated in the primary.
Mitchell said he expected more clarity “at least by Friday.” He also pointed out that 9 million voter participation is two million higher than the 2022 primary in which current Gov. Gavin Newsom easily sought reelection.
Steyer is trying to close a steep divide—both in votes and in time. In the current count, Steyer is out of the top two by almost 300,000 votes. Mitchell said Steyer would need to make up significant ground to catch up, and he added that Steyer is trailing Becerra in most counties.
In a June 3 letter provided to the public. Steyer’s campaign reiterated the importance of counting each vote while urging supporters to ensure their ballot was accepted. The campaign said. “There’s still a lot that remains to be seen. and we’re going to give democracy time to work. ” and added that the most important thing supporters can do while waiting is to visit the state’s ballot tracker and verify that their ballot has been accepted.
The campaign’s financial footprint underscores how much is riding on a late-count scenario. Steyer’s campaign alone spent more than $200 million, accounting for 64% of every dollar spent in the primary, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm.
Whether that spending can translate into the kind of late collapse and rebound Steyer needs is the question now hanging over the ballot count.
The math, as political analysts described it, is tight. Mitchell said Steyer needs to make up about 14 to 15 percentage points. and he emphasized that the count is already more than halfway complete. “Steyer not only needs to get about 30% of the remaining votes out there. but he needs for Becerra or Hilton to get about 6% less of those remaining votes. ” Mitchell said.
Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College in Silicon Valley, offered a harsher read. She suggested there is typically pushback when voters see “big money” well-funded figures. or “big tech. ” trying to influence an outcome—especially when Steyer’s surge happens early but he cannot close with broader support. “I mean, it’s a long shot; it might be mathematically possible,” Michelson said. “He surged early as a way to buy name recognition. but as Californians finally started tuning in and learning more about the candidates. he couldn’t close the deal.”.
Michelson also dismissed the idea that uncertainty alone could carry Steyer upward. “As I see it, the voters just don’t want him,” she said.
Steyer’s allies have been leaning on a theory that the current deficit isn’t what it will look like after all ballots are counted: the idea of a “red mirage.” The argument is that many uncertain Democratic voters waited until Election Day rather than mail in their votes early. and that those later votes could cut into Hilton’s early lead once they’re counted.
But Hilton’s camp has tried to keep attention on the remaining count without signaling desperation. Hilton said his campaign is “very confident” there aren’t enough uncounted votes for his Democratic rivals to lock out the GOP this fall. “Even if you do get that kind of effect. it’s not going to be enough to kick us out of the top two slots. ” Hilton said.
The delayed certainty also sits in the middle of a larger national fight over election rules and mail-in voting. President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton and has long been a critic of mail-in voting. Trump has also suggested, without evidence, that mail-in voting is used by Democrats to cheat in U.S. elections.
That backdrop has led conservative activists to watch closely for anything that could trigger a confrontation over legitimacy if the final numbers shift dramatically. In a June 3 interview. conservative podcast host Benny Johnson asked Hilton whether he would sue if there were “ballot dumps” that went “100% for Xavier or for Tom.” Hilton criticized the slow pace of the process in California. but he downplayed claims of corruption. “So far, we’re not seeing any signs of that,” Hilton said.
The count’s timing matters because the profile of late-arriving votes can change the shape of results. Leading up to Election Day. the Democratic share of those later ballots—which often determine California’s outcome—was steadily increasing as liberal-leaning voters made their choice. A month before the election. about 40% of the mail-in ballots were from registered Democrats. according to L2 Data. a nationwide voter data firm. That share grew to roughly 53% a week before the election.
In the meantime. the country’s most populous state remains in counting mode. and no one can say how the remaining ballots will tilt the race. For Steyer, the hope is that the late surge is big enough to turn third place into a top-two finish. For Hilton and Becerra. the hope is that the unfinished count simply confirms what the early tallies suggest—without producing the kind of reversal Steyer’s supporters are waiting for.
California governor primary Steve Hilton Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer ballot counting mail-in ballots June 2 election California election results Political Data Inc Shirley Weber Heather Hargreaves AdImpact