Atlantic quiet – The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually calm so far, with only Tropical Storm Arthur forming—yet forecasters are watching for a small, low-probability chance of tropical development near the Southeast U.S. coast next week. Across the border of th
By June 26, the Atlantic hurricane season still feels like it’s holding its breath.
Forecasters described the start as unusually calm—“the quietest since 2014”—with only one named storm so far, Tropical Storm Arthur. But even in a season that has been mostly all silence and satellite images. the forecast is beginning to watch the same place weather experts always watch: warm water. the position of fronts. and whether a patch of disturbed weather can organize into something stronger.
In the middle of next week, there are signs that could nudge the Atlantic toward tropical activity near the Southeast U.S. coast, though the odds remain small.
A slim chance off the Southeast coast
Some forecast models are pointing to a possible development window off the southeastern United States by the middle of next week, even though the National Hurricane Center has not included it in its outlook for next week yet.
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop along the tail end of a front that is forecast to stall near the southern Atlantic coast later this week. Those storms could consolidate into an area of low pressure. and given the warm ocean waters. it has a chance to become a tropical or subtropical storm. he said.
WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry wrote in an email that some forecast models—specifically Google’s machine learning-based DeepMind hurricane model—are hinting at a “small development window off the southeastern U.S.” for the middle part of next week.
Lowry said odds remain low, at 10% or less, and that the best chances—if anything tries to spin up—would be between June 30 and July 2.
Arthur was the lesson the Atlantic didn’t want to repeat
The Atlantic’s calm start has not meant the region has been spared the risks that hurricanes can bring.
Arthur was the only named Atlantic storm so far this season, and it became a reminder that the category of a storm does not determine the level of devastation it can cause.
In Louisiana. rain associated with Arthur’s remnants set a new 24-hour state rainfall record at 29.06 inches on June 18. according to the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles. The report said the rain fell in less than 12 hours at a CoCoRaHs Observation Station 3.4 miles southeast of Cottonport, Louisiana. The previous record of 22 inches had been set during a non-tropical event on Aug. 29, 1962.
Over June 18–19, the New Orleans office counted 14 tornadoes, all of them an EF1 or lower.
The storm delivered impact without the drama of a long-lived system. For forecasters and residents watching the calendar, it also set a tone: even a quiet season can still produce moments of extreme weather.
Heat in the ocean, El Niño limits—and warnings remain
Forecasters are also factoring in the broader season setup. Oceans are holding excess heat. El Niño can limit hurricanes, but scientists warn storms can still form even when those conditions are in place.
With only one short-lived storm so far—Arthur—the Atlantic has managed to stay unusually quiet. Yet the current watch for early-season tropical chances off the Southeast coast shows that “quiet” doesn’t mean “guaranteed.”
Dust adds another layer to the outlook
A plume of Saharan dust is moving into western portions of the Atlantic hurricane basin, and the shift is already visible in forecasts for where it could travel next.
The National Weather Service in San Juan said dust concentrations were moderate to heavy over the U.S. Virgin Islands on June 26 and are expected to move eastward toward Puerto Rico. By June 28. the dust is expected to begin arriving in Southeast Texas and linger for a couple of days. according to the Houston office.
In Texas, the dust may result in reduced air quality—especially for sensitive groups—hazy skies, and vibrant sunrises and sunsets early next week. Dust can also suppress rainfall and the conditions that support hurricanes as it migrates from Africa more than 5,000 miles westward across the Atlantic.
Eastern Pacific keeps moving: potential fourth named storm
While the Atlantic’s story is about low odds and a wait-and-watch window, the eastern Pacific is already in motion.
The next potential system is described as a tropical wave several hundred miles south of southwest Mexico. The hurricane center said conditions are expected to become more favorable for it to become a tropical depression within the next seven days as it moves generally west-northwest.
If it forms, it would be the fourth named Pacific storm of the season. The next name up in the rotation is Douglas.
So far. all three of the early season Pacific storms have never progressed past tropical storm status: Amanda trailed off into the open ocean. Boris made landfall in southern Mexico early on the morning of June 9 and was blamed for one death after flooding and mudslides. and Cristina moved along the coast of Nicaragua. Honduras and El Salvador before dissipating before making landfall in El Salvador.
The sequence from Arthur’s record rainfall to a possible new Atlantic low-pressure area next week—and a faster-moving Pacific basin—leaves one common thread for anyone tracking the 2026 forecasts: even when storms are scarce. the ingredients can still line up quickly. and the consequences can still be severe.
2026 hurricane season forecast Atlantic hurricane season Tropical Storm Arthur Alex Sosnowski Michael Lowry DeepMind hurricane model Saharan dust National Hurricane Center eastern Pacific hurricane basin tropical wave Douglas
Atlantic being quiet again… so it’s basically over, right?
They said 10% or less but now I’m supposed to be scared anyway. I swear these storms always “might” happen until they do.
So Tropical Storm Arthur is the only one so far and they’re already watching for the next one next week like clockwork. Doesn’t the Pacific have nothing to do with this? Seems like they just mix up basins.
DeepMind model?? Great, so the AI says maybe 10% and people are writing full articles. Also “stall near the southern Atlantic coast” sounds like it’ll just camp there for days and do whatever it wants. I’m in Florida and I hate these “low probability” weeks because they’re still stressful.