June Atlantic – With the Atlantic hurricane season just past its opening days, forecasters see few signs of tropical activity. But June’s storms—rare and often weak—can form unusually close to the U.S., leaving less time for coastal communities to prepare.
Almost a week into the Atlantic hurricane season, the skies over the Atlantic are still mostly calm. Forecasters are seeing few signs of tropical activity—comforting news for coastal residents who watch these seasons like clockwork.
But June has a way of changing the timeline. When storms do form this early, they can spin up quickly and push toward the western Gulf and the Carolinas, meaning communities closer to shore may have less time to get ready.
For now, June remains the hurricane season’s slowest month. Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. who covers storms for WPLG-TV in Miami. said June is historically the least active month of the six-month hurricane season that runs from June to November. Even November—the season’s hurricane-starved month—has more hurricanes than June, according to hurricane forecaster commentary shared by Lowry.
Still, the quiet start doesn’t erase the risk. Early-season storms often develop in ways that aren’t as predictable as the long-watched tropical waves that tend to show up later in the season.
A quiet month—with a narrow window to prepare
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said June hurricanes are “pretty rare.” On average. a June hurricane happens around every five years or so. though that can vary. He pointed to Beryl in 2024 as the most recent June hurricane to form. and Bonnie in 1986 as the last June hurricane to hit the U.S.—a storm that made landfall east of Houston and killed five people.
Lowry said the historical record shows how tight the preparation window can be when storms show up early. He said there has been only once in the record books that a tropical cyclone formed east of the Caribbean islands in the first few weeks of June—a Tropical Depression Two in 2003 that didn’t even survive a full 24 hours. In his view, that pattern means there’s generally less time to prepare when early-season storms threaten.
He also said storms that do form in June tend to stay weaker. In his Substack post, Lowry wrote that only three Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have ever been recorded in June: Audrey (1957), Alma (1966), and Beryl (2024).
Even when wind intensity is lower, rain can still be the story. Lowry said the hallmark of these early “bloomers” is “rainfall and flooding — not strong winds.”
Why June can produce surprises
DaSilva tied June’s low numbers to environmental factors that make it harder for hurricanes to build. He said the sea-surface temperatures are cooler during this time compared with the middle of the hurricane season. Wind shear is also usually strong and widespread.
There’s another barrier, too: June often brings dry, dusty air from Africa across the Atlantic. DaSilva said that dry and dusty air can choke out developing tropical storms.
This year, that backdrop has already shown up visually and in air quality reports. European scientists with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service earlier this week said a large plume of Saharan dust had made its way across the ocean. impacting islands in the Caribbean Sea with hazy skies and degraded air quality.
Even with those obstacles, when storms do form, the mechanics can be fast. DaSilva said early-season storms are usually the result of spin developing off cold fronts moving south. dips in the jet stream moving over warm ocean water. or clusters of showers and thunderstorms developing. spinning. and moving north from Central America.
Most of those storms, he said, tend to move toward the northeast Gulf Coast and the Carolinas early in the month, with the western Gulf more likely to be impacted later.
The catch: storms can form closer to U.S. shores
The common hurricane-playbook—tracking systems across vast stretches of ocean—often doesn’t hold in June. Lowry said that early in the season, formations are more likely to happen closer to home in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the southeast U.S.
DaSilva agreed, saying that in June the most likely areas for development are closer to the U.S., specifically pointing to the Gulf, the western Caribbean, and off the Southeast coast.
He added that in June, most early development is not associated with tropical waves the way the later-season storms often are.
What to watch next
Looking ahead, DaSilva said environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for storm development during the second week of June, citing warm waters and lowering wind shear.
He urged watchfulness for the Gulf around the middle of the month, saying tropical moisture can stream north from Central America and the Eastern Pacific. If anything develops during that stretch, DaSilva said it would likely track toward the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast.
For coastal communities, the message is less about panic and more about attention. June may be quiet on average—but when storms arrive early, they can arrive quickly, nearer to U.S. shores than many people expect, and with flooding risks that don’t require hurricane-strength winds to cause real harm.
Atlantic hurricane season June hurricanes NOAA hurricane risk hurricane forecast AccuWeather Saharan dust Gulf Coast Carolinas flood risk