Zhipu surges – Zhipu’s shares jumped as much as 48% Monday, rallying after Washington ordered Anthropic to suspend foreign access to its most advanced AI models and Zhipu announced an unrestricted open-source release of GLM-5.2. Wall Street raised price targets on Zhipu and
On Monday. Zhipu’s stock looked like it was chasing two forces at once: Wall Street’s growing confidence and Washington’s narrowing AI access. The Hong Kong–listed company, Knowledge Atlas Technology, surged as much as 48% before trimming gains. It was last traded about 33% higher at around 1,461 Hong Kong dollars, or $186, based on LSEG data.
The rally comes at a volatile moment for the AI industry, where U.S. rules are tightening around the most powerful frontier systems. On Friday. the Trump administration ordered Anthropic to suspend access to its most advanced AI models—Fable 5 and Mythos 5—for any foreign national. including Anthropic employees who are not U.S. citizens, citing national security concerns.
Zhipu’s move landed in the same news cycle, and the timing was hard to miss. On Friday. Zhipu announced that GLM-5.2—its latest and most capable open-source large model—would be released as open-source software this week. with no usage restrictions. The company described the decision as a direct reply to Washington’s intervention. saying that cutting-edge intelligence “should not belong to only a few” and “should not be withdrawn at any time. ” adding that it should be “open. available. extensible and built to serve every developer.”.
Wall Street’s shifting expectations helped fuel the stock momentum. JPMorgan reportedly maintained an overweight rating on Zhipu and raised its target price to HK$1. 400 from HK$950. citing the firm’s view of model visibility and pricing power in a market where competition is fierce. At the same time, JPMorgan downgraded the company’s domestic rival, MiniMax.
MiniMax’s shares still rose on Monday, gaining 7.4%.
Later in the morning, more optimism followed. Bank of America analysts initiated coverage on both Zhipu and MiniMax with “buy” ratings. setting targets of HK$1. 250 for Zhipu and HK$500 for MiniMax. Those assessments landed after Zhipu’s GLM-5.2 announcement and Anthropic’s access curbs—two developments now being read as a fork in the road for how global AI demand could be met.
Early feedback tied to the new model suggests it’s not just a marketing gesture. Preliminary community feedback indicated GLM-5.2 performs comparably to Claude Opus 4.7 in coding and long-horizon agentic tasks. according to Ellie Jiang. head of Asia internet and media research at Macquarie Capital. Jiang also said Zhipu’s latest launch is likely to strengthen its pricing power in subsequent subscription plans. further boosting revenue. She kept an “outperform” rating, with a target price at 1,221.4 Hong Kong dollars.
The trading activity also reflects a practical reality facing enterprises. As U.S. developers face mounting pressure to restrict frontier model access. Chinese players have leaned into open distribution. drawing demand—particularly from cost-sensitive businesses. BofA analysts said China is positioned to capture a substantial share of the global AI market within the “value-for-money” segment. as Chinese models gain traction as “cheap-and-capable performers” while U.S. pricing for frontier models rises.
Zhipu’s own commercial posture has been moving in that direction. The company raised cloud API prices by 8% to 17% alongside its GLM-5.1 launch in April, its second price hike this year. The company framed the increases as a response to surging demand for AI services and pressure from investors to begin delivering on profits.
One other consequence is now creeping into investor conversations: the question of who gets to build the next generation of models. The Anthropic directive has revived debates around the AI talent race between the U.S. and China. Peter Alexander. Z-Ben Advisors managing director. estimated in a Monday note that around 40% of U.S.-based AI engineers were born in China. He warned that the directive effectively bars many individuals who helped create advanced systems from accessing them. calling the result “brain flight” risk toward Chinese AI companies such as DeepSeek and Moonshot AI.
The numbers behind Zhipu’s surge are stark. Zhipu has climbed more than tenfold since its initial public offering in January, a run buoyed by optimism over China’s position in AI. MiniMax has not matched that trajectory, with investors assigning it a steeper discount.
As of Monday, Zhipu’s market capitalization stood at HK$489 billion, nearly four times larger than MiniMax’s HK$124.2 billion. Both companies are planning to list on China’s Nasdaq-like STAR Market in Shanghai.
BofA analysts pointed to why the premium might be sticking: Zhipu’s shares “reflect faster ARR [annual recurring revenue] growth. stronger talent density [and] public backing. and its lead in enterprise revenue exposure.” They also described MiniMax as a possible catch-up trade. noting that MiniMax’s estimated price-to-sales multiple compares favorably to Zhipu’s. while the gap is currently too wide given MiniMax’s product breadth.
For now, the story playing out in Hong Kong trading isn’t just about one model release. It’s about where access is tightening in Washington—and how quickly China’s companies are trying to turn open distribution, pricing momentum, and Wall Street confidence into next-quarter leverage.
Zhipu Knowledge Atlas Technology MiniMax Anthropic Fable 5 Mythos 5 GLM-5.2 AI models Hong Kong stocks JPMorgan Bank of America open-source STAR Market U.S. AI curbs