Undecided voters – A new Washington Post and George Mason University poll shows Janeese Lewis George extending her lead over Kenyan McDuffie in the Democratic primary for Washington, D.C. Mayor, but 25% of potential voters remain undecided—setting up a ranked-choice fight where
By the time Washington, D.C. voters start ranking candidates, the race already has a shape. Janeese Lewis George is holding an 11-percentage-point advantage over Kenyan McDuffie among 836 Democratic voters expected to vote in this month’s primary. Yet 25% of potential voters say they’re undecided—meaning the winner may not be decided by first-choice support alone.
Lewis George’s rise in the polls comes as Mayor Muriel Bowser publicly criticized mayoral hopefuls over youth curfew legislation and called out five DC Council members for refusing to support extending the city’s youth curfew, including Lewis George.
The latest numbers. released Friday by the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. show Lewis George’s lead widening to double digits compared with her top competitor. In an earlier Washington DC mayoral poll released last month, Lewis George had held a 5-point advantage over McDuffie.
Lewis George leads by 11 points among Democratic primary voters
In the new poll, Lewis George—a DC Council member—leads McDuffie by 11 percentage points among 836 Democratic voters who plan to cast their vote in this month’s primary.
Both candidates stand well ahead of the rest of the field, including Vincent Orange, Gary Goodweather and Rini Sampath, each of whom received less than 5% of votes in the poll.
But the road to the nomination is complicated by the presence of voters who haven’t committed yet. The poll found 25% of potential voters are undecided. For McDuffie, that portion of the electorate is more than noise; it is the space where a comeback could be built.
Rozell, the dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government, put it plainly: “Theoretically, at least, that gives McDuffie a chance to make the case, to bring in the persuadable voters.”
Ranked-choice voting could reshape outcomes beyond first-choice polling
This year’s primary includes ranked-choice voting for the first time. It follows a measure DC voters overwhelmingly approved in 2024. Under ranked-choice voting, voters choose their favored candidate and rank their next-favorite choices. A winner is determined if no candidate reaches more than 50% of first-choice votes.
The poll suggests that even with second and third choices considered, Lewis George still maintains a double-digit lead. That detail matters: it means the race is not simply about whether McDuffie can win undecided voters’ hearts. but about whether he can turn those preferences into enough ranking support to close the gap.
Where support is strongest—and where it breaks
The poll also maps the race along key demographic and ideological lines.
Lewis George’s advantage is strongest among younger voters and white voters. McDuffie holds a 5-point advantage among Black voters.
Ideology shows a sharper divide. Lewis George, a progressive candidate, has a significant 45-point advantage with voters who identify as “very liberal.” McDuffie holds advantages with moderate and conservative voters.
Rozell described Lewis George’s position on the progressive side of the electorate, saying she is “clearly is the candidate who has the favor of the progressive left, who see her as the agent of change in the city.”
In other words, the poll paints a contest where the base is real and measurable—but where turnout and second-choice ranking could still determine how far that base carries the winner to the finish line.
Where the race stands right now
With Lewis George leading by 11 percentage points among Democratic primary voters expected to vote. she enters the ranked-choice era with a clear statistical edge. The twist is the share of undecided voters—25% of potential voters—who could end up ranking candidates in ways that reshuffle vote transfers if first-choice tallies don’t produce an outright majority.
At the same time. the primary’s field is relatively top-heavy in the poll results. with Vincent Orange. Gary Goodweather and Rini Sampath each receiving less than 5%. That concentration means voters who are still deciding may end up choosing between Lewis George and McDuffie—or ranking them differently than they might at a simple plurality election.
For now, Lewis George’s lead looks durable across multiple preference levels. Still, with ranked-choice voting in play and a sizable undecided bloc holding the keys, the outcome remains anything but settled.
Washington DC mayoral race Janeese Lewis George Kenyan McDuffie Muriel Bowser DC Council youth curfew legislation ranked-choice voting Democratic primary undecided voters Washington Post poll George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
Ranked choice sounds like a lot of math for people who just wanna pick one person. If she already has an 11-point lead then why is it even a question?
Muriel Bowser calling out curfew people feels like DC politics as usual. I don’t even know what “ranked choice fight” means but if 25% are undecided then whoever’s louder probably wins anyway.
Wait so they’re saying Janeese Lewis George is up double digits but then the undecided voters could flip it? That’s just like “technically anything can happen” lol. Also I thought ranked choice means you vote for the worst candidate first or something? Idk.
Honestly I don’t trust any poll that’s only 836 people. That’s like a small group at a bar and they’re acting like it’s the whole city. And curfew drama, seriously? Might be a distraction because the real issue is housing prices or whatever, but they never talk about that in headlines.