With the projected 2026 U.S. Open cut line sitting around +4, several prominent players—including Scottie Scheffler—are positioned near the edge as Friday’s second round unfolds at Shinnecock Hills.
The wait isn’t long at Shinnecock Hills—just long enough to make a weekend feel like something you have to earn. As Friday moves through Round 2 at the 2026 U.S. Open. the cut line has become a scoreboard obsession. especially for players perched near the numbers that separate next-tee momentum from early departures.
Scottie Scheffler, one of the tournament’s biggest names, is among those feeling the pressure. After a rocky 2-over 72 in Thursday’s opening round—one marked by several uncharacteristically wayward shots and more scrambling than usual—he enters Friday at +2 (2:24 p.m. ET) and will be watching the projected cut line climb or hold with every completed hole.
The backdrop helps explain why the margins feel so tight. The first round began with heavy fog and a brutal wind. then improved scoring conditions arrived later Thursday afternoon and carried into Friday’s second round. When the U.S. Open was last held at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, the cut line wound up at +8. A repeat of that difficulty looks unlikely this year. but the threat of missing the cut is still real—because the current math is unforgiving.
At 1 p.m. ET on Friday, the cut line sits at +3 based on the scores of the top 60 golfers (and ties) on the current leaderboard. Under that scenario, every golfer at +3 or better would make it to the weekend.
The headline figure, though, comes from forecasting. Datagolf.com’s predictive model currently projects +4 as the most likely cut line for the 2026 U.S. Open, with a 71.2% chance. The model also shows a 15.2% chance it rises to +5 and a 13.3% chance it lands at +3 by the end of Friday’s second round.
How the cut is set is straightforward: the top 60 golfers (and ties) make the 36-hole cut at the 2026 U.S. Open. That means one bad swing, one gust, one missed read can turn a player from “probably safe” to “needs everything to go right.”
The players in the most precarious zones include several former champions and household names. Bryson DeChambeau is at +5 (15) and is scheduled to play in a way that keeps his path to the weekend uncertain until the scoring settles. Jordan Spieth is also at +5 (12). Brooks Koepka is at +3 (1:40 p.m. ET). right at the line where the difference between making it and falling short is determined by who catches fire—and who runs out of holes.
Other golfers currently in danger of the cut include:
Joaquin Niemann at +3 (14), Min Woo Lee at +3 (13), and Patrick Cantlay at +3 (13). Adam Scott is at +3 (2:13 p.m. ET). Neal Shipley is at +4 (17), and Shane Lowry is at +4 (14). Hideki Matsuyama is at +4 (13), while Sungjae Im is also at +4 (1:40 p.m. ET). Tyrrell Hatton sits at +4 (1:51 p.m. ET).
Hideaki’s mix of standings continues with players at +5 and beyond: Viktor Hovland at +5 (15), Chris Gotterup at +5 (1:40 p.m. ET), Cameron Smith at +5 (1:29 p.m. ET), and Billy Horschel at +6 (13). Graeme McDowell is at +6 (1:29 p.m. ET) and J.J. Spaun is at +7 (2:24 p.m. ET). Daniel Berger is at +7 (1:51 p.m. ET), Si Woo Kim is at +7 (1:51 p.m. ET), and Mason Howell (a) is at +8 (2:24 p.m. ET).
While the cut-line battle tightens for the players around the projected numbers. the tournament has already delivered pressure moments—such as Joaquin Niemann receiving a 2-stroke penalty for a club throw. That kind of swing-of-the-day incident can be the difference between being one shot ahead of trouble and being fully caught in it.
The same scoreboard logic runs beneath the top tier of the field and the scramble for survival: the cut is determined by who sits inside the top 60 (and ties) after 36 holes. not by reputation. With the model pointing to +4 as most likely. being at +3 or +5 doesn’t mean you’re safe—it means you’re exposed to whatever the wind and daylight decide to do next.
By the numbers at 1 p.m. ET on Friday. the cut line is +3. the model’s best guess for the end of Round 2 is +4. and the range of outcomes remains narrow enough to keep every player near the line fully awake. That includes Scottie Scheffler, whose stated focus is handling expectations ahead of the 2026 U.S. Open, and the rest of the group hovering between “make the weekend” and “watch from home.”.
2026 U.S. Open Shinnecock Hills cut line Scottie Scheffler Datagolf.com Bryson DeChambeau Jordan Spieth Brooks Koepka Joaquin Niemann penalty