U.S. likely – After Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 3-1 win over Qatar clinched third place in Group B, the United States is now widely positioned for a favorable Round of 32 matchup next week. The U.S. still must play Türkiye on Thursday, though the group-stage finale functions a
On a night when Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1, the U.S. learned something it didn’t want to hear too early—and yet couldn’t ignore: the Round of 32 opponent is increasingly coming into focus.
The Athletic reports there is now greater than a 99% chance the United States Men’s National Team will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 next week. following Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Wednesday victory over Qatar. With the United States having won Group D last week. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s result clinched third place in Group B—effectively locking in the path for the Stars and Stripes.
Two other countries—Senegal and Austria—each have less than a 1% chance of facing the U.S. to start the knockout stage. A draw would have opened up numerous other possibilities, but instead the bracket picture tightened around one outcome: Bosnia and Herzegovina.
That matters not just because it’s clearer, but because it looks favorable on paper. Bosnia and Herzegovina is ranked 62nd in the FIFA program standings, while the United States is 14th. Qatar, meanwhile, was eliminated with the loss.
Before the U.S. can fully turn its attention to next week’s likely matchup. it still has one task left in group play: it needs to face Türkiye to round out the schedule. Even so, the stakes feel muted. The U.S. already won the group. and Türkiye has already been eliminated. turning Thursday’s game into little more than a scrimmage.
The schedule is also setting up a comfortable looking next step. If the U.S. advances to the Round of 16, it would face either the Group G winner or another third-place squad. Among the possible opponents in that round. only Belgium currently needs a win and help to win Group G—and Belgium is ranked 10th in the world. ahead of the U.S.
Right now, the Americans are playing with momentum. Through the World Cup to date, the U.S. has scored six goals in two games. It is already tied for its most in the group stage, even with one game remaining.
The start of the tournament was decisive. The U.S. opened with a 4-1 win over Paraguay, then followed with a 2-0 victory over Australia to clinch its trip to the Round of 32. The group was sealed when Paraguay defeated Türkiye later that night.
The victories also snapped a long wait for the program. It marked the first time the U.S. men’s national team won back-to-back World Cup games since the inaugural event in 1930.
There’s still a human element to the remaining group game, even if the result barely changes the destination. The match against Türkiye kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, and the likely next opponent—Bosnia and Herzegovina—would come next Wednesday in the Bay Area.
United States men's national team World Cup Round of 32 Bosnia and Herzegovina Qatar Türkiye Group D FIFA World Cup 2026