Minnesota’s Weather Authority issued a Forecast First ALERT for Wednesday, warning of strong to severe thunderstorms in two rounds—an overnight push from the Dakotas and a daytime surge along the I-35 corridor. The greatest severe risks for the Twin Cities hin
By midnight, the atmosphere across Minnesota is already turning restless—enough that Minnesota’s Weather Authority has put the state on a Forecast First ALERT for Wednesday.
The warning isn’t about one simple storm. It’s about timing. Between tonight and Wednesday evening, forecasters are tracking two distinct rounds of severe thunderstorms, and where they ultimately land depends on whether morning cloud cover and leftover showers hang on.
Minnesota’s Weather Authority says the broad setup is conditional, but the stakes are clear: the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro, under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
The first round arrives overnight. Between midnight and 5 AM Wednesday, storms are expected to develop across the Dakotas and move eastward into Minnesota. This round will likely organize into a squall line capable of producing damaging wind gusts, with western Minnesota particularly vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to reach the Twin Cities metro between roughly 2 AM and 5 AM.
Then the forecast turns on a narrow window of hours. From 5 AM to noon Wednesday, morning storms gradually move east. Forecasters will closely watch how much cloud cover and leftover rain remains behind. calling it a critical part of the forecast—because it will shape how strong the air can become later.
By afternoon, the second round takes over. Between 2 PM and 5 PM Wednesday, storms are expected to develop along and near the I-35 corridor as daytime heating combines with lingering boundaries from the morning storms.
After that, the picture shifts again as storms push east. Between 5 PM and 10 PM Wednesday, storms should grow and organize as they move into Wisconsin, where the greatest severe weather risk may ultimately reside.
The threats vary with each wave. For the overnight storms, damaging straight-line winds are the primary concern, especially across western Minnesota as the squall line moves east.
For the afternoon and evening storms, the biggest concerns are large hail, isolated tornadoes, and damaging winds. Storms may initially develop as more discrete cells capable of producing hail and isolated tornadoes. As they move east into Wisconsin and begin to organize. the threat may transition toward stronger and more widespread wind damage.
The entire forecast hangs on one question: what happens after the morning round. If clouds and leftover showers linger through much of Wednesday afternoon, instability would be limited across eastern Minnesota. In that scenario. forecasters say the more significant severe weather threat would likely shift farther east into Wisconsin. reducing impacts across the Twin Cities metro.
If skies recover quickly and sunshine returns during the afternoon, severe weather potential would increase across eastern Minnesota before storms move into Wisconsin.
Even with the storm drama, the week ahead isn’t expected to turn cold. Beyond the storms, temperatures will remain summer-like. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 80s with very humid conditions before cooler and quieter weather arrives late week.
Thursday brings clouds and scattered showers with highs in the 70s. Friday looks warm and pleasant with sunshine returning and highs near 80°.
Minnesota’s Weather Authority urged residents to stay tuned through the overnight hours and throughout Wednesday as the severe weather forecast continues to be refined and storm development is monitored in real time. The KSTP app is available for the latest weather alerts.
Minnesota Minnesota's Weather Authority Forecast First Alert severe thunderstorms Twin Cities Enhanced Risk Storm Prediction Center squall line damaging wind gusts large hail isolated tornadoes I-35 corridor Wisconsin
So basically storms all day? Great.
Enhanced Risk Level 3 means it’s gonna be bad right? I thought Level 3 was like “kinda” dangerous but everyone’s acting like tornado apocalypse. Also why do they keep saying two rounds like that helps?
Is this the one where it hits the Twin Cities first then moves to Iowa? My cousin said it’s coming in from the west but the article says Dakotas overnight so… same thing? Either way I’m not sleeping with all this stuff turning “restless” at midnight lol.
I don’t get how timing depends on cloud cover. Like if there’s clouds, does that magically stop the tornadoes? They keep mentioning I-35 and morning leftovers, and then it turns into a squall line with wind gusts. Either way I’m staying off the roads during that 2 to 5 window because it sounds like the “daytime surge” is when people get stuck.