Tuesday’s primaries – Six states—California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico—vote Tuesday in contests that could echo well beyond the ballots: California and Iowa’s governor primaries are tied to larger congressional ambitions in the fall, while competitive H
An “I Voted” sign stands beside a vote center in Los Angeles on June 1, 2026. Less than a year later, Tuesday arrives with a different kind of pressure: six states holding primaries where outcomes may not just decide candidates, but also map the political terrain ahead of November.
Most attention centers on California and Iowa. where competitive governor contests sit alongside races Democratic strategists see as critical to controlling Congress in the fall. In California. the top-two structure means what happens Tuesday doesn’t just pick a nominee—it decides who moves on to the general election regardless of party. In Iowa. Democrats are trying to create an opening in races they view as difficult but not impossible. including a key Senate seat and an open governor contest.
California’s primary system turns Tuesday into a test of who broadens appeal—and who doesn’t. With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, voters are choosing from more than 60 candidates after three prominent Democrats—former Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla and state Attorney General Rob Bonta—decided not to run. Only the top two vote-getters advance to November.
The scramble has been chaotic enough that former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell—once seen as a presumed favorite—dropped out of the race after he was accused of sexual misconduct by several women. With that shakeup. polls show the contest could come down to two Democrats: Xavier Becerra. the Health and Human Services secretary under former President Joe Biden. and Tom Steyer. a billionaire philanthropist.
Becerra’s résumé is built on decades in California and Washington. Before his cabinet appointment, he served 12 terms in Congress and was elected as California attorney general in 2016. His pitch is that he’s a proven leader who can hold his own and protect California from President Trump.
Steyer, meanwhile, has spent heavily. He has forked over more than $213 million of his own fortune on the race. and he is also financially backed by Our Revolution. a group aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Steyer’s platform focuses on taking a stand against special-interest groups in politics.
Republican Steve Hilton remains in the mix. The former Fox News host was endorsed by President Trump in April. after which Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco quickly dropped in the polls. Hilton’s platform centers on increasing affordable housing supply for first-time home buyers. bolstering tech industries and reviving California’s film industry. Polling shows Hilton is just a few points behind Becerra and Steyer.
As ballots are counted, Tuesday also carries stakes for the congressional districts that California voters reshaped through Proposition 50. In November last year. Californians approved Proposition 50 in response to Texas redrawing its congressional lines to create five Republican-leaning districts at the behest of President Trump. The measure temporarily sidestepped the independent redistricting commission tasked with drawing non-partisan influenced congressional boundaries. in favor of politically gerrymandered districts. That decision allowed state Democrats to redraw their map so five previously Republican-held districts now lean Democratic.
The new lines have left some Republican incumbents facing an uncertain political future. Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving Republican from California, and Rep. Young Kim are running in the same district. Rep. Kevin Kiley is in a different bind: after being drawn into a more Democratic-leaning district. he announced he was leaving the Republican party and running as an independent. while saying he would still caucus with Republicans.
Because California’s primary system advances the top two vote-getters to November’s general election regardless of political party. several competitive seats could become competitive primaries between Democrats—an outcome that allows primary voters to signal what kinds of candidates they want in the places where politics is most at stake.
Iowa’s Tuesday is built around a different kind of countdown: an open governor contest and a Senate decision Democrats believe could bend the national picture.
Sitting Gov. Kim Reynolds is not running for reelection, leaving Iowa’s Republican voters to determine their nominee in the first open race for the office since 2011. With five Republicans on Tuesday’s ballot, Rep. Randy Feenstra is the only candidate endorsed by Trump.
The contest tests whether that endorsement still holds weight in a state where Trump’s approval rating has slipped over the economy and the war in Iran. One recent poll suggests Feenstra’s lead may be declining, with political newcomer and Iowa businessman Zach Lahn in striking range.
Tuesday also includes a procedural twist that could delay resolution. Iowans have a shot at deciding the winner directly, but a candidate must secure 35% of the vote to win outright. If no one clears that threshold. the nominee will be decided at a Republican convention where delegates—not primary voters—make the final choice.
Whoever emerges on Tuesday still faces a difficult path in November. Cook Political Report categorizes the governor’s race as a toss-up with a slight Republican advantage. The Republican nominee will face unopposed Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in the general election. Sand is popular among voters and has, so far, outraised any other candidate for governor.
For Democrats, the bigger prize may be the Senate. Democratic voters in Iowa will pick which candidate they believe has the best shot at beating the Republican nominee for Senate. expected to be Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson. Democrats see the seat as one they can flip come November. as part of a broader strategy aimed at expanding their map and winning in states currently held by Republican senators to retake the Senate majority.
Tuesday’s Democratic choice comes down to state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls. Turek is vying for the independent-leaning vote, while Wahls is hoping to gain support from committed Democrats. Turek flipped a state house district held by a Republican, while Wahls represents a senate district that is solidly blue. Both argue they are the candidate with the right message to win in November.
In a state where three competitive congressional races are also on the ballot, some Democrats see Iowa as a route toward a Democratic majority in Congress.
The race for power is not confined to California and Iowa. New Jersey and Montana offer their own tests of political momentum.
In New Jersey, all eyes are on Congressional District 7. Four Democrats are hoping to oust Republican Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. Kean has been notably absent from Washington for weeks due to what he cites as unspecified medical issues. He has missed more than 100 House votes since his last recorded vote on March 5.
In Montana, two races may be more competitive than expected after last-minute announcements, shortly before the filing deadline, by Republicans—Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke—saying neither would seek reelection.
Montana has long been considered a Republican stronghold. and an open Senate seat does not automatically make it competitive for Democrats. Still, an independent candidate is outraising candidates in both major parties. Seth Bodnar. an Iraq war veteran and former president of the University of Montana. is hoping voters send him to Washington on a message that he won’t work for either party and is focused on changing the direction America is heading.
Bodnar has enough voter signatures to land on the November ballot, but the Montana Secretary of State’s Office has not yet certified those signatures.
Democrats are also working to flip Montana’s 1st Congressional District. When Zinke announced he was retiring from Congress, it was viewed as an opening for Democrats. Now. four Democrats are angling for the open seat. including frontrunner Sam Forstag. a smokejumper who is endorsed by popular progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
The sequence of Tuesday’s races reads like a chain reaction: in California. district redraws and a top-two primary system can turn internal competition into the general election’s starting lineup; in Iowa. a 35% threshold and a Trump-backed GOP lane collide with Democratic hopes to flip a Senate seat. Across New Jersey and Montana. absences. retirements and last-minute candidate moves all add up to the same pressure—this is not just who will win a primary. but who will have the chance to win in November.
Tuesday primaries California governor primary top two system Gavin Newsom term limited Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton Proposition 50 Iowa governor primary Kim Reynolds Randy Feenstra Zach Lahn Ashley Hinson Iowa Senate primary Rob Sand New Jersey District 7 Thomas Kean Jr. Montana open seats Seth Bodnar Sam Forstag
So basically it’s the primaries for November right?
I don’t get why California’s setup is “top-two” like that. Doesn’t that just guarantee it’s gonna be the same two people forever or something? Also Iowa sounds like they’re trying to force a win.
Top-two means if you’re Republican you can somehow still get on the general?? Like I heard that somewhere, so the “primary decides who moves on” part is kinda wild. But then it says it’s also about controlling Congress, which feels like a stretch. Primaries are just vibes, not strategy.
California and Iowa being “tied to congressional ambitions” is what they always say right before nobody actually wins and everything flips. I swear in CA the general election is already picked by party insiders, so this “test of who broadens appeal” is probably just marketing. I’m more worried about the random states voting too—like Montana and New Mexico, I feel like those results get ignored every time.