Trump endorses – With Texas voters heading to the May Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate seat between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton has injected fresh urgency into a race already showing a narrow, moving polling margin. New polli
Election Day in Texas is here for a runoff that has pulled national attention into a state-level rematch with real financial and political consequences.
At the center is a decision between incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with the winner set to face Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in November’s general election.
The race has been further fueled by President Donald Trump’s late endorsement of Paxton over Cornyn—an intervention that, while welcomed by MAGA-aligned Republicans, triggered backlash from Senate Republican leadership.
Trump endorses Paxton over Cornyn
Last week, President Donald Trump weighed in on the Cornyn–Paxton Senate race, endorsing Paxton. The move immediately drew backlash from Senate Republican leadership but praise from MAGA voters.
In explaining his decision. Trump said he backed Paxton because the attorney general was “extremely loyal” to Trump and to the MAGA movement. Trump also said Cornyn is a “good man. ” but argued the senator did not support him when “times were tough” and that he backed Trump late during Trump’s 2024 presidential run.
For Paxton, Trump’s endorsement is already being treated like momentum in a sprint rather than a suggestion.
Paxton says Trump’s endorsement gives him “a bit of momentum” in the race for the Texas Senate seat.
Polls show Paxton edging Cornyn, with uncertainty still high
Even before the endorsement, the numbers were tight enough to feel fragile. An early May poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found Paxton holding a narrow lead while leaving a significant share of Texans undecided.
That poll, conducted from April 28 to May 1 and sampling 1,200 Texans, found Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45% among Texans likely to vote in the May Republican runoff—a 3-point margin. Still, 7% of likely voters were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
When the runoff outcome is broken down, both candidates look capable of beating Talarico—but the margin swings
The Hobby poll also asked voters whether Paxton or Cornyn had a strong chance of defeating Talarico in the November general election. In that measure, Cornyn and Paxton were tied at 43%, while 14% said neither candidate.
But earlier polling showed Talarico with a clearer edge. A poll conducted April 17–20 by the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico ahead against both Republicans: 44%–41% over Cornyn and 46%–41% over Paxton.
Since then, additional polling points to a tightening in Republicans’ favor as the runoff approaches.
A more recent May poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center tested the matchup against Talarico separately for each Republican—depending on who wins the runoff on May 26.
If Cornyn wins the runoff on May 26, 45% of likely voters say they would vote for Cornyn, 44% for Democrat James Talarico, 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown, and 8% are undecided.
If Paxton wins the runoff on May 26, 45% of likely voters say they would vote for Paxton, 45% for Democrat James Talarico, 2% for Libertarian Ted Brown, and 8% are undecided.
The practical takeaway from the polling is that the contest is not just a Republican primary fight—it’s a narrow general-election crossroads. The margin of undecided voters and the slight shifts between polls mean turnout. messaging. and persuasion in the final stretch could decide more than party bragging rights.
As Texans head to the polls, the runoff between Cornyn and Paxton is shaping into a high-stakes hinge: the winner doesn’t just earn the November ticket, they may also inherit the slimmest possible path—one where a few percentage points can be the difference between holding a seat and losing it.
Texas Senate runoff Ken Paxton John Cornyn Donald Trump endorsement James Talarico U.S. Senate election polling Hobby School of Public Affairs Texas Public Opinion Research Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research May 26 runoff