Trump isn’t – With 2028 still wide open, Donald Trump is asking around about JD Vance versus Marco Rubio—while the vice president tries to prove himself through book promotions and high-stakes Iran diplomacy. Rally-goers split between both men, but pressure is mounting on V
When Vicki Schwartz steps out from President Donald Trump’s June 24 rally on the National Mall. she already knows the tug-of-war she’ll face at the ballot box in 2028. She is drawn to JD Vance—“Hillbilly Elegy” helped, and she says his appearance on “The View” impressed her. But she also worries about the question everyone is asking as Trump’s second-term horizon comes into view: if Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both want the nomination to succeed President Donald Trump. who gets her vote?.
“I kind of feel like they should flip a coin, and then whoever wins the coin flip, that one runs for president, or gets first choice,” Schwartz said, adding that an endorsement from Trump would make her decision easier.
Her uncertainty is echoed inside the White House. where Trump has stayed noncommittal—even as Vance. 70-year-old suburban Columbus resident and an Ohio native. is increasingly pushed to cement his place as the Republican heir people expect to defeat by early next year. In conversations with nearly a dozen sources close to the White House. most of whom requested anonymity to discuss private interactions. Trump allies and allies of the president and vice president said the president isn’t sold on Vance as his 2028 pick.
The president has been asking those around him what they think of Vance and Rubio. according to the people close to the administration. Rubio, by contrast, is a seasoned politician and has become one of Trump’s most trusted advisers on international affairs. One person close to the White House described Trump’s approach as keeping the clock loose—an “ultimate game of ‘The Apprentice. ’” where he still feels he has time to decide.
Vance, for his part, has not said publicly whether he intends to run for higher office. But he is seizing the spotlight—promoting his new book. “Communion. ” and taking part in interviews tied to the Iran peace negotiations. He has also insisted that his focus remains on helping Republicans win the November midterms and excelling at the vice presidency.
In a June interview, Vance said: “I don’t think that you should be thinking so much about a job you could have years down the road when you’re still a year and a half into the job the American people elected you to do.”
Schwartz’s conflict is personal, but the campaign logic around Vance is increasingly public. At the rally. Nasim Nabily. a 43-year-old business owner from Landover. Maryland. said she is “not as hard-hitting as Trump. but he’s a little more articulate.” Nabily said she had seen Vance defending the administration’s policies on television and that she was familiar with “Hillbilly Elegy.” She also acknowledged that she doesn’t know much more about the Ohio native. other than he had converted to Trumpism and Catholicism not long before he ran for office.
Logan Hottell, an 18-year-old recently graduated high school student from Stanton, Virginia, pointed to another detail that has helped Vance stand out in the crowd—he said he’s inclined to support Vance and would like to learn more, identifying him as a former Marine.
In “Communion,” Vance lays out ideas that he hopes voters can read as both political identity and governing philosophy. One passage describes backing state-level bans on businesses being open on holidays like Thanksgiving so workers can be with their families—a policy proposal that creates a rare dividing line between Vance and Trump. who has pushed for fewer non-working federal holidays. The book also comes alongside Vance’s public argument that he supports the right of workers to privately unionize and bargain for higher wages. a position Trump has not embraced.
Vance describes himself as both an economic populist and a religious conservative. In the same June interview, he said: “I don’t think economic populism is somehow inconsistent with religious conservatism. I would say the tradition of the Christian church is very supportive of a particular kind of economic populism.” He also said it is consistent with his Christian. Catholic faith that there be a distribution of resources aligned with the common good.
That messaging is part of a broader push to stake out his lane with voters. But even as he crafts his own pitch, Vance still needs to prove himself to Trump.
Trump, meanwhile, continues to treat the choice like it’s still in motion. He has posed the question privately to people around him for at least a year: JD Vance or Marco Rubio?. One person close to the White House said the president has asked about it in meetings in the Oval Office and at Mar-a-Lago. The president even tested the mood publicly, polling a crowd of law enforcement officers at a recent Rose Garden dinner.
At the dinner, Trump quipped: “Who likes JD Vance?” He then asked: “Who likes Marco Rubio? Alright, sounds like a good ticket.” He added quickly: “That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance.”
Although the 2028 lineup remains unsettled, speculation on the GOP side has largely centered on the two highest-ranking Cabinet officials. Two people close to the White House said Trump is heavily focused on which candidate has the best chance of winning. They said he is looking at Rubio—former Florida senator and 2016 presidential contender—wondering whether Rubio might have better odds than Vance.
Vance has long been viewed as more aligned with the MAGA base. while Rubio has faced suspicions about his work on immigration reform and a hawkish record. Still, Vance has gained ground. An Emerson College survey of Republican voters released in May showed Vance at 36% support and Rubio at 35%. a statistical tie within the poll’s 4.7 percentage-point margin of error.
Trump’s method appears to rely on gauging sentiment and keeping options open. Another person close to the White House said Trump has a history of polling those around him about future decisions and that he is always looking to gauge public sentiment. One source said Trump often figures it out through pointed questions.
The sources also offered competing explanations for why Vance still hasn’t been locked in. One person said it doesn’t mean Trump is down on Vance. suggesting he may be trying to keep the vice president on his toes and motivated to deliver. Another person said Vance remains the default nominee and that Trump entrusting him with an Iran deal that could make or break his presidency is a sign of Vance’s clout.
Vance’s role as the Republican National Committee’s chief fundraiser has helped him get in front of donors and made him a visible face in midterm campaigning. Yet Rubio’s record matters to many strategists: he has run for president once before. has a longer track record with donors. and has more experience politically and on foreign policy—an area where Vance has been trying to build credibility.
One person close to the White House said Vance appears to be auditioning for Trump’s endorsement through negotiations connected to the Iran deal. Friends of Vance denied that charge.
Trump has offered praise, but he has also attached risk to the outcome. After Vance traveled overseas to meet with Iranian leaders. Trump said on June 22: “I thought JD Vance this morning was fantastic. I watched his news conference from Switzerland. He’s a very smart guy. He did a great job.” But on June 17. Trump told reporters that if the deal goes sideways. it would be Vance’s fault.
A person close to the White House said a bad deal would be a death knell for Vance. They said the perception that it is not a win would become a massive political vulnerability.
Trump’s style of keeping people guessing, they added, could also open a window for other candidates. If he delays endorsement, the vice president may lose momentum—or other contenders may find space.
Rubio has said he wants to stay in his current role until the end of Trump’s term. and has indicated publicly that he won’t run if Vance does. But one insider said Rubio’s actions, like taking the White House podium in May, suggest a different story. The president has suggested multiple times that they run together on one ticket. though he hasn’t said which of them should be at the top.
Three sources close to the White House said U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who declined to comment, is also considering a run. They also suggested other big names could emerge.
Even the patience calculus at the grassroots is split. Retired real estate agent Paul Ayers. a 73-year-old Trump backer who traveled from Phoenix to attend the president’s rally. said both Vance and Rubio are “both really excellent. ” but he suspects the vice president would have the organizing edge. Ayers pointed to a prior Trump-backed decision when he said Trump’s pick for Iowa governor. Randy Feenstra. lost the Republican primary to a Turning Point USA-backed candidate.
Still, Ayers said he plans to back Vance. “I think I’m going to go with Vance no matter what,” he said of a Trump endorsement.
Vance has also signaled he’s not rushing an announcement. He said he’ll huddle with his wife. Usha. after the midterms. without specifying when exactly he will make an announcement. In response to whether he thought it had to be by the end of the year. Vance told the publication on June: “I just haven’t really thought that much about it.”.
His team. the report said. hasn’t done polling or organizing in possible early states. and doesn’t view him as needing to make a decision in 2026. GOP operatives with experience in presidential campaigns offered mixed views about how long he can wait. Some said early jockeying could begin shortly after the midterms, while candidates with stronger name ID may have more runway.
Mike DuHaime. a GOP consultant and former political director for the RNC. said: “By virtue of his official position. Vance is a major player without having to announce. He can wait longer than anyone else.” Republican strategist Matt Gorman added that the incumbency advantage helps Vance—he can travel on Air Force Two and he is exempt from a law restricting U.S. officials’ ability to engage in politics.
Even with those advantages, Gorman said he doesn’t expect Trump to anoint him quickly. “I don’t expect, candidly, Trump to, the day after the midterms, anoint Vance,” he said.
For now, the logic is clear in how people around Trump—and at the rally—are behaving: Vance’s access, his visibility, and his foreign policy role keep him in the center of the conversation, even as Trump keeps the final call off the table.
In that space, every move becomes a test. The book. The diplomacy. The praise. The implied blame if the Iran deal collapses. And in the background. the simple question that Schwartz carried into the afternoon: if 2028 arrives and both men want the nomination. who will Trump finally be convinced by—and when will he decide?.
JD Vance Marco Rubio Donald Trump 2028 election vice president Iran peace negotiations Republican Party RNC fundraising Hillbilly Elegy Communion U.S. politics midterms campaign endorsements