Tony Abbott calls Viktor Orbán “Trump with brains” amid thinktank uncertainty

Tony Abbott has likened Viktor Orbán to “[Donald] Trump with brains” and described him as Hungary’s “greatest modern leader”, as the future of his work for the ousted leader’s pet thinktank now hangs in the balance.

Orbán’s 16-year grip on power in Hungary has ended after the rightwing populist leader conceded his Fidesz party had lost to the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar, which won at least 138 of the 199 seats in the country’s parliament. In practice, the transition looks neat on paper, but for the people orbiting Orbán’s political orbit, it feels less settled.

Abbott has been connected to the conservative Danube Institute as a senior visiting fellow since 2023, according to Australia’s foreign influence transparency scheme. With Orbán’s ousting, the future of pro-Fidesz thinktanks like the Danube Institute, which rely heavily on his former government’s funding, is now in doubt.

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after ‘painful’ election result – video. Abbott, Australia’s 28th prime minister, praised Orbán on social media for making Budapest “something of a haven for conservative intellectuals”, saying he did not “expect the new government will want that to change”.

“The economy has strengthened, the city of Budapest has been transformed, and Hungary’s family policies and determination to keep its culture have been studied around the world,” Abbott said. He also argued that while he and Orbán differed on Ukraine, Orbán was “dead right” to defy the EU, particularly on illegal immigration, asking why a sovereign nation should be “bullied by Brussels” into policies that could jeopardise its future as a distinct people.

Orbán’s relationship with the European institutions has been contentious for many foreign spectators over the course of his rule. Hungarian leaders have battled the European Council, which has suspended billions of euros in funding, over policies including on justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights and aid for Ukraine—an issue he has consistently blocked alongside sanctions against Russia. And, if you were in the wrong place at the wrong time in central Budapest during campaign season, you could almost feel the tension in the air—like the metallic smell that sometimes comes from nearby construction sites—though politics obviously isn’t that simple.

Abbott’s affinity with Orbán’s command of Hungary predates 2023, when he first officially joined the Danube Institute as a visiting fellow. In 2019, Abbott praised the Fidesz leader and warned a conference in Europe about “military age” male immigrants “swarming” the continent. Then, in a podcast interview this month with the Danube Institute—days before the election result became clear—Abbott again praised Orbán, saying he had “always thought of Viktor Orbán as, if you like, Trump with brains.” He described Orbán as an “absolute, passionate nationalist” and a “deep thinker,” adding: “Viktor Orbán has, I think, been Hungary’s greatest modern leader.”

He said Orbán had reminded the world that controlling immigration isn’t just about stopping illegal migrants, but also about limiting numbers so a country can keep its culture. Abbott admitted that Orbán’s controversial pronatalist policy to increase birthrates to make up for limiting migration had seen mixed success, but implored Australian conservatives to take note. “Given that our birthrate is declining fast, we are, at the moment, bringing in record numbers of migrants. Not all of them are contributing economically and socially quite as well as we would like,” he said. He added, almost abruptly—actually, maybe it wasn’t abrupt, just firm—“And I would personally like to see much lower migration and far more Australian kids.”

Abbott admitted Orbán’s ousting means uncertainty for the Danube Institute’s future, but he hasn’t clearly said what comes next. The overall picture is that, after the election, some thinktanks could be pulled back from the old funding flows, and others will scramble to prove they can survive without them—though exactly how fast that happens is harder to predict than the slogans themselves.

Guardian Australia contacted Abbott for a comment on the election outcome and his future at the Danube Institute but was referred to his social media statement.

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