The first thing many drivers check is the cost of gasoline. But diesel has been climbing fast, too—and new analysis suggests it’s quietly costing the American economy a whole lot more than most people realize.
According to Misryoum newsroom reporting, when Iran quickly closed the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes—prices jumped. With negotiations failing to produce a peace settlement over the weekend, Misryoum newsroom reporting says the price of oil is rising again.
As of April 13, Misryoum analysis indicates the disruption has saddled consumers with $19 billion in added fuel costs, tracked through an online tool launched by researchers at Brown University. The conversation may be stuck on gasoline, but diesel accounted for $9.4 billion of that increase—almost half. At about $71 per U.S. household, the pressure is not just for people who buy diesel for a car; it’s also showing up in the broader economy, even when you’re not thinking about diesel at all. You notice it in the usual places—at the pump and later, maybe, when a delivery shows up late or something costs more.
Some of the reason diesel hits harder is how many parts of daily life run on it. Misryoum editorial desk notes diesel is essential to commercial operations like trucking, rail, agriculture, and construction. Virtually every good in the country moves through the diesel supply chain at some point, and higher costs get passed along, eventually.
Diesel also behaves a bit differently in the market than gasoline. Misryoum newsroom reported that Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, explained each barrel of oil produces less diesel than gasoline, which means the impact can be disproportionately higher. Brown’s tracker shows diesel prices have climbed 54 percent since the war began on February 28, compared to a 38 percent jump for gasoline. In plain terms: even if you don’t see diesel on the evening news, the math shows it’s taking a bigger bite.
To make it even more tangled, Misryoum analysis indicates the timing of the conflict layered on top of seasonal fuel dynamics. The United States and Israel began bombing Iran on the heels of a long, cold winter in New England, where most of the country’s heating oil is consumed. Heating oil and diesel have nearly identical molecular structures and energy content, so upward seasonal pressure was already building at the pump. “Coming out of winter, heating oil consumption is elevated,” De Haan said—meaning it tends to feed into diesel pressures as well.
There are supposed to be winners, too. Jeff Colgan of Brown said the biggest beneficiaries are oil producers not trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, with Russia described as by far the biggest—along with the United States. Even after a two-week ceasefire meant to open the strait, Misryoum editorial desk noted only a handful of ships transited the waterway. When peace talks collapsed, President Donald Trump announced a blockade on Iranian ports, starting Monday morning, driving oil prices higher again. And while the commonly cited benchmark, Brent crude, reflects what traders expect a barrel will be worth in a month or two, Misryoum analysis suggests spot prices—the cost to buy a barrel now—have been trending higher than that. That mismatch could mean the crisis is more severe than many realize.
It also raises the uncomfortable question of what happens when the strait opens and shipping resumes. Even then, Misryoum newsroom reporting points to months of rebuilding damaged oil infrastructure and the market recalibrating. There’s also uncertainty about new factors, like Iran reportedly wanting to charge million-dollar tanker fees that could be passed down to customers. And with winter ending and summer coming—when gasoline prices are highest—De Haan expects the gap between the two fuels to shrink. “From here on out,” he said, “you may see a little bit less of an increase in diesel as markets move up.” Maybe. Or maybe it just changes shape, and you still feel it—somewhere between the invoice and the next tank fill, the smell of fuel hanging around a little longer than it should.
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