Texas poll – A snap poll released by Texas Public Opinion Research Friday, May 29, shows Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton by 3 points in the U.S. Senate race, but Democrats still trail in the state’s governor and attorney general
For a moment, the race for Texas’ next U.S. Senate seat feels within reach for Democrats.
In a snap poll released Friday. May 29 by the Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR). Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican candidate Ken Paxton by 3 points. The poll puts Talarico at the edge of the margin of error. but the number matters: it suggests momentum after Republicans locked in their nominee.
That optimism doesn’t carry cleanly into the rest of the statewide map. In the governor’s race and the contest to replace Paxton as Texas’ chief legal officer, Democrats are still behind with November’s general election ballot “almost finalized.”
The Senate race: a narrow gap after the primary runoff
The TPOR snap poll shows Talarico leading Paxton — 3 points — in the U.S. Senate race. The poll was conducted after the Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas.
This comes against a backdrop in which Texas Senator John Cornyn lost the Republican primary race for Senate to Trump-endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The governor’s race: Abbott keeps a comfortable lead
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa both won their party’s primary outright in March, avoiding a runoff.
TPOR’s May poll shows Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 46% to 41%, with 9% undecided. The lead matches what TPOR reported in April: a five-point advantage for Abbott.
Demographics in the poll split the electorate sharply. Hinojosa leads with independents (+27), moderates (+38), college-educated voters (+16), and Black voters (+32). Abbott holds a slim lead among Latino voters (+2).
The attorney general race: a MAGA-aligned candidate pulls ahead
Republicans have their nominee for attorney general in November after “MAGA” Mayes Middleton won the party’s runoff in late May over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy.
Middleton brands himself as MAGA and aligns with President Donald Trump’s values, but has not received his endorsement.
TPOR’s May poll shows Middleton leading Democratic candidate Nathan Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% undecided.
Johnson leads with independents (+21), moderates (+37), and college-educated voters (+16). The poll did not specify the demographics on which Middleton leads.
One issue sits above the rest: affordability
When Texans were asked to name their top concern, affordability and the cost of living came out on top. TPOR found 23% of voters cite it as their priority—more than double any other issue.
After affordability, the next most-cited issues were democracy and voting rights at 11%, immigration at 10%, health care and access at 9%, and economic growth and job creation at 7%.
The last time a Democrat won governor in Texas was 1990, when Ann Richards took office. Richards lost her reelection bid to George W. Bush in 1994, and 1994 was also the last time a Democrat won a statewide office.
A tight Senate contest, wider statewide gaps
The numbers in this snapshot map the political reality Democrats face going into November. A Democratic lead exists in the U.S. Senate race—James Talarico at 3 points over Ken Paxton—yet the governor and attorney general results point in the opposite direction.
With the general election ballot “almost finalized,” Democrats are left with a narrower path: they need more than one bright spot to keep pace across statewide offices, while Republicans aim to convert voter focus on affordability into steady support across races.
The next few steps will matter, because the margins—especially in the Senate—are tight enough that shifting undecided voters could change how close Texas looks on paper by Election Day.
Texas poll TPOR James Talarico Ken Paxton Greg Abbott Gina Hinojosa Mayes Middleton Nathan Johnson Texas attorney general race U.S. Senate race 2026 affordability voters Texas