A Texas Public Opinion Research poll finds Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election, with the result within the poll’s margin of error. The survey also shows Paxton failing to win over vo
Texas voters heard the Republican runoff results just days ago, but the new question wasn’t who won the party fight—it was whether it would hold in November.
A poll conducted May 27 to May 28 by Texas Public Opinion Research found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico pulling ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election. The race sits within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. tightening the contest at the exact moment both campaigns are trying to consolidate their bases for the general election.
Talarico is aiming to become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Sen. Bob Krueger in 1993, while Paxton is trying to keep Republican control of the position after winning the GOP Senate runoff. The shift from the party contest to a broader electorate is central to what the poll suggests—and where the risk for Paxton may be growing.
The survey found Talarico leading Paxton within the margin of error, with support buoyed by 72% of moderates and 64% of independents. It also offered a pointed detail about fallout from the runoff: Paxton did not gain prospective voters who had voted for Cornyn in the Republican runoff.
Among those voters, 30% said they would vote for Talarico, while 44% said they would vote for Paxton. The remainder—23%—described themselves as undecided or said they would not vote.
That split matters because it implies the Republican runoff did not simply funnel Cornyn voters into Paxton’s lane. The poll’s numbers also sketch a motivation story inside the GOP runoff supporters who say they plan to support Talarico: 51% cited Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason.
Paxton’s legal and political history is part of that calculus. He was indicted on three felony counts of securities fraud in 2015, and the case was dismissed in March 2024. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023, later acquitted by the Texas Senate that same year.
Yet the poll also shows that the support for Talarico among those looking across party lines isn’t only about a positive pull. Only 10% gave a positive reason for supporting Talarico. while another 10% described themselves as reluctant voters—supporting him because they see no acceptable alternative. An additional 7% cited Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump, and 5% said they were expressing broader disillusionment with the Republican Party.
The balance of favorability is another stress point for Paxton. The poll found 38% of Texans view Paxton favorably. It also described him as the second most unpopular major political figure tested after John Cornyn. Trump’s standing is relatively higher: 48% of Texans approve of the president.
Talarico, in comparison, is viewed favorably by 47% of Texans.
For Texas voters, the pressure point may not start with personalities at all—it starts with household budgets. The poll found affordability and the cost of living are Texans’ top concern, with 23% naming it their priority. That figure is more than double any other issue category in the survey.
After affordability, Texans ranked democracy and voting rights at 11%, immigration at 10%, health care and access at 9%, and economic growth and job creation at 7%.
What ties the results together is the combination of narrow margins and uneven loyalty. Talarico’s lead is slim enough to be overtaken, but the failure to capture Cornyn voters and the intensity of concerns tied to Paxton’s past create a runway for Democrats to keep the general-election race alive.
In November. the party stakes will still matter—Paxton is seeking to maintain Republican control. while Talarico is seeking a historic Democratic win. But the poll suggests voters are not just choosing sides in Texas politics. They are weighing credibility, costs at home, and whether the runoff battle truly translated into broader confidence across the state.
Texas Senate poll James Talarico Ken Paxton John Cornyn Texas Public Opinion Research 2024 election affordability cost of living Trump approval margin of error