Swing voters fault Trump, but won’t switch parties

North Carolina swing voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 say they’re frustrated with President Trump and worried about the economy, but they’re not ready to turn to Democrats. In online focus groups conducted for the Swing Voter Project, many

For many voters who switched from Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024, the frustration is real. But so is the loyalty.

On Tuesday. online focus groups in North Carolina—conducted by messaging and market research firms Engagious and Sago as part of the Swing Voter Project—put 12 voters into the same room to talk through what they’ve felt over the past year and what they plan to do as the midterms draw closer. NPR reported the setup: seven of the participants identified as independents. four said they were Republicans. and one identified as a Democrat. Their political path is the key detail. These are voters who were willing to leave one party for another and. at least for now. aren’t willing to make another switch.

Half of the group is feeling the strain of the economy—and they blame Trump for not understanding it.

In the discussions. eight of 12 voters said Trump is “out of touch with their economic concerns.” Nine said they’re more economically anxious now than they were before Trump took office last year. Those numbers are not presented as a scientific finding—focus groups aren’t designed to be statistically representative—but the pattern is familiar enough to show up in what people chose to emphasize.

One participant. April M. said she doesn’t think Trump “really understands the American people. what we are going through. what we’re suffering with. ” pointing to high gas prices. Another moment seemed to sharpen that sense of mismatch. When participants were shown a recent comment Trump made to reporters about Iran—“The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran. they can’t have a nuclear weapon. ” and “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon”—the reaction wasn’t about whether the nuclear threat matters. It was about what gets left out.

Leslie B. said, “I’m glad he’s concerned about the nuclear weapon,” but asked: “but what about people needing to put food on the table and get to their jobs?”

And yet, even among voters who disapprove of the job Trump is doing, the story they tell about him isn’t just about policy. It’s about character and power.

Nine of the 12 participants said Trump is “strong” when asked whether they see him as strong or weak. None said weak. Rich Thau. president of Engagious and the moderator of the groups. said that many voters are drawing support from Trump’s broader performance—particularly on immigration—rather than from every incident that has landed him in controversy.

Several participants referenced what they see as delivery on campaign promises, including securing the border. Thau said they focus on immigration as a larger picture instead of the specific flashpoints. But the strongest through-line was something more personal than any single policy: voters described Trump as someone who follows through.

Vikki B. put it simply: “If he says he’s going to do something, he does it, period. Whether you like it or not, he does it. That’s why I feel like he’s a strong president.” Thau said he thinks that image of strength—“even when it is chaotic”—is part of why people are still sticking with him.

“[T]hey never, ever, ever tries to display weakness,” Thau said.

If Trump’s perceived strength helps hold these voters in place, Democratic politics may be helping push them away.

Despite the economy frustration, no voters in the focus groups said they were planning to vote specifically for Democrats in the upcoming election as a direct response to Trump.

Barrette G., who said he disapproves of Trump’s job performance, described that idea as a mistake. He called a “protest” vote “a wasted vote.” Instead. he said he wants to judge candidates as individuals: “You have to look at the individual candidate and what do you think they’re going to do. What are they bringing to the table?. Whose interest do you feel like they’re going to represent?”.

He said Democrats won’t be the answer, at least not for him. “Right now. I feel like the Democrats as a party. I feel like they’ve strayed from the roots of America. ” he said. “I think they’re serving the fringes too much,” he added. But his critique didn’t stop at ideology. He also described theatrics and said neither party seems to be focused on the middle class.

“At the end of the day, I don’t think either party is serving the middle class anymore,” he said.

Several others echoed a view that the Democratic Party is fractured. April M. said the party needs to “come together,” arguing “everybody is going their own way.” She said they don’t know what to do and are too divided to build strength strong enough to challenge Republicans.

Vivian T. said the same thing in different words: “I believe they need to show a united front.”

By the end of the conversations, the politics might still feel unresolved. But one policy area was clear: artificial intelligence.

For all the differences in how these voters feel about Trump and the parties, the groups were aligned on AI. They acknowledged some possible benefits, but most expressed fears—especially about the effect on jobs and on how students learn.

Steve M. said his biggest concerns include “the displacement of large sectors of jobs,” as well as how AI is affecting students. He described AI as a tool that. in his view. teaches young people not to develop original thinking or critical skills: “It’s teaching an entire generation that they don’t need to have original thoughts. think critically. because AI is going to do it for you.”.

Steve said he would ideally like the technology “shut down,” but said he doesn’t expect that to happen. Instead, he said he’d like to see global leaders work together to regulate AI, and he found agreement among the other voters.

Thau told NPR that many voters see concerns around AI alongside “a sense of a lack of agency.” He said they feel “there’s not much that they can do about it themselves. ” which is why they are hoping political leaders step in. “They think this is the only way that we’ll get anything meaningful done on AI. ” Thau said. adding that voters are “profoundly concerned.”.

In North Carolina, the decision facing swing voters may not be between Trump and Democrats in the abstract. It may be something more complicated: they want the economy to feel less painful. they worry that AI will reshape work and education in ways they can’t control. and they’re watching who looks decisive and who looks divided.

For now, the focus groups’ message is blunt. Even when they’re unhappy, many of these voters aren’t ready to abandon the party they backed last time. They’re still looking for a way forward—one they believe will come, at least in part, from government action, not from switching teams.

United States politics North Carolina swing voters Trump Democrats midterms artificial intelligence Engagious Sago Swing Voter Project