Strait of Hormuz effectively shut as Trump presses allies
The Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s biggest oil shipping chokepoints—has been dramatically curtailed since the Iran war began. The result is the kind of pressure energy markets usually hate: fewer tankers moving, higher prices, and no clear path back to normal.
Commercial traffic has slowed to a virtual standstill, economists say, and crude prices that hovered below $70 per barrel in the days before the start of military operations on Feb. 28 have soared above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. Misryoum newsroom reporting and analysis points to a rough mix of escalating conflict in the region, including Israeli attacks on Iranian fuel depots, alongside continued disruption of Hormuz and announcements of producer shut-ins.
“The combination of an escalating conflict (including Israeli attacks on Iranian fuel depots), the ongoing disruption of Hormuz and announcements of producer shut-ins indicates the crisis is unlikely to be resolved any time soon,” energy analysts with Eurasia Group said in a report earlier this month. And that uncertainty is sticking to the markets—like smoke that doesn’t fully clear from a late-afternoon sky.
So what is this waterway everyone keeps referencing? Located on Iran’s southern border, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It’s long been a crucial commercial trade route, enabling the flow of about 20% of global oil—roughly 15 million barrels of crude per day—along with liquefied natural gas shipments. It’s also described by experts as a strategic “choke-point” for crude, meaning if you choke it, the ripple effects travel fast.
The geography doesn’t look that intimidating on a map—about 100 miles long, and roughly 21 miles wide at its narrowest point—but it’s where the world’s largest vessels move energy. Most of that crude comes from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran, and the passage allows oil and gas to reach places like China, Europe, and the U.S.
What’s happening now is that the Iran war has pushed the passage toward “de facto” closure. Misryoum newsroom reported that the passage is so dangerous that tankers and other commercial ships basically aren’t going through. “It is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through,” Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in remarks carried by CBS News. “You can be attacked, and you can’t get insurance or it is extremely expensive, so you have to wait until the security situation is better.”
Rasmussen added that while there is no physical blockade, threats from the Iranians—along with drone and missile attacks—mean tankers are not going through the strait. That matters for everyday Americans in a way that can feel abstract until the numbers show up: energy costs, including U.S. gas prices, have been under pressure.
As of March 21, Brent crude—the international benchmark—has hovered near the high levels seen since hostilities began. It soared to roughly $120 a barrel and was $108.84 that day. Benchmark U.S. crude was at $95.61 per barrel. The national average gas price as of March 20 jumped to $3.92 per gallon, up 29 cents from a week ago and nearly $1 a gallon from Feb. 20, according to AAA.
GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said that “until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist.” He also pointed to seasonal forces intensifying as regions complete the transition to summer gasoline—creating what he called a double headwind that could keep pump prices higher in the weeks ahead.
For now, prices are short of record highs. That mark came in July 2008, when both Brent and West Texas Intermediate reached around $145 per barrel—about $215 per barrel in inflation-adjusted terms, according to FactSet data. Longer term, some experts warn that Iran could struggle to indefinitely throttle ship traffic once the U.S. and Israel degrade Iran’s navy and other military capabilities. Blocking exports would also badly damage the fragile economy, they note.
President Trump has been pushing, publicly, for action by allies. On March 21, he slammed NATO member countries as “cowards” for not sending troops to help open the conduit in a social media post. In earlier remarks, he urged other nations that depend on oil exported through the passage to “come and help us with the Strait,” and he said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other administration officials would announce which countries would assist.
Six major U.S. allies voiced “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through” the Strait of Hormuz in a joint statement on March 19—though leaders of the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan provided no specifics. Some have indicated they would be willing to take part in an international mission to secure shipping through the strait once hostilities end.
Trump also suggested the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation would provide insurance to all ships passing through the Persian Gulf, and that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary. On March 16, he said the U.S. has the strait in “very good shape,” but—again—he pressed others to help.
There are alternatives. Oil could move via pipelines such as the East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, a nearly 750-mile-long line in Saudi Arabia that delivers oil to ports on the Red Sea. Another option is the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, roughly 400 miles in the United Arab Emirates that transports oil to a facility on the Gulf of Oman.
But alternative routes can only handle a fraction of the volume typically moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Misryoum editorial analysis echoed what Capital Economics economist David Oxley said in a note to investors: the impact on energy flows depends on how long the strait remains closed and how much damage constrains energy exports even after shipping resumes.
The big question for now is how quickly security improves—and whether allies follow through on the push to escort ships. Until then, the market keeps treating the waterway like it’s locked from the outside, and U.S. drivers get reminded at the pump. And maybe, just maybe, that’s the part leaders can’t afford to ignore.
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