SpaceX shares – SpaceX began its first full day of trading on Monday with shares up 6% after last week’s record-setting Nasdaq debut. The IPO priced at $135 and closed at $161, valuing the company above $2 trillion, even as analysts questioned whether the valuation matches am
By the time the first full trading day began on Monday, the celebration around SpaceX had already started to fade into the numbers.
Shares rose 6% after the company’s record-breaking debut last week on the Nasdaq—the biggest initial public offering in history. On Friday, SpaceX jumped 19% and closed at $161, after being priced at $135 per share. That move pushed its market capitalization above $2 trillion.
Inside the momentum, Elon Musk tried to put a long-term target on the board. On X on Sunday, he said the company “might be able to reach approximately” $1 trillion in revenue in 2030. In a follow-up post, he added: “And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031.”
SpaceX itself reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. The company runs the Starlink satellite internet service and operates a fleet of reusable rockets. It also merged with Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI in February.
But the questions that have swirled since the IPO surfaced fast, and they weren’t about dreams—they were about timing, costs, and whether scale shows up as cash.
One of the sharpest early critiques came from CFRA. which initiated coverage on Friday with a “sell” rating and a 12-month price target of $115—nearly 29% below Friday’s closing price. CFRA said its view was driven by “the company’s extremely ambitious growth strategy. elevated valuation expectations. and significant capital intensity.”.
Those capital demands are already visible. SpaceX’s capital expenditures in the three months ended March totaled $10.1 billion, compared with $4.1 billion in the same period last year. CFRA pointed to the direction of that spending, with the majority going toward artificial intelligence.
Even before trading fully settled into the day-to-day rhythm, another valuation argument arrived. A Morningstar analyst, Nicolas Owens, released a note on June 8 saying the firm values SpaceX at $63 per share, describing the stock as “overvalued.”
The debate isn’t just about numbers—it’s about what’s promised. Paulina Roszkowska, lecturer in finance at Bayes Business School, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” that SpaceX has made “a lot of promises,” but that at some point those promises have to turn into cash flow.
She pointed to what she called high-stakes language about “data centers in the orbit.” “Aside [from] those phrases about data centers in the orbit. which are high promises. if you are asking for 70. 80 billion contribution. I think that you owe investors a little bit more than poetry. ” Roszkowska said.
Her concern went beyond optimism. She said the IPO prospectus lacks details on governance or execution risks, adding: “So I am wondering what are these promises based on.”
Still, not everyone sees a valuation that needs to be marked down immediately. NewStreet Research initiated coverage with a $165 price target. James Ratzer. partner and senior analyst at NewStreet Research. told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that the key is whether investors are willing to look far enough into the future.
“Can you look [at] this business, let’s say, over a longer time frame than you would over most equities to justify to get to the current valuation? We think you can,” Ratzer said.
He argued it requires looking over a “20 to 25-year time frame,” calling it a “much longer-dated equity story than most.”
Ratzer also framed SpaceX’s rocket business as the foundation for everything else. He said SpaceX has “at least a 10-year lead” over competitors in rocket launch capabilities. “When you look at SpaceX and driving what’s needed to succeed on Starlink on direct-to-cell … orbital data centres. everything has to hinge back to success on launch. ” Ratzer said. pointing to Starship as the building block. “When you look at what they’re building with Starship. the advantage they will have with that. the mass they can put into orbit is a huge advantage. ” he added.
Starship is SpaceX’s latest generation launch vehicle. Ratzer connected that to the company’s plans for “orbital data centers,” which he described as SpaceX’s efforts to build data centers in space for AI.
He also gave a timeline for Starlink’s dominance in launch capacity, saying he expects Musk to still control about 90 to 95% of all launch capacity “going on in space” in just over the next four to five years.
Between the record debut and the clashing price targets, Monday’s early trading felt less like the start of a victory lap and more like the first test of what the market thinks SpaceX can deliver—on schedule, with cash, not just with ambition.
Where the story stands now is clear: the IPO already priced the company at an eye-watering valuation. but analysts are still drawing different lines between growth projections and the path to cash flow. And as trading continues, that gap—between promise and proof—will remain the loudest part of the conversation.
SpaceX Nasdaq debut IPO Starlink Starship Gwynne Shotwell Elon Musk valuation CFRA sell rating Morningstar overvalued NewStreet Research price target