Souza vs. Carnelossi odds: Souza favored for grind

Souza vs. – With Souza listed at -300 and Carnelossi at +225, the 115-pound matchup looks like a clash of pressure versus power—Souza’s clinch-and-grind style tested by a shorter, heavily built striker who doesn’t always stay in control once things hit the mat.

At 115 pounds, this fight doesn’t promise finesse. It promises contact.

In the UFC Vegas 118 prelims. Souza takes on Carnelossi in a bout framed by one simple betting split: Souza is a heavy favorite at -300. while Carnelossi sits at +225. The matchup features two fighters described in the same breath—stockier. burlier women in a division where taller. longer fighters often try to keep range. Here, Souza’s path runs straight through it.

Souza enters the cage with a record of 16-6 and a 3-3 UFC mark. Her game is built around physicality: she works inside boxing. bounces into range. and unloads with hooks where her power is plain to see. Even when a knockout doesn’t come right away, she has shown she can smother the problem of distance. In her last outing against Bruna Brasil. Souza used a mix of wrestling and relentless clinch grinding to frustrate a taller opponent and ultimately defeat her.

She’s not presented as a “technical wrestler,” but athleticism and strength matter once the fight becomes collision-heavy. Souza’s clinches and ground sequences follow that theme—collisions that pull opponents into exchanges where she can bring the fight to the ground and serve up punches. She can also take the back, especially when the opponent is already compromised, and finish quickly when opportunities appear. That was the case against Yazmin Jauregui at Noche UFC last September.

Still, Souza’s ceiling has shown limits against women who can match her physical pressure—or at least stay unbothered by it. Those challenges show up in her consecutive losses to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill, described as miserable fights.

Carnelossi, meanwhile, leans on physical gifts even more than Souza. She is one of the shortest women in the strawweight division and one of the most impressively muscular competitors in any division. and “Sorriso” is built around a direct approach on the feet. She kicks from the outside, slides into range, and unloads big hooks with both hands. Her punches aren’t described as especially fast. but her strength and the way she swings hard at everything give those shots real weight.

On the ground, Carnelossi’s ability is described as not especially technical, but sometimes effective. She has completed (and prevented) takedowns she “should not have been able to. ” with a low center of gravity and enormous strength doing much of the work. But control is where the picture changes: she isn’t very good at keeping opponents down. Scrambles often swing the wrong way for her. and in her most recent outing against Talita Alencar. she was badly outgrappled by Alencar’s niftier jiu-jitsu.

The betting line reflects all of that. The preview frames this fight as something that, in a different moment, would have been closer. But Souza is said to be fighting as well as she ever has, while Carnelossi appears to be in decline at 33.

The pick is Souza by decision—painted as a grueling, sometimes ugly fight where she wins all three rounds. If you can find a prop bet for “number of clinches broken up by the referee,” the instruction is blunt: hammer the over.

UFC Vegas 118 Souza vs Carnelossi betting odds 115-pound division Souza Carnelossi clinch decision prelims preview