Houston’s season is slipping—28-25 and near the bottom in the AL West—but opposing executives expect the Astros won’t put Yordan Alvarez on the market before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
The Astros aren’t just losing ground in the AL West standings. They’ve stopped looking like the team that can turn a season around on instinct.
Houston sits at 28-25 and is in fourth place in its own division. The bigger jolt for fans is the direction the organization has taken since winning the World Series in 2022: the Astros’ win total has declined every season since, even though they finished over .500 in each year before 2026.
This season is on pace to be their worst since 2014, when they finished 70-92. The math matches the feeling. In the AL, Houston has the fourth-worst run differential at minus-35, ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels.
And while the standings are grim, the pipeline is even harder to fix from within. Houston’s farm system is described as the worst in the league, and MLB.com noted that, coming into the season, the Astros didn’t have a top-100 prospect.
That’s exactly why Yordan Alvarez has become the conversation piece for anyone scanning Houston’s roster for a tradeable future. Alvarez is the one major piece the Astros could potentially dangle to bring back a return that could change a franchise’s next few years.
But the immediate buzz around him doesn’t point toward a major blowup before the deadline. Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the feeling among opposing executives is that Houston won’t shop Alvarez prior to the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Part of that is simple contract reality. Alvarez is under contract for two years beyond this season, and the Astros are owed a total of $53.6 million.
Still, the biggest reason he’s hard to move isn’t financial—it’s performance. Alvarez is the clearest bright spot in a season that has been sliding. The 28-year-old is having an MVP-caliber year with a .316/.426/.649 slash line and 21 homers in 62 games.
He leads the AL in batting average and homers, and his .649 slugging percentage leads all of MLB. That kind of offensive impact is the difference between a team “watching the season end” and a team genuinely chasing October.
It’s also the reason you can feel the tension between two stories playing out at the same time in Houston. One story says the Astros’ trajectory has tilted the wrong way—win totals down each year since 2022. a season on pace for their worst since 2014. and a run differential that lands them fourth-worst in the AL. The other says Alvarez is the rare player who could immediately raise another contending club’s ceiling.
For now, the Astros don’t appear inclined to wave the white flag by making Alvarez available. But there are still two months before the deadline—and if things spiral further out of control, that calculus can change fast.
Houston Astros Yordan Alvarez MLB trade rumors Aug. 3 trade deadline AL West standings run differential farm system
So they’re just gonna keep Alvarez? Cool cool
I don’t get it, they’re 28-25 and already “bottom”?? Seems like clickbait. If they really wanted to change things they’d trade him before Aug 3. Maybe it’s all just “contract reality” like the article says but idk.
Alvarez MVP caliber and they won’t shop him… okay but what’s the point of “worst farm system” if they’re not pulling a move? Next thing you know they wait past the deadline and lose him anyway for nothing. Also minus-35 run differential sounds made up lol.
This feels like the Astros just don’t want to admit they’re not good anymore. Like “we won’t trade him before Aug 3” but they also said their worst season since 2014, so which is it? If Alvarez is the only bright spot then why not build around him instead of doing whatever this is. And 53.6 million owed… that’s why, right? Sure, money. I swear every year after 2022 they’re “declining” like clockwork.