Rubio catches – A new Emerson College Polling survey shows Marco Rubio surging and JD Vance slipping in the 2028 Republican presidential primary race, tightening what looked like a clear lead and setting up a more unpredictable fight to replace Donald Trump as the next GOP no
Rubio’s name is starting to show up in the lead—just as Vance’s grip appears to be loosening.
In a new Emerson College Polling national survey released May 28. Vice President JD Vance remains the top choice among Republican voters in the 2028 primary. but his advantage has shrunk dramatically. Vance is supported by 36% of respondents. and he is now statistically tied with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. who leads with 35% in the same poll.
The shift is stark over the survey’s comparison to a February Emerson poll of the same potential Republican field. Rubio’s support as the top choice climbed 15 percentage points, while Vance’s top-choice support fell by 16 percentage points over the same period.
For other potential 2028 contenders, the race looks more distant. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley each hold 5% as the top choice of Republican voters. Fifteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, sampled 432 likely Republican primary voters nationally. The fieldwork was taken May 24 and May 25.
Neither Vance nor Rubio has formally announced intentions to run for president. Rubio’s rise comes as he has taken on a significantly higher profile in the Trump administration amid President Donald Trump’s military engagements in Venezuela and in Iran. Over the same period. Vance has made several speeches and traveled outside Washington to tout the administration’s efforts to tackle fraud in federal social programs.
The timing of the political sprint matters, especially because Trump has not picked a clear successor. The president has talked up both Rubio and Vance as possible heirs apparent to lead the MAGA movement. declining so far to choose one over the other. Trump is term-limited from running again, and he has openly toyed with running for an unconstitutional third term in 2028.
At a May 11 dinner he hosted at the White House Rose Garden for law enforcement, Trump polled the audience on who should be atop the 2028 Republican ticket. “We got a lot of beauties out there,” Trump said. “I don’t know, who’s it going to be? Is it going to be JD? Is it going to be somebody else?”
A separate Emerson poll of likely Democratic voters found a different dynamic—an open race where former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg tops contenders with 18%. He is followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 16%; New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%; Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 10%; former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10%; and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%.
That Democratic poll, also an Emerson survey with a sample of 432 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken during the same time frame and also has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
While the party’s nomination drama plays out, the Emerson survey also found that Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 39%, with 55% of Americans disapproving of his job performance as president.
The race for 2028 among Republicans may still be forming, but the new numbers show the ground moving fast—Rubio catching up as Vance’s lead shrinks into something much closer to a dead heat.
Marco Rubio JD Vance 2028 Republican primary Emerson College Polling likely voters Donald Trump MAGA successor Ron DeSantis Nikki Haley Pete Buttigieg campaign polling