Retirees face $109,000 average shortfall in 41 states

A new CareScout analysis finds the average 65-year-old faces a $109,000 retirement shortfall, with seniors in 41 states most at risk of outliving their savings—especially where costs are high. Only nine states show projected retirement surpluses, putting the o

For many Americans, retirement isn’t a finish line—it’s a long stretch where the biggest fear isn’t illness or death. It’s the math: outliving what’s in the bank.

A new report from CareScout, the long-term care network, places that fear in hard numbers. The average American at age 65 faces a retirement shortfall of $109. 000. the difference between what they can expect to bring in from Social Security. savings. and other sources. and what they can expect to spend on daily life expenses. Social Security benefits don’t run out, the report stresses, but savings can.

The risk is spread across the country. CareScout’s analysis finds retirees are likely to outlive their savings in 41 states, with the likelihood rising in places where living costs are notably high—an issue that hits households long after their working years end.

At the heart of the report is a simple reality: people are living longer. which means retirement can last longer. and retirement costs are rising. Using state-level estimates of life expectancy at age 65—ranging from 16 to 20 years. more or less depending on the state—the report also factors in average retirement benefits. median net worth. and expected retirement expenses.

That long timeline is a big reason why retirees are more likely to run short in states known for expensive living. CareScout points to New York, California, Alaska, and Massachusetts as examples where seniors are most exposed.

New York is projected to be particularly challenging. The average senior can expect about $712,000 in income during retirement and roughly $1.18 million in expenses. That gap translates into a projected shortfall of $471,000.

The District of Columbia follows a similar pattern: expenses averaging $1.22 million and retirement income averaging $790,000, with a projected shortfall of $432,000.

California’s figures are just as stark. Seniors can expect $943,000 in income and $1.34 million in expenses during retirement, leaving a projected shortfall of $395,000.

Alaska, where incomes and costs both tilt high, shows a projected shortfall of $350,000, with income averaging $769,000 and expenses averaging $1.12 million.

In New Mexico, the projected shortfall is $277,000, with income expected to average $555,000 and expenses $832,000. Louisiana is projected to see a $241,000 shortfall, based on retirement income averaging $531,000 against retirement expenses averaging $772,000.

Arkansas rounds out the next set of large gaps, with retirees facing a projected shortfall of $237,000. CareScout estimates expenses of $727,000 and income of $490,000.

Vermont’s numbers reflect a different mix of income and outflow, with income of $819,000 and expenses of $1.05 million in retirement, for a projected shortfall of $232,000. Kentucky’s projected shortfall is $209,000, built from retirement expenses of $730,000 and income averaging $521,000.

Rhode Island lands at a projected shortfall of $200,000, with income averaging $819,000 and expenses averaging $1.02 million.

Taken together, the report’s message is consistent: when retirement lasts long enough and costs don’t slow down, the difference between income and expenses can become a deciding factor on whether savings hold.

CareScout CEO Samir Shah frames the report as a push toward preparation rather than surprise. Research by AARP, the report notes, shows many older Americans don’t work with professional retirement planners.

“Americans are not ready for retirement,” Shah said. “People have not thought about how much money they will need in retirement.”

The report also identifies additional states where retirees risk outliving their savings: Massachusetts. Arizona. Mississippi. Oklahoma. Alabama. South Carolina. Nevada. Missouri. West Virginia. Ohio. Oregon. North Carolina. Texas. Connecticut. Wisconsin. Delaware. Indiana. Georgia. Hawaii. South Dakota. Kansas. North Dakota. Michigan. Virginia. Maine. Wyoming. Iowa. Pennsylvania. Tennessee. Florida. Illinois and New Jersey.

Only nine states show a different outcome—projected financial surplus during retirement. CareScout finds those surpluses are driven by some combination of lower expenses and higher income.

Washington tops the list with retirees expected to see average income of $1.3 million and expenses of $1.02 million in retirement, leaving a projected surplus of $276,000. New Hampshire follows with retirement income of $1.24 million and expenses of $1 million, for a projected surplus of $240,000.

Colorado’s retirees are projected to have a surplus of $188,000, with income averaging $1.14 million and expenses averaging $949,000. Nebraska shows a projected surplus of $145,000, with income of $969,000 and expenses of $824,000.

Idaho’s projected surplus is $112,000, based on retirement expenses averaging $896,000 and retirement income averaging $1 million. Minnesota’s projected surplus is $109,000, with expenses averaging $871,000 and income averaging $980,000.

Utah is next with a projected surplus of $79,000, with income expected to average $976,000 and expenses averaging $897,000. Maryland’s projected surplus is $21,000, with income of $1.08 million and expenses of $1.06 million in retirement. Montana closes the group with a projected surplus of $19,000, based on expenses averaging $878,000 and income averaging $897,000.

The sequence in the numbers tells a clear story: long retirements supported by Social Security help. but the report’s calculations show savings and spending still determine whether retirees run out. States with higher costs concentrate the risk. while the few surplus states show that outcomes can flip when income and expenses move in the right direction.

CareScout’s suggestions focus on narrowing that gap before retirement begins. The report urges Americans not to underestimate how long they will live. noting that American life expectancy is about 79 years. while life expectancy at age 70 for a woman can extend to 87. It emphasizes that many older Americans don’t know how long their own retirement is likely to last—what it calls longevity literacy.

It also recommends maximizing retirement savings by making aggressive contributions to a workplace retirement account. The report describes the most successful retirement savers as those who start early. contribute at least 10% of their income to a 401(k)-type account. and save continuously until they retire. It advises people not to raid retirement savings for household expenses and instead open an emergency savings account.

Finally, the report points to Social Security timing. It says the longer a person waits to claim Social Security. the larger monthly benefits become. and that based on its longevity figures. people are generally better off claiming later in life if they can afford to wait—ideally until age 70. when monthly benefits max out.

The central point isn’t that retirement planning is complicated. It’s that planning is late—until the gap in the report becomes personal.

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