A rise in Democratic socialists’ support among Democrats—paired with favorable polling versus congressional Democrats—has Democrats bracing for next week’s New York primaries, where several house races could decide who advances.
For Democrats who built their identity around moving the party toward the mainstream, next week’s New York primaries are the first real test of a new political gravity.
Harry Enten. a senior data correspondent. framed it bluntly: the “stunning” trend he’s seen over 15 or 16 years is the rise of democratic socialists inside the Democratic Party. In his view. their momentum is no longer limited to a few high-profile pockets—he pointed to New York. Vermont. the D.C. mayor, and also Pennsylvania.
The question in the room wasn’t whether democratic socialists are present. It was how they’re viewed—by Democrats themselves. Enten said the key is favorability. He described a plus-17-point net favorability rating among Democrats for the Democratic Socialists of America. He contrasted that with congressional Democrats, which he said score at plus four points.
Enten’s takeaway from that gap was straightforward: democratic socialists are a “better brand” with Democrats than congressional Democrats are at this moment. That’s the political setup for what comes next. because he argued those brand advantages translate into real electoral danger—especially for Democratic incumbents in Congress.
John Berman followed with a question that has become a recurring measuring stick in modern campaigns: how Democrats feel when socialism is placed next to capitalism. Enten said the numbers have shifted sharply. He pointed to a baseline from 2010 where socialism and capitalism were “about equal. ” with 50% having a favorable view of socialism and 51% saying the same about capitalism.
Now, Enten said, the comparison has reversed. He reported that only 42% of Democrats have a favorable view of capitalism, while socialism has surged—two in three Democrats, he said, have a favorable view of socialism.
That kind of shift doesn’t just change messaging. It changes who parties see as viable nominees.
Berman then turned to the immediate calendar. asking what prediction markets are saying about how democratic socialists might do in the primaries next week. Enten said he expects the momentum to carry forward rather than stop abruptly. He described a set of house primaries in New York as the next real battleground.
In New York’s 7th district, Enten said a Brooklyn borough president appears to be an underdog compared to a democratic socialist. He also described a race in northern Manhattan as closer to a 50-50 contest, with a Democratic incumbent facing a serious chance of being knocked off.
Enten’s bottom line was that next week in New York could be “a very good one for Democratic Socialists.” He tied that potential outcome to political backing and momentum inside the city. saying Mayor Mamdani is endorsing them and that his “political star is rising.” He added that Mamdani may bring “a few Democratic Socialists” along with him and help put them in Congress.
The stakes aren’t being described as theoretical. They’re being mapped onto specific districts and specific timing—because if the favorability story Enten laid out holds. the primaries won’t just test candidates. They’ll decide whether a party shift that’s been visible in polling becomes an outcome on ballots.
Democratic socialists Democratic Socialists of America Harry Enten John Berman New York primaries Democratic incumbents New York 7th district northern Manhattan Mamdani favorability ratings socialism capitalism poll