As the fall festivals announce their lineups, the heat is on as Oscar nomination watchers predict multiple categories, often sight unseen. They look at pedigree, track record, prior awards recognition, and festival positioning. I prefer to see the movies before I make pronouncements.
This year, they’re fussing over a gaggle of potential double awards contenders. The internet has gone wild with the idea that heart-throb Robert Pattinson, with four high-profile movies released in 2026, could be nominated for four Oscars, given the new rule change allowing two nominations per acting category.
Here’s why that’s unlikely to happen, and a ranking of the thespians most likely to land more than one Oscar nod.
Sandra Hüller
Shots: The German star has two shots for Best Actress. In February, she accepted the Best Actress prize in Berlin for “Rose” (Mubi), about a woman who impersonates a soldier and continues to hide her gender after the war. (“Rose” will compete for Best International Feature for Austria.) The actress also stars in another Mubi release, Cannes director co-winner Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” as Erika, the accomplished daughter of novelist Thomas Mann, who drives her father on a road trip through ruined post-War Germany. In the Supporting category, she could land a nod for her authoritative project leader (and karaoke singer) in “Project Hail Mary.” And she also joins the ensemble in another end-of-the-world scenario in Alejandro González Iñárritu’s yet unseen black comedy “Digger.”
Prior Oscar nods: She earned a Best Actress nomination for Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall.”
Most likely outcome: Best Actress for “Fatherland,” as those who do see “Rose” will favor the higher-profile, established title. (Polish auteur Pawlikowski won Best International Feature for “Ida,” and landed three nominations for “Cold War,” including Best Director.) Supporting Actress for “Project Hail Mary,” a popular smash that most voters have seen. On the other hand, the Best Actress category, unlike Best Actor, is light this year. If anyone can pull off a triple this year, it’s Hüller.
Penélope Cruz
Shots: She is brilliant and hilarious in a supporting role as a shrink who enjoys group sex in Olivia Wilde’s indie four-hander “The Invite” (A24), which could score multiple nominations, including Director and Screenplay. Cruz’s splashy role as a wartime entertainer in likely Spanish entry “La Bola Negra” (Netflix) pops out of the sad Spanish Civil War triptych — but it’s slim. Both A24 and Netflix know how to push a nomination.
Prior Oscar nods: Cruz boasts nominations for two Pedro Almodóvar films (“Volver,” “Parallel Mothers”) and the musical “Nine,” and she won Supporting Actress for Woody Allen’s “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”
Most likely outcome: A Supporting Actress nomination for “The Invite.”
Emily Blunt
Shots: Steven Spielberg’s too-familiar “Disclosure Day” ($241 million worldwide) is receding in the rearview behind Christopher Nolan’s bold Homeric epic “The Odyssey” ($1.3 billion worldwide). But Universal’s Oscar campaign will remind the Actors Branch why Blunt excels in the sci-fi thriller as a Midwest weather woman who is overtaken by aliens. She also returns in a broad supporting role in the popular sequel “The Devil Wears Prada 2” (Disney, $692 million worldwide). The original catapulted the British actress to a Hollywood career, but in the sequel she is overshadowed by Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway.
Prior Oscar nods: Supporting Actress nomination as the forbearing wife of the title character, “Oppenheimer.”
Most likely outcome: Best Actress for “Disclosure Day,” with no nod for “Prada 2,” the lesser performance.
Anne Hathaway
Shots: The protean actress has been working hard, and scored strong reviews for her four 2026 releases so far. A fifth, Michael Showalter thriller “Verity” (Amazon/MGM), is still to come. We can discount David Lowery’s little-seen “Mother Mary” (A24), her repeat role in “Prada 2,” and the genre thriller “The End of Oak Street.” Her highest-profile quality performance is as the wise Penelope in “The Odyssey.” There’s discussion of moving her to Best Actress to give Samantha Morton a better shot in Supporting. Famously, Kate Winslet won Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes and SAG for “The Reader” before Oscar voters voted for her in for Best Actress. She won.
Most likely outcome: A single nomination in whatever category for “The Odyssey.”
Robert Pattinson
Shots: Four. To his credit, Pattinson loves to dig into unappealing characters. He’s the villain, chief suitor Antinous, a coward and an ingrate, in “The Odyssey,” and the feckless boyfriend struggling with his partner’s checkered past in “The Drama.” Many Oscar pundit hopes are pinned on Pattinson’s true-life role as TV host Chris Hanson in “Primetime,” about the twisted morality behind catching pedophiles on TV (revealed in the documentary “Predators“), which premieres in Venice and plays Toronto. Awesome reviews could push the film into contention. He takes on yet another villain in “Dune Part 3,” the Machiavellian Scytale. If Pattinson lands raves for the finale, he could join the fray. So far, Netflix’s “Here Comes the Flood” is holding for 2027, and the third “The Batman” installment is set for February, 2028.
Prior Oscar nods: None.
Most likely outcome: He’s a long shot for three films. It’s possible “The Odyssey” coattails will pull Pattinson into the Supporting Actor mix. At this point, John Leguizamo has the edge as Odysseus’ blind loyal swineherd Eumaeus. If “Primetime” soars out of Venice or he breaks out of the pack in “Dune: Part 3,” then Pattinson could enter the race.
Brad Pitt
Shots: Three. David Ayers’ survival actioner “Heart of the Beast” (Paramount) reunites Pitt with a canine costar. He also stars in two year-end releases, David Fincher’s interpretation of a Quentin Tarantino sequel, “The Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix) and Edward Berger’s psychological thriller “The Riders” (Plan B/A24). None are playing festivals, the usual route for Oscar contenders.
Prior Oscar nods: Pitt has four acting nominations: Supporting Actor for “12 Monkeys,” Lead Actor for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Moneyball,” and he won Supporting Actor as an aging stuntman who tangles with the Manson family in Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”
Most likely outcome: Nothing. In Fincher’s sequel, Pitt would have to outperform himself in the same role he already won for.
Zendaya
Shots: Four. The 29-year-old exploding star is front and center opposite her husband Tom Holland in Marvel/Disney’s box office juggernaut “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” ($2 billion worldwide), plays a small but pivotal role as Athena in “The Odyssey,” and costars with Robert Pattinson as her disaffected fiance in A24’s “The Drama” ($105 million worldwide), which surpassed box office expectations. There’s also the final installment of Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” trilogy (Legendary/Warner Bros.) still to come. If she outperforms herself in Parts One and Two, it could be her time.
Prior Oscar nods: None.
Most likely outcome: Genre films, sequels, and a weird contemporary relationship drama make unlikely Oscar bait. Zendaya is more likely to nab a well-deserved Emmy three-peat for her gritty, emotional role in the final season of “Euphoria” (voting is open). She has time.
Willem Dafoe
Shots: On the supporting side, Dafoe rejoins the Robert Eggers gang in year-end medieval monster jam “Werewulf” (Focus Features) and stars in Jennifer Peedom’s fall festival entry “Tenzing” (Apple Original), as the leader of the historic 1953 Everest expedition. As a leading man, he’s grabbed raves for his poignant role as an aging West Village poet in “Late Fame” (Magnolia).
Prior Oscar nods: Dafoe has four nominations and has never won. He’s due. He is beloved by actors.
Most likely outcome: The Best Actor category is crowded. With a tiny box office performer ($97,000) Dafoe has to squeeze in with Matt Damon, Ryan Gosling, Andrew Scott, Tom Cruise, John Malkovich, John Turturro, and Pedro Pascal. Some will fall away as we rate the fall films; other newbies will join the pack. Magnolia doesn’t always step up to spending heavily for an Oscar campaign. An Independent Spirit nod is in Dafoe’s future.
Jeremy Allen White
Shots: “The Bear” Emmy winner plays a Wall Street Journal investigative reporter in Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning” (Sony) and also stars opposite Austin Butler in Henry Dunham’s cat-and-mouse thriller “Enemies” (A24). Neither is playing festivals. With so much on A24’s plate this season, the undated film could move into 2027.
Prior Oscar nods: None. He earned a Globe nomination as Bruce Springsteen for “Deliver Me from Nowhere” but did not make the Oscar cut.
Most likely outcome: It feels like Jeremy Strong will dominate “The Social Reckoning” as Mark Zuckerberg, but White could blow us away. With critics behind him, he could emerge into contention.