NOAA warns Gulf states: early 2026 storms possible

NOAA warns – With the Gulf Coast seeing little hurricane activity in 2025, NOAA is urging residents to treat 2026 as high risk for fast-developing storms—citing warm Gulf waters, lessons from Hurricane Agnes and Allison, and warnings from senior NOAA forecasters about fals

For people along the Gulf Coast, the calendar can feel deceptively calm. But NOAA’s hurricane forecasters are pointing at the Gulf’s unusually warm setup and a history of catastrophic early-season storms, warning that the quiet of 2025 doesn’t protect the region in 2026.

Just two weeks into the 1972 hurricane season, a tropical depression formed near the Yucatán Peninsula. Four days later. it moved ashore in the Florida Panhandle as a weak Hurricane Agnes—one that has remained. to this day. among the costliest storms ever to strike the U.S. mainland. NOAA is using stories like Agnes. and other early-season disasters. to press home a simple message: devastating storms can arrive early. and they can arrive quickly.

Officials are also tying those warnings to the way many forecasts and storms have played out when the climate pattern known as El Niño is present. In 1972, a strong El Niño was developing when Agnes formed. The same can happen now. While El Niño can have a pacifying effect on Atlantic storm creation. forecasters say hurricanes still form—and they can find the Gulf of America. formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico before being renamed by the Trump administration. even when Atlantic activity is suppressed.

Agnes is often paired with Allison, and NOAA’s own costliest-storms record underscores why. Allison. which was only a tropical storm when it swept ashore in Texas in 2001. sits one spot below Agnes at 23 on the list of the 25 costliest storms on record. based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

As NOAA pushes coastal residents to know their hurricane risk. National Weather Service director Ken Graham stresses that the danger doesn’t stop at the shoreline. The millions who live far inland from landfall still face the threat—both from heavy rain and from storms’ ability to carry moisture deep into the country.

The Gulf’s warmth is the fuel, NOAA says

Two key factors are driving the concern this time: how little hurricane activity occurred near the Gulf Coast in 2025, and the temperatures in the Gulf right now.

Matthew Rosencrans. lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. said El Niño’s biggest impacts tend to fall on Atlantic hurricanes that form deep in the tropics. That can mean fewer storms that take days to march across the Atlantic from Africa. In the Gulf, though, Rosencrans said the picture can look different, with more favorable pockets for storms to form.

With 2025 providing less activity to churn the region, NOAA says the Gulf is an especially welcoming environment for storm development at the moment. Surface water temperatures are close to all-time warm records set at the same time in 2024.

NOAA data shows that on May 24, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf were an average of 2.5 degrees warmer than normal for the date. The average temperature was also just six-tenths of a degree below the record set for the date in 2024.

That warmth matters because storms don’t just form near the coast. Once they are moving, the Gulf’s heat can quickly add moisture and intensity—an issue Graham says often gets lost when people assume they’ll have plenty of time.

“People often suffer from a false sense of lead time,” Graham said. He described a common misunderstanding that big storms will cross the Atlantic slowly enough for communities to prepare step by step. But he said that generally isn’t how it works.

“Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out.”

He added: “They rapidly intensify and get here quickly.” And he emphasized the practical point communities need to hear before the danger is at their doorstep: “That preparedness early is absolutely key.”

Storm danger can reach far inland, fast

NOAA’s warnings are rooted not only in how storms can spin up quickly, but in what they do once they move inland—especially when warm Gulf moisture gets carried north and northeast.

In 2001. Allison brought rain totals up to 30 inches on the east side of Houston and in Schriever and Thibodaux. Louisiana. according to the hurricane center’s post-storm report. The storm claimed 41 lives along the Gulf Coast and flooded more than 70,000 homes. The damages were estimated at $11.82 billion, adjusted for 2024 prices.

Several studies have shown that storms like these may produce even more water under a changing climate. That moisture travels with the storm, and it can reach far inland—often in an arc to the north and northeast.

Graham pointed to the scale of the threat. A storm making landfall a thousand miles away on the Gulf Coast. he said. can still cause enormous impacts. including flash flooding fatalities as far away as Tennessee. Virginia. and the Northeastern U.S. He also referenced Hurricane Camille in 1969. saying it caused nearly as many fatalities in Virginia as in Mississippi. where it came ashore.

Agnes also demonstrated how multiple weather forces can compound disaster. The troubles with Agnes multiplied after the weakened storm moved along the coast. It interacted with another weather system over the mainland. restrengthened. and produced record-setting rain and deadly flooding from Virginia to New England. including 19 inches of rain in Pennsylvania.

A weather service report found Agnes killed more than 120 people and caused an estimated $12.52 billion in damages, adjusted for 2024 prices. Similar patterns played out in 2024. when the remnants of Hurricane Helene left deadly and devastating impacts hundreds of miles inland after arriving on the heels of another weather pattern over the region.

Taken together. NOAA’s message is a direct warning to residents not to measure safety by how quiet the season has been so far. Storm formation in the Gulf can occur at different times of the season during an El Niño year. Rosencrans said. and warm waters can keep the region ready to fuel rapid development.

Graham’s refrain lands with weight because it comes from the kind of aftermath that communities can’t undo. “Early preparedness is absolutely everything. Period. End of story.”

NOAA 2026 hurricane season Gulf Coast El Niño storm surge Hurricane Agnes Hurricane Allison Ken Graham Matthew Rosencrans sea surface temperatures