NOAA summer – A new summer outlook released May 21 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center points to widespread above-average temperatures across much of the U.S., with the highest confidence in the Pacific Northwest. Forecasters also warn the pattern could mean more frequent h
By the time the calendar flips to summer, the threat often isn’t dramatic at first—it’s steady. For many parts of the country, NOAA’s new seasonal forecast suggests that steadiness could turn into something harder to escape.
On May 21, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its June–July–August temperature outlook. showing a broad swath of the country in orange and red—colors that signal above-normal warmth. The map comes with a crucial caveat: it doesn’t predict exact temperatures. Instead, it assigns probabilities for whether temperatures will run above, near, or below average.
The signal is strong across the West and much of the interior. NOAA’s outlook “favors above-normal temperatures throughout the West. much of the Great Plains. Lower Mississippi Valley. and East.” The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures is across the Pacific Northwest. NOAA said.
That doesn’t mean Alaska is untouched. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for a majority of Alaska.
For many Americans. the practical worry is what elevated odds of seasonal warmth can mean day to day—more frequent heat waves and more stretches of temperatures that run higher than normal. “The probabilities are elevated across most of the U.S. meaning higher odds of frequent heat waves and above-average seasonal temperatures. ” the forecast reporting notes.
AccuWeather’s independent forecast lines up with that broad picture for 2026. “A hot summer is predicted across most of the contiguous United States in 2026. with almost no areas expected to have temperatures below the historical average for the season. ” AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said in a recent online forecast.
Where heat could be hardest felt
The West is where the forecast tone sharpens. According to AccuWeather, the worst of the heat should focus across parts of California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. The forecast isn’t just about discomfort—it’s about conditions that can turn dangerous quickly.
AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham warned: “Northwest and Great Basin wildfires can be destructive this summer, along with impressive heat waves and increasing drought conditions.”
NOAA’s map also places the Northwest states of Oregon and Washington in the zone of highest predicted heat, a pattern NOAA says is typical for an El Niño summer.
The Midwest: a blank space with real uncertainty
The heat message doesn’t land the same way everywhere. On NOAA’s map, the Midwest appears mostly white. That color isn’t a weather lull—it’s a specific statistical warning that the signals are weak.
As NOAA explains, “Areas depicted in white and labeled ‘Equal-Chances’ or ‘EC’ are regions where climate signals are weak, and so there are equal chances for either above-, near- or below-normal seasonal temperatures.”
NOAA meteorologist Brad Pugh put it more plainly: “Equal chances of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast for the Midwest, where a more variable temperature pattern is expected this summer.”
But the forecast doesn’t freeze in uncertainty. Later in the summer and into the early fall, NOAA says the outlook “slightly favors below-normal temperatures for parts of the Midwest based on El Niño influences.”
Even where the Midwest isn’t guaranteed to be the hottest, the broader U.S. isn’t guaranteed a break from summer extremes. AccuWeather is also predicting the number of 90-degree days to be near or above the historical average in Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia.
El Niño is already shaping the bigger picture
Behind these seasonal maps is a single driver gaining momentum: El Niño.
AccuWeather’s Lada said El Niño is expected to develop early in the summer and will have a growing influence on the tropics and the broader weather pattern across the United States through the rest of 2026. A developing El Niño should help boost hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific while keeping the Atlantic season below average overall. forecasters announced this week.
NOAA’s forecast reaches farther ahead, too. An early look at next winter shows how the same pattern could carry into colder months.
Given the increasing chance of a strong El Niño by next winter, NOAA increased above-normal temperature probabilities to more than 50% across the northern tier of the contiguous U.S.—from the Pacific Northwest east to the northern Great Plains—during the December 2026 to February 2027 period.
Taken together. the seasonal picture is less about a single hot week and more about a broad tilt toward warmer outcomes—strongest across the Pacific Northwest and extending through parts of the West and interior—while the Midwest sits in a notably uncertain zone. The forecast may not name a specific temperature. but it does map where the odds. and the risks. are stacking up.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center summer forecast 2026 El Niño above-average temperatures heat waves wildfire risk Pacific Northwest Midwest equal chances 90-degree days AccuWeather