NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 1: Welcome back, football!

The NFL is back, baby! And we kick off with an incredible Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. At the same time, we jump into Year 5 of the ClutchPoints’ NFL picks, predictions, and odds column. If you are new, or just to refresh your memory, we do this every week, picking the winners straight up and against the spread all the way through the Super Bowl.

That means we once again find ourselves 285 games from crowning a Super Bowl champion, and each week we will try to combine our knowledge, data, and studying trends to identify which teams will take home the W each week, or at least look good enough in an L to cover the spread.

For the NFL Week 1 slate, we start with a rare Wednesday night tilt, and follow that up with a Thursday nighter from Australia. After that, there are eight early-window Sunday games, four late-window showdowns, a Sunday night slugfest, and a standalone Monday night affair.

Last season, we were 175-110 (61.4%) straight up and 135-144-6 (48.3%). In 2024, we went 177-108 (62.1%) picking winners and 140-140-5 (50%) ATS on the season, and the year prior, we went 184-101 (64.5%) straight-up and 150-124-11 (54.7%) with the points.

So, let’s get right into the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

We all know what happened in February between these two teams, yet a lot has changed in the last seven months. For example, AJ Brown will be involved in this game, while Kenneth Walker III will not. Still, when the Super Bowl combatants face off in the season opener, it historically goes pretty well, again, for the champs.

This game is on the road for a young Patriots team that is probably more talented than last season, but also isn’t going to sneak up on anyone. That means the Seahawks will be ready to once again take down the Pats.

Pick: Seahawks 27-21

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

There is plenty of analysis we could do here about what each of these teams looks like on the field heading into the 2026 NFL season. And that’s exactly what we would have done if this game weren’t in Australia.

It’s honestly wild that the Rams are flying in and flying out like this is a 1 pm game in Las Vegas. The 49ers have been Down Under for a week now, and they should be much better prepared to play this weird game. Plus, they are away from the substation! LA is still better, but this will be a close one.

Pick: Rams 28-27

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans have had the Bills’ number the last two seasons. That was never more apparent than in 2025, when the Houston pass rushers got home on Josh Allen eight times. Buffalo still had a chance to win that game late, though, so if a few things go better for the AFC East squad, that’s a different game.

With a new head coach and defensive coordinator, the Bills should have learned something from last season, and on the other side of the ball, CJ Stroud is 0-6 against the spread in the first two games of the season in his career. Give me the Bills.

Pick: Bills 16-10

Chicago Bears (-3) at Carolina Panthers

The Bears are building quite a winning record against the spread with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. That said, the Panthers and Bryce Young have also done well as home dogs, so history doesn’t help us much here.

This game is the biggest public bet right now, with nearly 70% of bets coming in on the Bears to cover. While that seems like the way this will play out, we know that fading the public is usually not a bad idea, but we’ll split the difference and take Chicago to win but Carolina to cover.

Pick: Bears 21-20

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)

There are plenty of trends and a lot of analysis you can do here to say that the Jaguars are going to win this game and probably cover as well. Cleveland is not good on the road or in the opening week, but none of that really matters.

What matters is that the Browns are an absolute tire fire and are starting Deshaun Watson in Week 1, despite the fact that he is completely washed and has been for years now. The disgraced QB has two games to start before Todd Monken pulls the plug, and you should be able to load up on the Browns’ opponents in those games.

Pick: Jaguars 24-3

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Aaron Rodgers is 3-0 vs. Kevin Stefanski in his career and wins by over seven points a game. Sure, this isn’t prime Rodgers, and the Falcons aren’t quite the Browns, but the away team here is starting Tua Tagovailoa, a QB the Dolphins are paying almost $100 million to go away.

The Falcons have a ton of talent on offense, but quarterback is the most important position in football, and Tua just isn’t the guy. Neither team should be this good or this bad throughout the season, but in Week 1, the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the Steelers by a lot.

Pick: Steelers 17-6

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

Chances are that neither of these teams is very good this year, but the Jets have made more improvements this offseason, and Geno Smith is a much more proven quarterback than Cam Ward.

Almost any outcome of this game wouldn’t be a complete shock, so if Ward comes out and dices up the Jets, we’ll take our L and keep it moving. The more likely outcome, though, is that Gang Green shows a little veteran pride in Week 1 and takes down the young Titans.

Pick: Jets 13-10

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7)

This could be the shootout of the day as two dome teams with what are predicted to be solid to good offenses face off under the roof in Michigan. So, it may be smart to take the over here, but who walks away with the W?

The public is big on the Saints here, worried that a touchdown is too big a number for Jared Goff and company, who struggled at times last year. However, Detroit has made some tweaks after struggling without Ben Johnson, and we think this game may be the showcase for that.

Pick: Lions 35-23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Baker Mayfield is now healthy and getting PAID, but his Buccaneers are still dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, and the squad really struggled to cover at the end of last season.

Conversely, the Bengals are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time, and many may have forgotten what this offense looks like at full strength. It could be a banner year for Joe Burrow, and that starts in Week 1.

Pick: Bengals 28-21

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have dominated the Ravens against the spread over the last two decades (10-2), but there are plenty of numbers that say this game will buck that trend. Lamar Jackson has been excellent on turf and indoors over the course of his career, and the Colts are not good as home dogs or in openers.

This all adds up to Jackson announcing his healthy return with authority, and the Ravens clearing their 3.5-point benchmark by a decent margin.

Pick: Ravens 23-16

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Betting on the Eagles not to cover was a winning strategy last season, and they lost AJ Brown this summer. So, it stands to reason that Week 1 is a great time to make some moolah off this again and pick the Commanders to jump up and surprise Jalen Hurts and company.

Betting against Hurts as a home favorite, though, is usually a losing proposition. His record in that spot (32-7) is second in NFL history to only Peyton Manning. Between this record and the fact that we don’t believe in the Commies at all, let’s go Eagles by at least a tuddy.

Pick: Eagles 23-16

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Matt LaFleur and the Packers have been very good against the spread early in seasons, and Kyler Murray has a very checkered history ATS. That said, Murray is now in a wildly different situation than he was in Arizona, so you may be able to throw at least some of these trends out the window.

For ClutchPoints’ NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’re going a little bit on vibes and projection here. The Vikings may be more competent than last season with a serviceable QB and an improved defense. The Packers, on the other hand, have a banged-up offensive line, a quasi-suspended running back, and an injured best player. Because of all those factors, we’ll take the favorites here.

Pick: Vikings 26-23

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)

Chasing the Dolphins around the NFL schedule will be a popular Survivor Pool strategy this season, although it is tough to bank on Kirk Cousins and the team that had the No. 1 overall pick last season in Week 1.

What makes this game even more nerve-wracking is that the numbers on first-year head coaches as home favorites and against other first-year head coaches are not good. We’ll play the numbers here and take the Dolphins to at least cover, even though that’s not a relaxing pick either.

Pick: Raiders 17-16

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)

This is the biggest spread of the weekend, as one of the best teams in the league faces off against one of the worst. Don’t be afraid of the points here, because Jim Harbaugh is a master of winning in Week 1.

Throughout his career, Harbaugh is 6-0 both straight up and against the spread in the opening game. The NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column believes he’ll move to to 7-0 here, after the Chargers take care of business.

Pick: Chargers 30-13

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

What a way to wrap up Sunday, with one of the historically biggest matchups in the NFL. And, unlike in recent seasons, both these teams may have a real shot to be better than last year. The Cowboys have an improved defense, and the Giants should be much more well-coached this time around. Should be a fun game!

The public is slightly on the Giants, but not enough so to make that the primary reason to take the Cowboys. Dallas is the more proven team, though, and although both teams improved, the Cowboys are a real contender while the Giants are a borderline playoff team.

Pick: Cowboys 27-20

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Yes, the Broncos are playing away from home on Monday night, which is a tough way to open the season, but this line just stinks of the Chiefs being a public team for the better part of the last decade.

Underdogs have done well in recent years in the Monday night opener, and despite the Chiefs making some solid changes this offseason, Patrick Mahomes is still coming off a major knee injury, and that Broncos pass rush is unforgiving.

Pick: Broncos 24-16