In video, Democrat James Talarico campaigns for U.S. Senate in Abilene
Democrat James Talarico brought his New American Dream tour to Abilene as he campaigns to succeed Sen. John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate in November.
- A new poll shows tight races for Texas governor and U.S. Senate ahead of the 2026 midterms.
- Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 48% to 43% in the Senate race, according to the poll.
- The governor’s race is tied, with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa each at 47%.
- The poll indicates an 8-point shift toward Democrats among Texas voters since the 2024 election.
Before Republicans meet in Texas for their first-ever midterm convention, a new poll shows two of the state’s top-ticket races deadlocked hours before it was set to start.
N+ Univision, the news division of TelevisaUnivision, released its Sept. 9 poll that showed Democrat state Rep. James Talarico with a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 48% to 43%, with 7% undecided in the Texas Senate race.
In the state’s governor’s race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are tied at 47% each, with 5% undecided.
This new poll, conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 4 among 1,000 registered voters in Texas, showed a swing in the opposite direction, as the Texas Senate race has been statistically tied up and Abbott has led in the governor’s race by single digits.
It also comes as President Donald Trump tries to shore up Republican support in 35 key races across the nation, including the U.S. Senate race in Texas.
Here’s a deeper dive into the poll for the Texas Senate race and where the race stands.
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race
Because the poll was not a probability sample, it has no traditional margin of error; instead, the equivalent margin of error for a matched, propensity-score sampling design is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The N+ Univision poll showed that since the 2024 election, Texas voters have shifted 8 points more toward Democrats, with 25% saying they have become more supportive of Democrats and 17% saying they have become more supportive of Republicans.
Breaking that down to Hispanic voters, the shift is even larger, sitting at 11 points. The single most-cited reason for changing views was Trump’s actions as president, named by 25% of voters in the poll and 24% of Hispanic voters.
The candidates’ preference ratings tell a similar story, as Talarico is viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 35%. Paxton, by contrast, has a negative rating, with 36% finding him favorable versus 49% unfavorable.
Among Hispanic voters, Talarico’s favorability jumped from 26% to 53%, according to the poll.
What previous Texas Senate polling showed
The N+ Univision poll is the first released in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch toward Election Day, Nov. 3.
However, before this poll, of the publicly released polls conducted in August, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll was the only one showing either candidate leading by more than the poll’s margin of error.
Released Aug. 27, the poll showed Talarico leading Paxton by 6 percentage points, 48% to 42%, a lead outside the poll’s 3.3-percentage-point margin of error. Democratic strategist Luke Warford directs the firm, though Texas Public Opinion Research describes itself as nonpartisan.
Before that, a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll published Aug. 25 found 42% of Texas voters preferred Talarico, while 39% planned to vote for Paxton in the closely watched U.S. Senate race.
Earlier polling painted a similarly tight picture. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll released on Aug. 13 showed the Texas Senate race as a dead heat, with Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%.
A Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll, released Aug. 7, showed Talarico leading 47% to 43%, while a Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll released Aug. 4 showed Talarico ahead 47% to 45%, both within their respective margins of error.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.