Forecasters say New York City and much of the region are heading into the warmest stretch since last July, with heat indices near 100 degrees later in the week and daily record temperatures in striking distance.
When Thursday rolls around, New York’s heat won’t just feel warmer—it may feel dangerous. Forecasters are signaling conditions that could push heat indices into the mid-90s and locally near 100 degrees, as temperatures build again after a brief stretch of mostly dry weather.
New York City is expecting its hottest weather since last July, with temperatures potentially reaching the low 90s. High pressure is expected to keep conditions mostly dry through Tuesday before a pattern shift brings increasing heat, humidity, and storm chances later in the week.
The region’s rise won’t stop after the first spike. The warming trend is expected to continue through the weekend with no significant cooldown in the forecast. By midweek, temperatures could push into the lower 90s, then remain elevated into the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday is where the forecast turns from “hot” to “watch it closely.” Dewpoints are expected to climb into the mid-to-upper 60s. and that humidity could drive heat index values into the mid-90s and locally near 100 degrees—especially in urban and inland locations north and west of New York City. Friday stays hot too, with only a slight dip in temperatures but continued high humidity. Forecasters say the setup could support the first heat wave-like conditions of the season. depending on how long temperatures remain at or above 90 degrees.
There’s also the matter of records. This week could challenge the daily record high of 93 degrees set in 2017. Temperatures across New York are expected to climb steadily through the week. peaking Friday. when New York City could reach over 90 degrees. That places the city within range of the 2017 record. particularly if forecasts trend a little hotter or if peak heating is more efficient than expected. The average temperature high for this date is about 79 degrees.
In the National Weather Service’s outlook for New York City. forecasters pointed to why Thursday could be the warmest day of the week: “Warming trend increases further for Thursday with multiple guidance indicating this to be relatively warmest day of the week.” They added that Thursday’s forecast high temperatures take more of a rise. reaching more into the lower 90s for many locations. with dewpoints rising more into the mid to upper 60s Thursday and Friday. and the potential for heat indices mid 90s to near 100 both days—especially New York City and locations north and west.
A heat wave. NOAA explains. is a period of unusually hot weather that typically lasts two or more days—and the temperatures have to be outside the historical averages for a given area. NOAA notes that two 95-degree summer days in Maine might be considered a heat wave. but two 95-degree summer days in Death Valley would be unremarkable.
For readers tracking how hot it actually feels, the heat index forecast matters as much as the thermometer. The heat index measures how hot it feels when factoring in humidity. and prolonged exposure to a heat index above 80 degrees can lead to fatigue. As it gets hotter, the risk continues to increase, potentially resulting in heat stroke or even death. Older adults, children, and outdoor workers are generally at higher risk of heat-related incidents.
One map forecast looks at risk bands from 80 degrees Fahrenheit—labeled “Caution”—through “Extreme Danger,” which is defined as above 125 degrees. The heat index map identifies where those NWS-defined levels are expected.
By the weekend, humidity is expected to ease slightly, but temperatures will stay elevated. With high pressure and warm air staying anchored over the eastern U.S. no significant cooldown is expected. leaving New Yorkers and the broader region to plan for continued heat through Saturday and Sunday—especially if Thursday and Friday hold near those upper-90s heat index values.
New York City heat wave heat index National Weather Service record high 93 degrees July hottest weather heat safety