Netanyahu’s odds – A new look at prediction markets and polling is pushing the odds of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office sooner rather than later, with Kalshi placing his 2026 premiership at 33% after 50 days ago was 51%. The numbers, paired with shifting public attitudes about
On Wednesday morning, the debate over Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future was no longer just about rhetoric or momentum. It was about math—numbers moving in real time as Israelis weigh the war’s end and what comes after.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten told viewers that Netanyahu may be out of office “sooner rather than later,” pointing to what prediction markets and polls are showing. “Bibi Netanyahu has pulled rabbits out of hats before, but his luck might have finally run out,” Enten said on air.
Enten said the odds of Netanyahu remaining Israel’s leader have taken a sharp turn recently. He cited Kalshi giving Netanyahu only a 33% chance of staying prime minister following Israel’s 2026 election. Enten contrasted that with where Netanyahu’s standing was just 50 days earlier—51%. “Netanyahu’s chances have been going down, down, down into the red sea,” Enten said.
The center of Enten’s argument is how the Iran war plays out—and how Israelis feel about what “ending now” would mean for their security. He pointed to an Israeli poll showing 58% of the country’s citizens do not believe it would be in Israel’s best security interests if the war ended “now.” Only 34% believe it would benefit Israel if it ended soon.
Enten added that an early end to the war would likely be “politically advantageous” for President Donald Trump—but that the same political payoff does not appear to follow for Netanyahu.
Another pressure point, according to Enten, is domestic politics closer to home: term limits. Enten said more Israelis now support limiting their prime minister’s time in office. and framed the shift as potentially the “biggest indictment” of Netanyahu. He reported that 61% of Israelis support a two-term limit on prime ministers once Netanyahu exits.
The tension in Enten’s framing isn’t subtle. Netanyahu. he said. has been in power off-and-on since he was in elementary school—having served more than 18 years as prime minister since first being elected in 1996. After that length of time, even small declines in public confidence and political support can feel like a turning point.
The discussion also lands in the shadow of Trump’s recent comments about Iran. Enten’s data report came a few days after Trump said Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept whatever deal Trump makes with Iran. In the clip, Trump said, “I call the shots. I call all the shots,” and added that “[Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”.
Benjamin Netanyahu Israel politics 2026 election Kalshi prediction markets Iran war Donald Trump prime minister term limits