Nearly $87,000 payoff: majors that return cash

A new long-run study following nearly 1 million students in Texas finds that bachelor’s degrees—especially engineering and architecture—tend to pay off within 15 years, even though earnings start behind non-college peers and outcomes vary sharply by major.

By the time most families finish running the numbers—tuition bills, living costs, the stress of repayment—there’s usually one question that won’t go away: when, exactly, does college start to pay back the money?

A new long-term study from a college accreditor is trying to answer that with unusual detail. Researchers tracked nearly 1 million students who enrolled in 86 public colleges in Texas starting in the 2008-09 academic year. then compared their earnings to demographically similar Texans who did not attend college.

Fifteen years after enrollment in a bachelor’s program, the typical student earned a cumulative $533,151. The comparison group who did not attend college earned $432,996. After subtracting education expenses. the average college student cleared $86. 806 more income than the average non-student—nearly $87. 000 in return over the period.

The payoff varied widely by major. Engineering and architecture degrees returned $204,686 over 15 years, while liberal arts came in at $35,410. Still, the study found that every major paid off “in the end,” even for students whose earnings may have taken longer to catch up.

“This study shows is that it’s a good value,” said Chelsea Pennucci, vice president of research and knowledge management at the accreditor.

For families weighing college in 2026, the stakes are bigger than academic planning. In 2024, Pew Research reported that only 22% of adults consider college “worth it” for students who have to take out loans. Armand Alacbay. chief of staff and senior vice president of strategy at the American Council of Trustees and Alumni. which was not involved in the report. said the conversation has gotten more urgent because of how expensive college has become.

“It has become a much more high-stakes conversation for families, because of how expensive college is,” Alacbay said.

The study’s design helps explain why many people still feel uncertain about the ROI story—because the cash flow doesn’t arrive immediately.

Researchers found Texans who chose college started out behind their peers who did not, in financial terms. The earnings gap peaked around year five, roughly when a typical college student might enter the full-time workforce. At that point, the college attender had roughly $34,000 less wealth, accounting for lost earnings and college costs. The college student caught up around year 10. From then on, higher earnings put the college student further ahead every year.

That timeline matters because it shows why some households feel the “worth it” question tightening long before the long-run math balances.

Part of why the accreditor chose Texas was the availability of what Pennucci called a “best-in-class, superb state longitudinal data system.” She said the report released in Texas was “the first of what we hope are many.”

Not every school delivered the same results. Students in bachelor’s programs at 27 Texas colleges earned more over time than non-students. while at two other campuses they earned less. The study did not name those colleges, but Pennucci said colleges with higher graduation rates generally yielded higher earnings.

That graduation-rate link is especially important because the report included students who didn’t finish their degrees. Nationally, only about three-fifths of college students complete their studies within six years. If students don’t earn a degree, they don’t get the salary bump associated with it.

Beyond the question of whether college pays off, the new findings also push into which majors do the best job turning tuition into lifetime earnings.

Programs aligned with high-paying careers brought more financial return than degrees in traditional academic disciplines. Engineering and architecture topped the list in money terms, followed by business and economics majors. Degrees in the physical and social sciences delivered less payoff, and liberal arts finished last.

Some education leaders worry that turning the focus toward economic return could distort what college is for.

“I do worry about the whole focus on economic return,” said Ted Mitchell, president of the American Council on Education, and a member of the governing board of the Postsecondary Commission. “I think it is a fair focus, but I think it certainly shouldn’t be the only focus.”

Mitchell’s concern lands in the middle of a broader national debate about costs—especially as some colleges charge sticker prices that feel out of reach.

At least 16 colleges charge more than $100. 000 in tuition. fees. room and board to students who pay full fare. according to a June report from CNBC. The study’s Texas focus on public institutions is designed around actual longer-term earnings for students paying much less than the most expensive private price tags.

Still, the contrast between sticker price and what families pay is part of the larger story. The average net price in tuition and fees for an in-state student at a four-year public college fell by nearly half over the past decade after inflation. from $4. 400 in 2015-16 to an estimated $2. 300 in 2025-26. according to a report from the College Board. At private nonprofit colleges. average tuition and fees dropped from $19. 490 in 2015 to an estimated $16. 910 in 2025 after accounting for inflation and aid.

In Texas, the typical student spent a total of $13,349 on higher education over 15 years. That sum can feel shockingly low to families thinking in terms of full-price private college. and it is also closer to the reality for much of the country. The report said it is probably more representative of the 73% of college students nationwide who attend public institutions.

All of that lands at a practical moment in students’ lives: choosing a major that fits their interests, their finances, and their chances of finishing.

Alacbay said the early job search is where a major tends to help most.

“Your college major is very helpful in finding your first job,” Alacbay said. “But what about your fifth job, or your seventh?”

That question sits beneath the study’s strongest message—college can pay off over time—while also exposing the gap in how families typically plan. The return is real, but it isn’t instant, it differs by major, and it still depends on whether students make it to graduation.

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