Trump approval – A rolling national poll tracking President Donald Trump’s second-term approval shows him underwater in every state 16 months after taking office. Nationally, 38% approve and 58% disapprove, a net rating of -20, with battleground states also posting negative fi
On a map that tracks public mood state by state, President Donald Trump’s approval doesn’t just lag. It follows him everywhere—sixteen months into his second term, even in the places where elections usually tighten.
The latest figures come from a rolling Civiqs daily online tracking poll of 105,525 registered voters, covering January 2025 through May 19, 2026. The survey uses a large in-house panel and statistical modeling to produce rolling estimates rather than a single snapshot.
Nationwide, Trump’s approval stands at 38 percent, compared with 58 percent disapproval. That leaves him with a net approval rating of -20. The map’s headline is stark: he is underwater in every major swing state and across all states shown in the dataset.
In deep red territory, his support looks durable. Wyoming posts 59 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval, producing net approval of 24 percent. West Virginia shows 55 percent approval to 37 percent disapproval, for net approval of 18 percent. Other states in the same broad lane—North Dakota. Oklahoma. Idaho and Tennessee—also show approval comfortably ahead of disapproval. reinforcing how some Republican strongholds remain firmly in place.
But outside those core areas, the numbers compress. Indiana shows 49 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove, while Kansas is 49 to 44 and Mississippi is 49 to 46. In Missouri and Nebraska, approval and disapproval are essentially tied. Even in places like Kentucky and Louisiana, Trump edges slightly underwater rather than pulling away.
The tightness matters because battleground states are where small differences can decide large outcomes. Every major swing state in the poll lands in negative territory, though the gaps are not uniform.
Arizona is 42 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove. North Carolina reads 41 percent approve to 55 percent disapprove. Pennsylvania is 41 to 54, and Wisconsin is close behind at 41 to 55. Michigan is 38 to 57, and Nevada is 37 to 56. Georgia is among the most challenging swing states, at 37 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval.
Taken together, the map’s message is less about dramatic swings and more about persistence: Trump is underwater everywhere that is likely to shape future elections, but the deficits sit in a range that could move if political conditions change.
Opposition, meanwhile, looks entrenched in deep blue states. In Hawaii, 77 percent of voters disapprove, and Vermont shows 76 percent disapproval. Maryland follows with 72 percent disapproval, and Massachusetts with 70 percent. California, Washington and Oregon each show roughly two-thirds or more of voters disapproving. Across these states, approval rarely rises above 30 percent, suggesting stable opposition rather than momentary dissatisfaction. Compared with earlier snapshots in the tracking, the poll shows little evidence of meaningful movement.
The demographic breakdown helps explain why the map looks like it does. Younger voters are the most resistant: 70 percent of those aged 18–34 disapprove, compared with 23 percent approving. Voters aged 50 and older are far more evenly split.
Gender differences are pronounced as well. Men are close to evenly divided, while women disapprove by more than 30 points. Education also widens the gap: approval drops from 41 percent among non-college graduates to 25 percent among postgraduates.
Independents—often decisive in battleground states—lean negative. The poll shows 31 percent approving and 61 percent disapproving, a divide that helps explain why Trump is underwater in every swing state.
The White House response has remained consistent. The administration has downplayed the significance of recent polling and pointed instead to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public backing.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle said Trump’s mandate is rooted in the scale of that win. noting that roughly 80 million Americans cast ballots for Trump. Ingle also framed the administration’s focus around what it describes as core economic priorities. including jobs. inflation and housing affordability. while arguing that the president’s policies are still taking effect.
But the polling map being tracked in daily estimates presents a different picture: not a party divided cleanly between red and blue. but a more persistent national problem for a president who won office with strong Republican backing and limited support beyond his base. With midterms approaching. the remaining question is whether the narrow margins in swing states can be nudged—or whether the net negative figures simply hold steady as voters decide who controls Congress.
Trump approval ratings Civiqs poll state by state polling swing states midterms political polling American politics