Next week’s New York House primaries will put Zohran Mamdani’s political reach to the test, with several Democratic challenges—from Brad Lander vs. Dan Goldman to Darializa Avila Chevalier vs. Adriano Espaillat—setting up a potentially fierce fall race across
For the sixth straight month of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral term. politics in New York City is moving at the speed of a primary ballot—only now. the stakes feel sharper. Next week’s contests are not just about winning a nomination. They’re about deciding which campaigns carry momentum into the fall’s most competitive House races.
Mamdani is betting on a slate of Democrats seeking House seats across New York. endorsing three candidates running on city lines and setting up a series of left-leaning challenges. In the 10th District, Brad Lander, a former city comptroller, is running against Rep. Dan Goldman. In the 13th District, organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier is taking on Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Mamdani is also backing state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in the 7th District, a seat Democrat Nydia M. Velázquez is vacating.
All three Mamdani-backed candidates are pushing further left than the incumbents they’re trying to dislodge—though both of the opponents they face describe themselves as progressives. Espaillat and Goldman are members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Avila Chevalier and Valdez are both endorsed by the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. while their opponents hold that progressive label inside Congress.
The political contrast is clearest in the experience and positioning each campaign has managed to accumulate. Lander’s challenge to Goldman has looked strong for much of the year. landing Goldman on CQ Roll Call’s list of most vulnerable House incumbents last month. Avila Chevalier’s push has a different kind of momentum: her campaign received a high-profile endorsement late last month when Mamdani officially backed her.
But Espaillat enters his primary with establishment muscle. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigned with the congressman last weekend, joined by members of the Congressional Black Caucus.
Outside New York City, Republicans and Democrats are both treating the Hudson Valley as a pressure point. GOP Rep. Mike Lawler is likely to face what’s described as the toughest fight of his political career this fall in the 17th District. Democrats see the seat—one of the rare Republican-held districts in an area that Kamala Harris carried in 2024—as among their best pickup chances.
Tuesday’s ballot in the 17th District includes five Democrats. with Army veteran Cait Conley and Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson described as the presumed front-runners. Conley has been the beneficiary of fundraising strength and spending by outside groups including the New Democrat Majority. VoteVets and AFT Solidarity.
The advertising fight has turned personal in tone. A newly formed outside group called Progressive Champions PAC—allegedly tied to Republicans but not yet required to disclose its donors—spent $1.5 million on ads opposing Conley. Conley responded in a closing ad released this week. saying. “When I see Mike Lawler and MAGA Republicans lying about me. I know they’re scared. ” adding. “MAGA knows I will beat Mike Lawler and stop Donald Trump.”.
Lawler, meanwhile, has been building his own defenses in fundraising. He reported a $4.3 million war chest earlier this month.
North and farther upstate, the Republican primary stakes are also high in the 21st District, where Rep. Elise Stefanik isn’t seeking reelection. Anthony Constatino. who won President Donald Trump’s coveted endorsement. faces state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. who is endorsed by the state Republican Party and the Conservative Party of New York State.
The winner is expected to face Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. who began running last year after Stefanik was named as Trump’s first pick to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Smullen. however. is the only nominee running in the Conservative Party primary and will be on the November ballot regardless of what happens Tuesday.
The shape of New York’s congressional race calendar is already taking form: in the city. Mamdani’s endorsements are testing how far left Democratic voters will go even against progressive lawmakers; in the Hudson Valley. the pressure is aimed at a Republican seat Democrats see as winnable. with outside spending intensifying the noise around Conley and Lawler.
Zohran Mamdani New York primaries House races Brad Lander Dan Goldman Darializa Avila Chevalier Adriano Espaillat Claire Valdez Nydia M. Velázquez Mike Lawler Cait Conley Beth Davidson Elise Stefanik Anthony Constatino Robert Smullen Blake Gendebien