Democratic incumbent Karen Bass remains the clear favorite to win the Los Angeles mayoral race in both polling and prediction markets, but a tightening contest and declining undecided vote point to a potentially competitive November runoff. The contest has effectively narrowed into a three-way race between Bass, who has been endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris, television personality Spencer Pratt, and Democratic Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman. Prediction markets show Bass firmly ahead, with Polymarket pricing her at roughly 66 percent and Kalshi
at 67 percent.Emerson College polling from May 2026 put Bass at 30 percent, Pratt at 22 percent and Raman at 19 percent, with undecided voters dropping sharply.An earlier Emerson College poll from March 2026 showed far higher uncertainty, with up to 51 percent undecided.Internal polling suggests Bass may be stuck in the low-to-mid 20s, while Pratt and Raman compete for a runoff spot.Wildfire politics remain central, with Pratt aggressively attacking Bass over the 2025 fires and the ongoing Sandy Fire response. With the Los Angeles
mayoral primary approaching on June 2, fresh polling and prediction markets show Bass leading but facing a narrowing challenge from Pratt. Late shifts remain possible as undecided voters break and the race consolidates. The top two candidates will advance to a November runoff if no candidate wins a majority. Newsweek has contacted the leading mayoral campaigns for comment. Why It Matters The race has crystallized around Bass’s incumbency record and voter frustrations over homelessness, public safety and wildfire response, which have become defining campaign issues.
Pratt, who starred in MTV’s The Hills and is a registered Republican running for mayor as an independent, has leaned heavily into attacks over the 2025 Palisades Fire and the ongoing Sandy Fire, making disaster management a central dividing line in the contest. What The Prediction Markets Show Prediction markets are trading platforms where prices, expressed as percentage chances, reflect the crowd’s estimate of an outcome’s likelihood, often aggregating information faster than polls but vulnerable to bias, low liquidity and speculative swings They continue to
place Bass in a strong position, but not an unassailable one. At the time of writing, on Polymarket, Bass was trading at roughly 66 percent, compared with roughly 22 percent for Pratt and about 10 percent for City Councilmember Nithya Raman. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, showed a similar hierarchy, with Bass priced at 68 percent, Pratt at 25 percent, and Raman at 9 percent. These markets reflect a broad consensus: Bass is favored to win or at least reach the November runoff, while Pratt is
now clearly priced as her main challenger rather than a fringe candidate. What The Polls Show The most recent public data paints a tightening but still Bass-led race. Overall trend: Bass leads across most public polls, but the race behind her remains tightly clustered, with Pratt and Raman competing for a runoff spot. Emerson College poll (May 2026): Bass: 30 percentPratt: 22 percentRaman: 19 percentUndecided: 16 percent Tavern Research poll (May 2026) Bass: 22 percentPratt: 18 percentRaman: 16 percentUndecided: 29 percent (drops from 46 percent
after leaners prompt) Earlier benchmarking (March polling snapshot across Emerson, Berkeley IGS and UCLA Luskin): Bass ranged between 19 percent and 25 percentPratt and Raman both clustered in the low-to-mid teensUndecided voters reached as high as roughly 40–51 percent Poll average (four surveys since early March): Bass: 23 percentPratt: 13 percentRaman: 13 percent Key takeaways: Bass consistently leads but remains below a majority threshold, pointing toward a likely runoffPratt has emerged as the clear second-place contender in recent polling, though his margin over Raman remains
narrowRaman remains competitive and is within striking distance for a top-two finishUndecided voters have fallen sharply from around 40–50 percent in March to the mid-teens or lower in May pollsInternal and commissioned polling suggests Bass may be capped in the low-to-mid 20s, despite leading the field Full Poll Details An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted May 9–10 among 1,000 likely primary voters (with a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error, and a Los Angeles subsample of 350 likely voters at plus
or minus 5.2 percent) found Bass at 30 percent, Pratt at 22 percent, and Raman at 19 percent. Support has risen across the top three candidates since March, when Bass was at 20 percent, Pratt 10 percent and Raman 9 percent, indicating that undecided voters are now breaking decisively. That shift is critical: the same Emerson dataset shows undecided voters falling from 51 percent in March to just 16 percent in May, a rapid consolidation of the electorate. Earlier polling underscores how fluid the race
has been. A UCLA Luskin survey conducted March 15–29 among 813 likely voters, with a plus or minus 4 percent margin of error, found Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 11 percent, Raman at 9 percent, with 40 percent still undecided. Similarly, a UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll conducted March 9–15 among 840 likely voters showed Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 14 percent and Raman at 17 percent, with 26 percent undecided, reinforcing the fragmented early landscape. A more recent Tavern Research poll commissioned
by Growth Machine Fund and Abundance Network, a civic group focused on pro‑growth policy, fielded May 1–4 using text-to-web methodology among 531 likely voters, with a 6.1 percent margin of error, put Bass at 22 percent, with Pratt at 18 percent and Raman at 16 percent. That pollster argued Bass was only narrowly behind her challengers in some configurations and described the race as unusually weak for an incumbent with near-universal name recognition. Fire Politics And Campaign Attacks Wildfires have become one of the most
emotionally charged issues shaping voter perceptions. Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, has repeatedly attacked Bass’s leadership, framing the disaster as a failure of preparedness and response. In one X post during the current Sandy Fire, he wrote: “While Karen Bass is worried about getting meth-heads new grills, the LAFD has 3 dozen LESS firefighters than we had when the Palisades Fire hit.” He has also argued that decisions around water access and firefighting strategy worsened the earlier blaze, drawing contrasts with
the current fire response. Bass has defended her record and, following the 2025 Palisades Fire, removed Fire Chief Kristin Crowley, a decision she said was in the interests of public safety. In terms of the Sandy Fire, Bass said in a statement that officials do “not expect the wildfire to reach the City of Los Angeles”, they were “closely monitor[ing] the situation,” and that LAFD had deployed “strike teams, a hand crew, and helicopters” to support Ventura County crews.
Los Angeles mayoral election, Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, Nithya Raman, June 2 primary, November runoff, wildfire politics, Palisades Fire, Sandy Fire, Polymarket, Kalshi, Emerson College, Tavern Research