Iowa Democrats race an uphill tide to win Congress

Iowa Democrats’ – As Iowa’s June 2 primaries approach, Democrats see a rare opening to chip away at a GOP lock on national power—while Iowa’s sheer Republican registration edge, competitive GOP primaries, and massive outside spending show just how hard the fight will be.

DES MOINES, Iowa — In a state where Republicans control nearly every level of government, Iowa Democrats are still leaning forward as if the math could change fast.

Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz warned Iowa Republicans at a May 2 rally in suburban Des Moines that Democrats have “put a bullseye” on the Hawkeye State. He said Democrats believe they can flip control of the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate away from Republicans by changing the outcomes of Iowa races.

At the center of that hope are a Senate opening. a governor’s race that has drawn national attention. and two U.S. House seats that the parties are treating as serious pickup opportunities. But the ground they’re trying to cover is uneven. Iowa registered voters are overwhelmingly Republican: registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats by nearly 200,000. Republicans also hold all six seats in Congress. both chambers of the state Legislature. and every statewide elected office but one.

“Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points in 2024. ” the statewide political reality remains hard to ignore—especially as national midterm conditions trend against Republicans. with polling showing voters souring on Republican President Donald Trump. gas prices skyrocket amid war with Iran. and the cost of living remains high.

For Iowa, the pressure is sharper: trade wars and high costs threaten a renewed farm crisis in the state’s agricultural economy. Iowa Republicans, however, are making their case just as forcefully.

At a March event with the Polk County GOP, Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking another term, said, “We have the record, we have the numbers.” She added: “If we show up, we will win.”

The June 2 primary is where the candidates will be chosen—first, in the tight Democratic U.S. Senate contest, then in a governor’s race Republicans hope they can still shape, and finally through congressional primaries that will set up what Iowa becomes in the general election.

A Senate contest where Democrats are trying to turn hopes into votes

One of the most watched races in Iowa is the Democratic nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst announced last year she would not run in 2026, leaving the seat open and raising Democrats’ hopes of reclaiming it. Democrats have not held a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa since longtime senator Tom Harkin retired in 2015.

The Democratic field includes state Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs and state Sen. Zach Wahls of Coralville.

Both candidates are running aggressive primaries and arguing they are the more electable choice for November.

Turek. who has framed his campaign around personal grit. touts his experience on the trail and his background as a gold medal-winning Paralympian representing Team USA in wheelchair basketball. He says he grew up with spina bifida. endured 21 surgeries before age 12. and calls himself “battle tested” after winning his Iowa House seat in a western Iowa district that Trump carried.

In his telling, the campaign path ran through doors and communities—not ideology.

“I went out. and I crawled stairs and I knocked doors dragging my wheelchair up there to have a conversation with every single person in the community. ” he said. “That didn’t matter, Democrats, independents, Republicans. Talked to them all, and talked about the issues they cared about. And I won my first election by just six votes.”.

Wahls, meanwhile, is positioning himself as a fighter against what he calls a rigged political system. He rose to prominence after giving a viral speech at age 19 on the Iowa House floor defending his two moms’ right to marry.

“Iowans want a fighter who has that courage to challenge a broken system and the status quo that is failing our state. I think that’s the core contrast in this race for Democratic primary voters,” Wahls said. “I’m willing to fight back against an establishment that has failed Iowans over and over again. Rep. Turek is being supported by that establishment.”.

Their messages overlap in broad strokes, but diverge in tone: Turek cuts a more moderate image while Wahls leans more progressive. That split mirrors Democratic primaries across the country.

One flashpoint is Senate Democratic leadership. Wahls has said he will not vote for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if elected, and he has called on Turek to do the same. Wahls criticized Turek as being too aligned with the Democratic political establishment.

“If he doesn’t have the courage to take on the failed leaders in our own party, he won’t be able to take on Donald Trump either,” Wahls said.

Turek pushed back during a May 5 debate, saying he is “not a D.C. insider.” He said, “I don’t know these folks,” and added: “I only have one idea with this. And that is: I am not measuring the drapes.”

The unease among Iowa Democrats isn’t just about the rhetoric—it’s about money and influence.

VoteVets, an outside group that has previously aligned with Senate Democratic leadership but denies any coordination in Iowa’s race, has spent $10 million on television and digital advertising and direct mail to support Turek since March 23, according to reports with the Federal Election Commission.

Even Turek acknowledges how different this race is when the sums are stacked: the $10 million figure dwarfs what the candidates themselves have raised and spent, with the campaign expected to shape the outcome.

Turek and Wahls have so far raised $3.5 million and $3.7 million respectively.

Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary is expected to face Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson. Hinson announced her Senate campaign just hours after Ernst said she would not seek reelection. She quickly secured major endorsements from Iowa political leaders, as well as Trump. Hinson also faces a primary from former state Sen. Jim Carlin, though she is heavily favored to win.

National spending is already lining up for the general election. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund said it will spend $29 million on behalf of Hinson, while the Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC plans to spend $13.4 million in Iowa.

Sand is energizing Democrats in the governor’s race; Republicans are choosing a nominee in June 2

The governor’s race may be the most destabilizing piece of Iowa’s political landscape for Republicans.

Nonpartisan elections analysts at the Cook Political Report have labeled Iowa’s governor’s race as a “toss-up,” placing it in the most competitive category the organization tracks.

“The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner,” wrote Matthew Klein, an analyst who focuses on gubernatorial contests.

Democratic state auditor Rob Sand has energized Iowa voters and generated national media buzz by building what supporters say is a strong campaign operation.

Sand started early and aggressively, completing a 100-stop public town hall tour before presumed GOP frontrunner, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, formally got into the race. Sand plans another 100-stop tour this summer. arguing it will raise his profile among prospective voters. especially in small towns and rural areas that have abandoned Democrats in recent election cycles.

Sand said he believes that even if voters don’t completely agree with him, they’ll respect him for having the conversation.

According to the campaign, Sand met with about 10,000 people across all 100 of his town halls, taking roughly 750 questions.

He presents himself as an independent-minded Democrat fed up with the two-party political system. On the campaign trail, Sand argues that single-party control of government has led to abuses of power.

“We all know the phrase ‘power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely,’” he said as he embarked on his statewide tour. “And now we can say it also takes 10 years. Ten years of one-party control.”

He insisted the message isn’t partisan.

“I invite you to visit the state of California. I invite you to visit the state of New York,” he said. “There, you will find problems. … Either party, when left to its own devices, will begin to serve insiders and special interest groups.”

Sand also has the kind of funding that changes how quickly a campaign can travel—and how hard it can hit.

Sand has raised nearly $28 million since the start of his campaign, boosted significantly by his wealthy in-laws, whose contributions amount to about $11.5 million.

He has used that war chest to begin airing a series of accountability-focused television ads, while his opponents are locked in a competitive primary.

Five Republicans will appear on the June 2 primary ballot: Feenstra, state Rep. Eddie Andrews, businessman Zach Lahn, former state Rep. Brad Sherman, and former state administrator Adam Steen.

Feenstra entered the race as the presumed frontrunner with millions already at his disposal and backing from some of the state’s top elected officials. His campaign emphasizes making Iowa a business- and ag-friendly state. improving education. reducing property taxes. and increasing access to quality and affordable health care.

Feenstra also touts his work helping secure Trump’s agenda in Congress, including helping to author portions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Trump issued a key endorsement in Feenstra’s favor just days before the primary, which could help bolster his chances.

But Iowa’s MAGA-aligned Republican base has treated Feenstra with skepticism, and that mood has intensified as he avoids many public-facing events, including multi-candidate forums and primary debates.

As Election Day nears, Feenstra faces the threat of failing to reach the 35% threshold needed to secure the nomination outright. If no candidate hits that benchmark, the nomination will be decided by a group of grassroots delegates at a statewide convention June 13.

In the final days, Feenstra’s campaign has targeted Lahn, a businessman, entrepreneur, and farmer who has aligned himself with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.

Lahn has gained momentum by centering his message on fighting special interests and corporate monopolies, as well as Iowa’s rising cancer rates and problems with water quality.

“We don’t have time to ignore the problem anymore,” Lahn said of Iowa’s cancer and water problems. “And I think Iowans know that.”

Lahn has also aired TV ads emphasizing his conservative roots, arguing that “Marxists” have “hijacked” public school curricula and that government jobs should not go to H-1B visa holders as a way to end illegal immigration.

On fundraising, Lahn outraised Feenstra in the fundraising period that ran from Jan. 1 to May 14, though Feenstra has raised more overall. Lahn self-funded the bulk of his campaign and contributed $2 million to the effort.

Also on the GOP ballot are state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Rep. Brad Sherman, and former state administrator Adam Steen.

The congressional races where Iowa becomes a national battleground

Iowa’s two congressional seats that are most likely to pull national attention are already treated as must-watch by the parties.

Cook Political Report rates two of Iowa’s four congressional races as “toss-ups,” and said there are just 18 such races in the country.

In the 3rd District, which encompasses the Capitol city of Des Moines, the race is perhaps the state’s swingiest. The district’s registration shows about 36% registered Republicans and 31% registered Democrats, with another 32% no-party voters.

Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn is currently the incumbent. He faces a challenge in the form of Sarah Trone Garriott, a state senator from West Des Moines. Both candidates are unopposed for their party’s nomination.

In Iowa’s southeast corner, Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan are preparing for what could be their third race against each other since 2022.

Even with party challengers still on the calendar, Miller‑Meeks and Bohannan have largely been operating in general election mode ahead of the June 2 primary. Each has stockpiled more than $4 million for one of the nation’s top targeted U.S. House battles.

Democrats have also identified Iowa’s 2nd District as a possible pickup opportunity under the right circumstances. That seat is open after Hinson decided to run for U.S. Senate. Cook Political Report has shifted the race from “Solid R” to “Likely R. ” saying Democrats “have a better shot” at competing now that Hinson is running for another position.

The Democratic field in the 2nd District includes state Rep. Lindsay James of Dubuque, who has emerged as the party’s fundraising leader, followed by former Cedar Rapids nonprofit leader Clint Twedt-Ball and former Kirkwood Community College Dean of Nursing Kathy Dolter.

On the Republican side, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell of Clear Lake is the frontrunner in the GOP primary, building a massive fundraising advantage over state Sen. Charlie McClintock of Alburnett, and collecting endorsements from Trump and national Republicans.

Where it stands heading into June

The June 2 primary is shaping into something more than a party contest. It’s the gatekeeper for whether Democrats can make Iowa’s tightest races feel less like long shots and more like a credible route back toward national control.

Cruz’s warning about a “bullseye,” Sand’s stadium-sized town halls and funding, and the high-dollar outside spending aimed at shaping the U.S. Senate contest are all part of the same story: Iowa is being treated like a lever.

For now, Republicans still hold the statewide and congressional foundation. Democrats still need the pieces to click at once—candidates who can win their primaries. enough momentum to overcome Iowa’s registration advantage. and enough alignment between national pressure and local urgency to turn targeted races into results.

Des Moines Register reporters Stephen Gruber-Miller and Marissa Payne contributed to this report. Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She writes about campaigns, elections and the Iowa Caucuses.

Iowa elections 2026 Ted Cruz Rob Sand Joni Ernst Josh Turek Zach Wahls Ashley Hinson Randy Feenstra Senate Leadership Fund Senate Majority PAC Cook Political Report U.S. House races Donald Trump farm economy