Beef is off the menu at many cookouts as shoppers make tradeoffs at the meat counter.
The high price of beef is changing what families put on the grill this summer as shoppers swap steaks for chicken, pork and less expensive cuts of beef to make cookouts more affordable.
The shift is already showing up in grocery carts across the country. Sam’s Club’s analysis of 2025 Fourth of July purchasing trends found chicken was the top grilling protein in 19 states, while pork ribs led in another 15, suggesting shoppers may be rethinking their summer menus as beef prices remain high.
Federal data shows beef prices were still climbing in June, while the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Fourth of July cookout survey found the average holiday meal for 10 people reached a record $73.82, up 4% from last year and the highest since the survey began in 2016.
Years of drought and slow herd rebuilding have left the United States with fewer cattle available even as demand stays strong.
“The current tight supply on the number of cattle available in the U.S. is holding down the supply growth,” said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo.
Why beef isn’t getting cheaper
Ground beef now averages $6.83 a pound nationally, while beef steaks hover near $13 a pound, according to recent federal data. Both are more expensive than they were a year ago, and economists say prices are unlikely to ease soon.
The nation’s cattle herd remains near its lowest level in decades after drought prompted many ranchers to reduce their herds. Rebuilding takes time, leaving beef supplies tight and prices elevated.
Tyson Foods executives said during the May 13 BMO Global Farm to Market Conference that raw-material inflation has persisted for nearly two years.
“Inflation is real. It is persistent,” Tyson CEO Donnie King said, noting the company had experienced raw-material inflation in seven of the previous eight quarters.
Swanson said consumers sometimes assume beef imports raise domestic prices, but imports actually help keep prices from climbing even higher.
“Imports actually hold down prices for the U.S. consumer,” he said, noting the United States produces only about 10% of the world’s beef supply.
The United States is importing more lower-priced frozen boneless beef to help supply the hamburger market and prevent even sharper price increases, Swanson said.
Food companies say they’re seeing that shift firsthand. In June, Hormel Foods executives said inflation continues to shape how shoppers approach the meat case.
“The consumer is strained,” Hormel President John Ghingo said, adding that consumers are increasingly deliberate and looking for value.
Chicken is winning the summer
Buying trends reinforce what economists and retailers are seeing as consumers branch out from red meat.
Chicken’s appeal is simple: It costs less.
Chicken breast prices are down 6.2% from last year, making chicken one of the few major proteins that is more affordable than it was last summer.
Swanson said the price difference is encouraging shoppers to substitute other proteins for beef.
“Chicken and pork are up only slightly from a year ago,” he said. “This makes them real protein bargains compared to beef.”
A July survey from Blue Yonder found 55% of consumers are buying less beef or have stopped buying it entirely. Among those cutting back, 44% said they are purchasing more chicken, pork or seafood, while 17% have switched to less expensive beef cuts.
Making cookouts more affordable
Phil Lempert, a grocery industry analyst and editor of SupermarketGuru.com, said consumers are becoming much more deliberate about how they shop.
Many are switching to chicken and pork, while others are reducing portion sizes. Some families are making sliders instead of full-size burgers to stretch a package of ground beef.
“People are finally discovering that the best way to save money on food is to stop wasting it,” Lempert said.
More shoppers are checking their refrigerators, freezers and pantries before heading to the store and building shopping lists around ingredients they already have, he said.
Retailers are responding with promotions. Walmart and Sam’s Club rolled out summer discounts on ground beef, ribs, wings, corn, cherries, ice cream and chips.
Retailers also say shoppers are moving from steaks to ground beef, from beef to chicken and from premium cuts to value cuts.
Still, shoppers should not expect beef prices to come down anytime soon.
Lempert expects beef prices to remain elevated through the end of the year. Rebuilding the cattle supply takes time, and ranchers continue to face higher costs for transportation, fertilizer and animal feed, he said.
Swanson said consumers should not expect a meaningful increase in the cattle supply this year.
Until supplies improve, shoppers will likely keep making tradeoffs at the meat counter.
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How to save on summer grilling
Looking to spend less at your next cookout? Experts recommend:
- Choose chicken or pork. Both remain significantly less expensive than beef.
- Try less expensive beef cuts. Ground beef, chuck, sirloin and tri-tip cost less than premium steaks.
- Make smaller burgers or sliders. A pound of ground beef goes further.
- Buy frozen ground beef. It can cost 25% to 35% less than fresh.
- Shop your refrigerator and pantry first. Build meals around ingredients you already have.
- Watch for retailer promotions. Stores are discounting ribs, wings, ground beef and other grilling staples throughout the summer.