Harris leads, – A new McLaughlin & Associates survey released June 25 shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Democratic likely voters while Vice President JD Vance tops the Republican field. The numbers come as other polls offer a less settled picture—especially among Dem
Vice President Kamala Harris is out front among Democratic likely voters, while Vice President JD Vance commands a wider lead inside the Republican race for 2028—even as the broader primary picture keeps shifting from poll to poll.
The first signs of the 2028 matchup are sharpening as the Democratic National Committee takes in pitches from 12 states about which states should lead the Democratic primary. The order matters: it can determine who gets early attention. who locks in momentum. and how much money campaigns can spend before voters have even fully settled.
In the latest snapshot, a McLaughlin & Associates survey released June 25 put Harris at 26% among likely Democratic voters. California Gov. Gavin Newsom followed with 16%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York was at 9%.
The survey also showed a stronger gap on the Republican side. Vance led with 35% among likely GOP voters, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 15%.
The poll was conducted June 17 to June 23 among 464 likely voters.
For now, President Donald Trump has declined to endorse a successor. At a May 11 White House event, he praised both Vance and Rubio as a potential “perfect ticket,” but made clear he was not offering an endorsement.
“I do believe that’s a dream team, but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstances,” Trump said. “I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”
Other polls show a different picture, especially among Democrats. An AtlasIntel poll conducted May 4 to May 7 found Ocasio-Cortez leading Democratic candidates with 26%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Newsom followed. Harris ranked fourth, with roughly half of Ocasio-Cortez’s support.
On the Republican side of that same AtlasIntel snapshot, Rubio led with about 45% of primary voters, while Vance and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailed behind.
An Emerson College poll released later in May added another turn. Buttigieg led Democrats with 18%, followed by Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, while Harris again placed fourth and was tied with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
For Republicans in the Emerson College poll, Vance narrowly led with 36%, just one point ahead of Rubio.
The sequence of numbers—Harris first in one survey. Harris fourth in others; Vance leading in the most recent poll while Rubio or near-ties appear elsewhere—creates a simple tension for the 2028 race: early momentum may depend as much on which voters are being tested and when as it does on a candidate’s ceiling. With the DNC now weighing state order pitches from 12 states. the question for campaigns is not just who’s ahead on paper. but who will be positioned to look inevitable when the primary calendar starts to bite.
2028 Democratic primary Kamala Harris JD Vance Gavin Newsom Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Marco Rubio McLaughlin & Associates poll AtlasIntel poll Emerson College poll DNC primary order